Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 24 11 tweets 4 min read
#Ukrainian forces continue to surrender in the Lysychansk area, and some, including who appears to Max (Maksym) Butkevych, co-coordinator of the NGO No Borders Project, are filmed stating that they were abandoned by higher command. Note while I detest abuse of POWs (which we have
seen in this war, almost entirely from the UA side), and this can include propaganda footage of them, this does not automatically include all footage of all POWs. There is nothing wrong with filming them to show that they in fact exist & have surrendered, especially for Russia
whose statements are denied and/or ignored wholesale by mainstream media. You can also show them speaking as long as they are not being taunted or abused in any way. Of course, it is not pleasant to be a POW and an implied level coercion exists by merely being in enemy hands, but
this comes with the life of a soldier. I was among the first (the first that I saw) to point out the problems with filming POWs for propaganda purposes under certain conditions early on in the war when mainstream media and social media were having a field day with these often
criminal, sometimes brutal, and always dishonorable videos - as long as they were featuring Russian POWs. I was mocked at the time for caring about such "niceties" as the rights of POWs under the Geneva conventions. Now, that we mostly only see UA POWs, we hear these complaints
all the time, though usually technically incorrect or misguided.

We also hear reports of UA forces finally, reportedly with orders, attempting a complete withdrawal from #Severodoentsk to Lysychansk across the river. This may be too little too late, as they incur losses in
repositioning since so many routes are under #Russian fire control, and Lysychansk is just as much in the next cauldron as Severodonetsk. Unless UA troops withdraw to the Bakhmut - Siversk like (as I suggested many weeks ago) or even the Slovyansk - Kramatosk line, they are still
playing the political game of holding on to territory as long as possible in hopes of the west coming to their aid. It is a political game, detached from the quite serious military one happening in the #Donbass, and from the well being of the thousands of men in uniform trying to
do their duty under this regime, which does not often seem to reciprocate in honor nor in care. Ultimately this comes from ideology, not specifically any malice. The UA gov't believes mostly in its own existence, rather than have any broader view of the people(s) and nation(s)
that may live within it. Its own artificiality requires its ruthlessness. The east Slavic speaking peoples of the Ukraine (whether Russian speaking or Ukrainian speaking) are not facing an existential threat in this war, but the Zelensky regime is. At least in terms of a Russian
victory; a Ukrainian victory does in fact at least locally threaten the Russian language and culture to a significant degree. So, are UA troops withdrawing only to Lysychansk, or out of the salient? Can they hold the oil refinery at the key junction and Siversk? We shall see.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Jun 24
The southern sector of the #Lysychansk - #Severodonetsk salient, that is the Hirske - Zolote sector, is surrounded by #Russian forces and quickly being reduced. We were right on the mark, as this is now confirmed by many additional sources. The question is what is next?
Firstly we must note how the western media, as a mouthpiece for #Ukrainian announcements had not even acknowledged the capture of #Vrubivka, key to the closing of the cauldron, when the entire cauldron in fact was closed. Here we knew what had occurred.

With Vrubivka now well in the rear, we have some footage released showing the village is well within Russian lines. The encirclement completed the questions are how long UA forces within it can hold out, if they can break out and if they can be relieved or resupplied?
Read 25 tweets
Jun 22
Ladies and gents, we have our first complete major encirclement in the #Donbass. Not only long awaited but very hard fought, the UA regime, desperate to show the western powers that with support, it can in fact win, used (or abused) its troops to hold the salient to the maximum.
We are talking about the Hirske - Zolote cauldron, the southern part of the larger Lysychask salient. UA forces did not retreat from the cauldron until the very last possible moments. The best combat ready units have in the last day or two, withdrawn but other units remain in
their positions. We will look at evidence of this, but first let us note that what occurred, while UA sources still do not admit the loss of #Vrubivka (the key point for this maneuver), is the seizure of the Lokutivka - Rai-Oleksandrivka - Pidlisne complex along with Myrna Dolyna
Read 16 tweets
Jun 21
Lots happening in the last couple of days, huge fires break out in the last hour at the #Verkhnokamianka refinery due to shelling and strikes, the first of which started last night, and intensified greatly today. This large refinery is at the last critical junction of the Image
Lysychansk salient. Capture of this junction and/or #Siversk would complete the Lysychansk Severodonetsk encirclement. Will update further soon, travels once again delayed my updates, as brave soldiers on the ground on each side battle furiously for these critical positions. Image
#Popasna itself, the supply point for the RU forces executing the encirclement from the south and rear, is being mercilessly shelled by #Ukrainian forces. Despite their claim to being outgunned 10 to 1 in artillery, it certainly lately does not seem so in these areas where
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16
An update on this rapidly disappearing salient. Though reporting even from good sources was mostly silent on this, #Russian forces agreed with the importance of this salient, and are eliminating it as we expected. In the first major instance in the war #Ukrainian forces retreated
rather than become encircled, with Russian forces behind them on the main road (M03), ahead in the main front, and closed in by the Vuhlehirske Reservoir on their west. The small cities of Svitlodarsk, Luganske & Myronivkyi quickly fell to RU forces.

The highly fortified & entrenched front line that had held for years was gone, but the UA forces were saved. Though the power plant was reported seized (after UA forces tried to blow the dam and flood the area, thankfully unsuccessfully (for the citizens of the area) by RU, it
Read 15 tweets
Jun 15
We may have our answer, not 18 hours after the post, we had the first unconfirmed reports of the #Russian capture of #Vrubivka. VIIRS data lends supporting evidence to this as it has been 54+ hours since the last hotspot data from Vrubivka on the 12th (captured in previous post).
There was heavy shelling on the 11th (preparation), less so on the 12th (in support of advance) & none (that we can see) thereafter. This pattern coincides with a RU assault on the town. At the same time, strikes continued north of Vrubivka around Loskutivka & Novoivanivka
towards where we would expect a additional advances to seal the #Zolote - #Hirsk cauldron, itself part of the larger & rapidly enveloping Severedonetsk - Lysychansk salient. If true, the town's capture seals the fate of the entire salient, by first sealing the fate of the smaller
Read 15 tweets
Jun 14
Since nightfall, we have seen signs of a #Russian counteroffensive in the #Kherson region where previously, RU forces had been content to resist #Ukraine's much touted offensive in the region that has yet to achieve any significant advance. RU forces may be going to the the coast
and the Halytsynove area (where they had been earlier in the war), in order to cut off UA forces fighting to take Oleksandrivka and #Stanislav. Indeed, around the same time we see the latter was shelled. It is also possible that RU forces are simply advancing north along the bank
headlong into the UA offensive, but more likely that they are attacking from the east, towards the Ukrainian flank as they attack south towards Stanislav. We shall see what if anything results from these actions, which seem like an escalation in scale from what we have seen in
Read 4 tweets

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