(1/4) After more than a month of heavy fighting, Russian forces now control the majority of Sieverodonetsk. Russiaβs urban warfare tactics, which are reliant on heavy use of artillery, have generated extensive collateral damage throughout the city.
(2/4) Elements of Ukrainian Armed Forces, along with several hundred civilians, are sheltering in underground bunkers in the Azot Chemical Plant, in the cityβs industrial zone.
(3/4) Russian forces will likely be fixed in and around Azot whilst Ukrainian fighters can survive underground. This will likely temporarily prevent Russia from re-tasking these units for missions elsewhere.
(4/4) It is highly unlikely that Russia anticipated such robust opposition, or such slow, attritional conflict during its original planning for the invasion.
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(1/6) Over the last 24 hours, Russian forces have likely continued to attempt to regain momentum on the Popasna axis, from which they seek to surround the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south.
(2/6) In Russia, the war has accelerated the stateβs long-term trajectory towards authoritarianism. In recent weeks, the Duma has started the process to introduce a 20-year sentence for Russians who fight against the Russian Federation.
(1/7) All of the main bridges over the Siverskyy Donets River, which link the contested town of Sieverodonetsk and Ukrainian-held territory, have now highly likely been destroyed.
(2/7) Ukraine has probably managed to withdraw a large proportion of its combat troops, who were originally holding the town. The situation continues to be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian forces and civilians remaining east of the river.
(1 of 5)
Russia's operational main effort remains the assault against the Sieverodonetsk pocket in the Donbas and its Western Group of forces have likely made small advances in the Kharkiv sector for the first time in several weeks.
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On 10 June, the First Deputy Chairman of Russia's Military Industrial Commission predicted that state defence spending will increase by 600-700 billion roubles (GBP 8.5 -10 billion), which could approach a 20% increase in Russia's defence budget.
Over the weekend, the battle around Sieverodonetsk has continued to rage. Over the coming months, river crossing operations are likely to be amongst the most important determining factors in the course of the war.
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The key, 90km long central sector of Russiaβs frontline in the Donbas lies to the west of the Siverskyy Donets River.
Russia is using its overmatch in force ratio and artillery to gradually seize territory in and around Sieverodonetsk.
(2 of 5)
Russia continues to seek to generate more combat units to deploy to Ukraine. In recent weeks, it has likely started preparing to deploy the third battalion from some combat formations.
(1/6) As of 10 June, Russian forces around Sieverodonetsk have not made advances into the south of the city. Intense street to street fighting is ongoing and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties.
(2/6) Russia is massing fires with its artillery and air capabilities, in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.