Andrey Sizov Profile picture
Aug 8 11 tweets 4 min read
What has happened in the Black Sea since last Monday - THREAD
#wheat #corn #oatt

* 10 vessels left Ukrainian terminals thanks to the grain deal, mainly #corn. The total volume of food products blocked in the terminals since late February was 0.6 MMT

1/
* Wonder what the quality is after 5+ months on board…seems that the buyer of the first vessel Razoni with 26K of corn refused to accept the cargo

2/
* First two vessels arrived in UA terminals: Fulmar S (13K deadweight) & Osprey S (20K)...this is more important than blocked vessels…if everything is OK we could see fresh demand +freight & insurance offers

3/
* UA corn is likely to be more than welcome in the EU suffering from drought
* The grain deal works better than we thought…that’s unexpectedly kind of the Kremlin. Still feel there is some kind of big Russian-Turkey deal and the grain corridor could be just one puzzle piece
4/
* Overall the grain corridor agreement still looks fragile…there is a full-scale war and Russia-Turkey relations never has been predictable. If I were in Ukraine’s shoes I will try to ship as much as I can and as fast as I can -> bearish

5/
* Ukraine has exported 1.9 mmt of grain since June…-49% YOY. Will we see 2MMT+ in August?
* Russian exports remain sluggish….another 0.6 mmt shipped last week. Extremely slow pace for early August for such crop and S&D (bullish!)

6/
* Russian propaganda keeps talking about “hidden sanctions against Russian exports”...the reality is it’s just too expensive. Russian FOB is on par with MATIF, should be lower to boost the exports. The ruble market should tumble further or global prices should increase...

7/
* Are we close to a spike in #wheat prices? Could be if the May-August downtrend is broken at last…we still think that the downside is limited

8/
* Good rains (15-40 mm) helped UA #corn, RU was mostly dry but the setup for spring wheat remains good thanks to earlier rains

9/
* Rosstat issued important wheat area numbers…winter wheat - 16.7 mln ha (SovEcon est: 17.0 mln ha), spring wheat - 12.8 mln ha (SE: 12.7 mln ha). These numbers are substantially above USDA’s…they could reflect that in WASDE -> RU crop should be upped a lot in August / Sep 10/
* Based on sizov.report on the Black Sea
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More from @sizov_andre

May 19
What’s wrong with inevitable global food crisis prophecies. THREAD:
#wheat #corn

* Blocked Ukrainian grain terminals are a key factor supporting record-high prices. That has been priced in already – the war started almost three months ago.
1/ Image
* Ukraine is likely to decrease exports in 21/22 by 5 mmt of #wheat (and 12 mmt of #corn) compared to pre-war estimates
2/
* Other price drivers are worsening weather in Northern Hemisphere (US, EU) and export restrictions (India)
3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 10
A quick explainer of what has happened in Kazakhstan and what it could mean for the #wheat market. Hint: this could generate some bullish headlines.

* In 2019 the first KZ president Nazarbaev started the power transition

1/
* Nazarbaev resigned and appointed Tokayev as an interim president. Shortly after Tokayev won the presidential election (surprise!)
* Tokayev was #1 politician officially but the transition went very slowly, so in fact, Nazarbaev remained #1 decision-maker in the country

2/
* January unrest started due to economic problems, later some of the initial economic slogans were converted into political ones. The initially peaceful protest transformed into a violent one.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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