I am having a hard time keeping up - sorry for all these threads folks.

#Japan

The world is changing so fast...
🧵👇
reuters.com/article/us-jap…
After WW2 US dropped two massive bombs on Japan, McCarthur helped write Japan's pacifist constitution, as part of its terms for surrender

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitut…
Abe was a strong proponent to change the constitution - namely because China had become more and more aggressive in the region.

Chinas threats have become louder and more bold
skynews.com.au/world-news/chi…
Not only that, but Abe's comments to a free and democratic country of Taiwan really pissed China off.

Note that Abe was not in power - but he has influence.

China wanted him to stop with the Taiwan talk, but nothing would shut him up...

aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/2…
Until one day...
Why do you care?

Well, who is the #1 holder of USA debt in the world?
Japan also pays a LOT of money to host usa military in Japan.
cbsnews.com/news/japan-us-…
And we've had some issues in the past with our troops and the locals...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Okin…
Locals dont like this base on their land too much
wnycstudios.org/podcasts/takea…
Now, with Abe dead, and China becoming even more aggressive about Taiwan, I suspect Nancy's visit and a couple USA boats and crew is not coincidental.

vox.com/2022/7/26/2327…
And very few people know the history of WW2 - me included (dont feel bad). Taiwan had special significance to Japan because Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier - Japan used Taiwan to launch airstrikes against China.

youtube.com/shorts/bZHr1jp…
Because of this, Japan considers Taiwan a very special friend.
cfr.org/blog/shinzo-ab…
A country spends a LOT on military if it thinks war is imminent (or if the political machine has lost control of the military machine....)

China's response to Abe's comments on Taiwan:

Read this as political rhetoric

global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/26/WS…


Biden is under the thumb of Japan. Like it or not, we are a debtor nation. Japan owns our debt.

When your bank says do what we say or no more spice?

You take ORDERS.
I hate Mike Pompeo, but I will listen to what he says.
This speech in particular is incredible - a must watch if this thread was of any interest to you at all.

This is very good, and it sets a road map of whats likely coming in the future.

And i've seen some of this - when foreigners are harassed in a host country, it typically means nationalism is on the rise.

Nationalism includes abuse of those who are not normally part of your society.

This is a very bad omen...
I am not a big fan of tucker carlson - but this exchange was very good
The critical minute of previous video starts at 1:95 - listen closely to what he says.

Then listen to this - queued up at a choice moment - this is not widely reported in western media - Col Black is a republican and a former Senator.
Queued again - US senators are actively calling to use nuclear weapons against Russia.
At the dawn of our nation, our first president gave us a very stark warning:
I do not understand why China can make overt threats on twitter, be reported, but twitter censors do not take the post down and suspend the post authors account.

They literally threaten to nuke japan out of existence but twitter is ok with that?

weird.

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More from @frankoz95967943

Aug 28
Pakistan.

This is a very bad year for #pakistan.

There are about 220M people in pakistan - compared to USA population of 330M.

Most of pakistan is now under water.

🧵👇
Pakistan is #2 on the most indebted countries
They are just drowning in debt. Notice the dates.
Now they are literally just drowning.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 28
It is highly unusual for canadian dollar not to track oil
here is UUP vs oil
uup is the dollar; pink is oil and its inverted.

the fed is attempting to use USD strength to attack oil

Usually it works.

UUP has never been this high before.
And why is UUP so high?
Because japan sacrificed their currency to prop up the USD
USDJPY is a currency pair - if japanese yen gets weaker, USD gets stronger.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 26
uvix digging a little deeper....

canada's currency and bonds move with the price of oil
when oil price gets high their currency gets stronger. to counteract that, canada will lower interest rates (canada is an export nation - they dont want a strong currency)
🧵👇
on prior chart when red line goes up, the currency is getting weaker - notice the yellow line - thats their 30y bond. the gov can influence that bond actively (selling more or selling none) or just buying their own dogfood (qe)
Here i've added the purple line us30y bond
On the far left, it didnt follow the yellow line at all.
that changed in 2020
Read 15 tweets
Aug 26
I think we are in a massive swap state w/ interest rates.
I will dig into this over the weekend.

Here is the calculated vix - notice june 13th Image
Ive moved the calculated vix down
it lines up with the vix again Image
And one more time Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 26
A while back i modeled the vix - the formula worked very well.

As of june 13,2022 the model no longer works...

Its almost like vol is being...suppressed...
Image
Adding in UVIX and SVIX - 2 new products resurrected from the grave, with obvious impacts to the vix... Image
And now adding crude oil
somehow this instrument crushes oil as well. Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 22
I want to talk about this - very important.
🧵👇
Remember when i said UVIX was created in march 2022?

Someone - likely a big hedge (for the pow) or japan - someone big is gaming the vix.


I firmly believe this is being done to whack futures pricing - it hits stonk futures, but also OIL futures.
Sauds have now said enuf.

Hold on your popcorn boys and girls. If Saudis decide to cut production, its 1979 all over again.

Read 15 tweets

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