Magdi M. Amin Profile picture
Jun 22 7 tweets 2 min read
I see the Reuters article on the port deal in #Sudan generated some heated debate. I’m late to the party but would like to weigh in on a few points.

reuters.com/world/middle-e…
1. It should be clear that the future civilian, democratic government will welcome private investment that develops Sudan’s resources & creates jobs, especially for youth. Port investments are vital; efficient logistics are needed for agricultural productivity and lower costs.
2. Now is not the time to negotiate or announce large port investments (or privatize SOEs). Why? In similar experiences elsewhere, the key issue is political risk in several forms, as well as transparency.
3. No serious investor will commit long-term capital when major political changes, i.e., new government, a new constitution, and possible changes to the federal structure, are on the table and change is imminent. They don't need perfection, but with big changes, they will wait.
4. Citizens should be wary. Cost of long-term finance for a port is determined by risk. High risk = high cost. To make the deal profitable, port fees will be high or the investment lower (concession fee, community, infra, etc.). In the end, the citizen, user or state will pay.
5. Good investors know that countries with political insecurity and weak institutions may politicize such deals or use concessions (infra, mining, privatization) for political patronage. Even if they don’t intend this, the perception can create reputational or operational risk.
6. The solution: move forward with the civilian transition to democracy (path to stability) and do the deal transparently+competitively. The future Sudan will prioritize sustainable, productive private investment from serious players, especially transport and agriculture.

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