Matt Warder Profile picture
Jul 20 6 tweets 2 min read
OK, so $AHQ.AX filed a strategic review…sucks for met #coal beta chasers.

But I’ve commented on several Spaces before that New Elk’s resurgence typically signals the end of a cycle, and even just given the ramp up costs and productivity concerns, it was never guaranteed. 1/x
The issues at hand for New Elk are obvious…far far far from both domestic and export markets on an unfriendly railroad to Met coal.

But more importantly it has very little mining history, which renders operational risk management almost impossible.

Both were problems. 2/x
The question I had six months ago was: sure, it works at high prices, but will prices stay high enough for long enough to make the asset profitable.

Well 6 months in and now we know the answer is “no”. 3/x
So while $AHQ.AX was always an interesting idea, there were just too many unanswerable operational and market questions to give it full attention…way too much easy value in $ARCH $AMR $CEIX $WHC.AX and others to warrant a big chunk of mental space. 4/x
But not everybody is privy to that perspective.

Aiden here frankly did a pretty good job assessing risk/reward at the outset, and sticking with his idea through a negative cycle, only to find both solid success and a full-on rug pull within a few months of one another. 5/x
That sucks. Most of us have made that mistake at one time or another, but it never gets any less visceral.

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More from @mfwarder

Apr 23
So @Twitter’s algorithm slapped a sensitive content warning on a tweet in which I complained about it slapping a sensitive content warning on a tweet that contained no sensitive content.

And now I’m interested to see how far their terrible algorithm will go.

Game on. 😂
This game is apparently the sensitive content algorithm version of the movie Inception™.

And I am losing.
OK so I wonder if this sensitive content warning was because I mentioned copyrighted IP?

Let’s see…
Read 7 tweets
Apr 22
I'm a liberal and a registered Democrat who happens to have worked as a coal markets analyst for close to a decade for a major global institutional research and consultancy firm.

So "coal nerd" in this case indicates I am professionally qualified to evaluate others' analysis 1/X
While I understand it's pretty splashy to pump articles with titles like: "Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by (politician's kid) says".



It's important to investigate the claims being made. 2/X
Let's start with the conclusion: "“Our findings are clear; Beijing’s plans for rapid decarbonisation and energy security signal the end for Australia’s current coal export boon,” Dr Gosens said"

It first might be good to see if there was, in fact, an "export boom"? 3/X
Read 14 tweets
Apr 22
US HRC #steel forward curve has been correcting for about a month, but near term prices (highlighted in white) showing more resilience than further out.

Got to keep in mind that with tariffs still in place there's a floor price here...possible it has four digits.
Not sure if an analogous dynamic could play out in prime #scrap too...busheling forward curve 1st contract flattening but out months continue to decline.
Coking #coal beginning to inflect lower, not terribly dissimilar to the trend we saw in #steel two tweets ago.
Read 4 tweets

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