Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 29 12 tweets 5 min read
Satellite imagery recent as June 27 shows us the intense battles going on around the Lysychansk oil refinery (Verkhnokamyanka) and along the T-1302 highway (the Bakhmut - Lysychansk road). South of the refinery. most of the activity is west of the road, corresponding to the
#Russian momentum and advance westwards and northwards towards the river. There are intense strikes a far as the outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske (on the way to Siversk) & east of Sprine along the ridge. We see indications of Topolivka already overrun & action moving north of it.
Even in Berestove the activity is on its western outskirts, indicating Russia might be gaining control of the town. Though there are rumors and reports of a Russian river crossing from the north, sat imagery still do not show us evidence of it. Several older crossings remain
standing. This may well be part of a disinformation campaign as the threat of a Russian crossing has been almost as important as an actual crossing in pinning #Ukrainian troops along the Siversjyi river. These positions are favored especially since they are more likely to achieve
propaganda worthy success (ie images of destroyed pontoons and armored vehicles). While reinforcing success and not failure is an important part of offense, it is not generally a good strategy for defense. UA was better served stopping the Popasna advance from the south, than
hoping to stop another Russian river crossing from the north. In any event, a crossing may indeed happen soon in one or more places as the UA front collapses, but in this respect Russia's main job has simply been to threaten this crossing. Artillery, spotting and direct fire from
the northern bank will be enough to support the southern advance to the finish line in terms of this encirclement. Of course once the river is reached from the south, whether at Bilohorivka or elsewhere in the area, logistical routes will be established across the river.
Meanwhile, while Ukrainian counter-battery & artillery fire has slackened in the last few days in the Lysychansk sector as the front has collapsed, we still see significant UA fire northwards from points north of the Siversk Serebrianka Bilohorivka line where UA positions are
still entrenched and functioning. We have long discussed the inevitability of this encirclement (while much of the media mocked idea due to its pace, not matching their arcade-like expectations). The inevitability has increased at certain crucial steps, such as the capture of
Vrubivka (). However, it has never been inevitable, what happens has always depended on the brave men on the ground and their commanders, all the way to the top. UA could have strategically retreated. It could have taken actions to hold the key points.
Could have taken one of of many imaginable and unimaginable actions to change the ever more certain outcome. But it did not and has not. So we are the last moments before a fully encircled cauldron. It is of course, still not inevitable, but ever more likely. UA plays a dangerous
game, because as we have pointed out, defeat, surrender and collapse are contagious.

#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russia #Donbass

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More from @ZimermanErik

Jun 30
We have discussed this salient, and its likely encirclement for a long time. The #Lysychansk salient is now operationally encircled, that is significant resupply and reinforcement is no longer possible. Units may still run the gauntlet & attempt to flee. Reports indicate the oil
refinery is in #Russian hands, and that the Siverskyi Donets river has indeed been been forced with #Pryvilia already in RU hands as #Ukrainian forces withdrew. Nearly 2 months ago we discussed at the fall of Popasna, the clear danger to the salient & the likely Russian routes of
advance.
()

Once Vrubivka fell, it was almost inevitable.
()

The key junctions & settlements have been clear. This image reposted from the May 8th thread. Vrubivka recently fell, triggering the collapse of the Hirske Zolote section Image
Read 25 tweets
Jun 29
Quick update on this front. Thermal activity shows us the #Russian forces continue to press northwards into the refinery and along both its (eastern & western) flanks. We have some large fires breaking out. #Ukrainian resistance is still stiff there (as in most industrial areas Image
well suited for defense. There is defense from the high grounds in the north around Zolotarivka and we can expect more of it around Bilohorivka. Additionally there are some strong strikes around Pryvillia, yesterday and as recently as 4 hours ago near an existing river crossing. Image
This may indicate a Russian crossing attempt here or simply the tactical and strategic threat of one to maintain troops in the area pinned down and within the rapidly closing salient. There are plenty of reports however of Ukrainian forces, specifically the best units, fleeing to
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Nearly 20 days later we have additional movement on this "speculative" front. Long and difficult artillery battles have finally left the Vesele to Balakilia line secure, across the forest belt south to the Siverskyi Donets river. As we expected, along the rail line there has been
RU expansion of this front westward towards Andriivka. Then a few days ago reports emerged of Russia securing #Nortsivka north of the forest on the western flank of #Izium, which continues to be a place of constant & under-reported battles.

()

It seemed
to many only a move to help control the forest area from this base. Apparently however it was the first move in an attempt to encircle the whole forest sector from the west. This is what I speculated could happen though I thought this drive might come from the north around Bairak
Read 13 tweets
Jun 28
An update folks. The southern sector of the Lysychansk salient was liquidated quickly as we expected (), once it was fully encircled.

The #Azotal plant, also as expected played like a fast forward version of #Aozvstal partly due to a creative #Russian hook
which surrounded it within the larger encircling operation. This included drama with civilians with the plant as well as foreign fighters. We did not cover it much since many others were and I believe the more critical story is the wider encirclement happening, rather than the
specific capture of Azotal or even all Severodonetsk. The northern, larger and more important, sector of the salient remains. We discussed what we could expect here:



We can now update for the last 3 days, pretty much as such. The thermal data for
Read 8 tweets
Jun 24
#Ukrainian forces continue to surrender in the Lysychansk area, and some, including who appears to Max (Maksym) Butkevych, co-coordinator of the NGO No Borders Project, are filmed stating that they were abandoned by higher command. Note while I detest abuse of POWs (which we have
seen in this war, almost entirely from the UA side), and this can include propaganda footage of them, this does not automatically include all footage of all POWs. There is nothing wrong with filming them to show that they in fact exist & have surrendered, especially for Russia
whose statements are denied and/or ignored wholesale by mainstream media. You can also show them speaking as long as they are not being taunted or abused in any way. Of course, it is not pleasant to be a POW and an implied level coercion exists by merely being in enemy hands, but
Read 11 tweets
Jun 24
The southern sector of the #Lysychansk - #Severodonetsk salient, that is the Hirske - Zolote sector, is surrounded by #Russian forces and quickly being reduced. We were right on the mark, as this is now confirmed by many additional sources. The question is what is next?
Firstly we must note how the western media, as a mouthpiece for #Ukrainian announcements had not even acknowledged the capture of #Vrubivka, key to the closing of the cauldron, when the entire cauldron in fact was closed. Here we knew what had occurred.

With Vrubivka now well in the rear, we have some footage released showing the village is well within Russian lines. The encirclement completed the questions are how long UA forces within it can hold out, if they can break out and if they can be relieved or resupplied?
Read 25 tweets

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