H I Sutton Profile picture
Aug 13 3 tweets 2 min read
**UPDATE**

#Russian Navy warships resting in Tartus Syria. The SLAVA class cruiser, 1 of 2 in Med, has been in same spot since at least Aug 8 (likely before)

Both the KILO submarines have been in port for a while

This is deterrent against NATO involvement in #Ukraine #OSINT Russian Navy
To clarify, Russia increased Navy in Med during the build-up for the invasion and has maintained it at an increased level since

It is to deter NATO from intervening, keep the war contained in Black Sea, by threatening a cost on NATO

Ref
Further clarity. There are a few comments challenging whether it is a deterrent to NATO

From an analysis perspective these Ru forces are there to serve as part of the deterrent against direct NATO involvement. That’s RuN doctrine.

Nothing to do with how survivable they are

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More from @CovertShores

Aug 12
*** #OSINT ***

Surprisingly, the Zubr class hovercraft in Feodosia, Crimea, Black Sea, has been moved since the start of the #Ukraine War

The Pr. 12322 Zubr is the largest type in the world

Thread/ Zubr Hovercraft, Crimea
2/
It is at Feodosia 'More' shipyard. This was Ukrainian but was taken over by Russia gov 100% in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.

In 2014 it became part of Rostec. Now in March this year, after the invasion, it was transferred to United Shipbuilding Corporation. No fee Zubr hovercraft
3/
In the past it built many of the Zubrs, including two for China. One of these was rushed off Crimea in 2014 moments before the annexation
Read 9 tweets
Aug 9
#OSINT

Provisional single-view geolocation of explosion at #Russian Navy Saki air base, Crimea, supports suggestion that at least one of the ammunition storage areas has explosions

Caveats apply, hope better efforts of geolocation can confirm/disprove Image
Calm before the storm, satellite image from 08:47 UTC today Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 4
***BREAKING***

Videos of another important naval action(s) off Crimea today.

Possibly #Ukraine hit a #Russian ship in north of Crimea (dark smoke).

Then Russian patrol ship near Sevastopol in second images, unclear what is going on

Awaiting further clarity Crimea Black SeaImageImage
This is very likely same Pr. 22160 class patrol ship seen firing decoys, also today off Sevastopol. #OSINT ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3
***BREAKING***

#Chinese missile destroyer operating East of #Taiwan this morning. Likely Type-055 Renhai class, described as a cruiser

ID not 100% but agreed probable among multiple experienced #OSINT analysts watching situation ImageImageImage
The #Chinese type-055 can carry a range of missiles including a new hypersonic missile provisionally identified as the YJ-21. See hisutton.com/Chinese-Hypers… Image
General info on type-055 navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 3
Quick thread on #Chinese submarine capabilities right now. Excuse typos

First up. China has been operating nuclear powered attack submarines, of its own design, since 1970s. Today the main type is the Type-09III (aka 093) SHANG Class (hisutton.com/Chinese-Navy-T…) Chinese submarine
2. These attack subs (SSNs) are generally better than many people would expect. We have seen the steady implementation of newer technologies such as towed sonar arrays and anechoic coatings.

But they are relatively few in number.
3. They are based in South China Sea, south of Taiwan. Generally their role is protecting the nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) but they would be expected to play a role in any conflict
Read 11 tweets
Jul 1
*Friday thought*

#NATO should bring back standard easy-to-say reporting names for #Russian navy ship classes

And retrospectively apply to Russian types from past 30 years where Russian first of class names were used

E.g. KRYPTO class:
STEREO class
Read 6 tweets

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