How much will mobilization cost? @Vladi_Moscou indicates that we are looking at 3-4 million Russian males that would be a) trying to escape Russia; b) hiding inside the country.
Police will first try to get them where they live then they'll try to get them where the work
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thus they will be falling out of normal economic cycle. Naturally, RU state won't be compensating those losses.
The war itself will radically increase the costs - which will make Kremlin increase taxes and that would lead to more of economy going in the shadow.
State will
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decrease all investment expect for military and security related.
If borders shut down - we should also forget about parallel import which will only increase sectoral collapses.
Inozemtsev says 3 months of mobilization will cost significantly more than 7 months of war before
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it.
In several months when thousands of caskets starting coming in we should expect "women revolution" who as Inozemtsev claims unlike men still maintain some sense of self-preservation.
All in all, he says - Russian economy will die in the winter 4/4 theins.ru/opinions/inoze…
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Karaganov is back! The godfather of Russian hawkish foreign policy thinking declares the war in Ukraine - Russia's "New Great Patriotic War" (1812 against Napoleon, 1941-45 Nazi Germany, 2014(1999) - ??? against the West)
Few points
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Karaganov claims: for Russia it is a question of survival, for West only survival of elites. He is taking Ukrainian: "If #Russia stops fighting there will be no more war. If Ukrainians stop fighting there will be no more #Ukraine" But with West and Russia respectively
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Says it all started in 1999 with the first NATO eastward expansion. Claims it was always a plan of the West to get Ukraine in.
Says the West for the last decade was preparing its citizens for war with Russia because it failed to resolve domestic issues
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🇷🇺 🇦🇲 🇹🇷 🇦🇿 1/6 Russia needs Turkey to be its “great parallel import hub” - to provide almost everything it can no longer buy from Europe. Since the war began Russian foreign trade had drop with almost everyone expect for Turkey. It is growing significantly.
Having Turkey turn its back on Russia would destroy transformation of Russia’s “adaption to war reality” leaving only China as the source “for everything”. In fact Turkey now is a bigger partner for new imports than China is.
2/6
Russia’s allied status with Armenia is based on a simple premise: Yerevan has nowhere to go. So if Putin believes Baku could be reasoned with in time - he seems okay to let Armenia bleed some more. Because again - where else would they go?
3/6
Presidential Administration of Russia and Sergey Kiriyenko are creating "technocratic propagandists". Is Russian propaganda - as is - not good enough? Is Kiriyenko trying to expand his influence further? Is it about pushing down new ideology?
Thread 1/8
Pertsev notes increase of trainings, seminars that Kiriyenko is organizing for political scientists in Russia. PA is trying to get them to be more in line with state agenda and engage in proper interpretation of events. Instead of giving 10 explanations to give a right one
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Key difference is that now all talking heads go endlessly explaining what happens abroad. It's easy - just criticize, you can't miss.
What is needed now - is to interpret domestic events in a proper light. Not many dare to do that.
But the core of Kiriyenko's "ideology"
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Russian economy after six months of war.
It is already clear that 2022 will lead to greatest economic contraction since 1990s. Not even 2008-09 with 8% decline will be a match.
But this economic crisis is not like the other.
Thread 1/8
War and sanctions lead to imports decline - so far it seems by the end of the year it would shrink by about a quarter.
Exports are on the decline as well:
Gas exports by 36%;
Steel and fertilisers by about 30%;
Coal by 29%;
Wheat by 27%;
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However, oil exports are so far on the rise. Embargo is planned for December so, we have EU countries stocking up.
With 3.41 million barrels/day Russia is making 20-35% more than last year with gas exports that shrank by 4x.
That gives Russia a trade surplus, Jan to Jul of
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A short history of Putin' war on Russian NGOs.
Started with: Putin inviting about 5000 NGO folk to join efforts and create effective tools of communication between state and civic society
Now: independent NGOs are in exile/underground or under immense scrutiny.
Thread 1/6
From 2000 to 2003-4 Putin did actually try to work with civil society, was trying to earn the respect of NGOs.
Then Orange revolution happened and Putin changed the modus operandi going for distancing and pouring money into GONGOs
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By mid to late 2000s it was already a relative struggle for independent NGOs with all the key characteristics of "fifth column" - agents of foreign influence discourse.
Number and quality of barriers kept increasing. 3/6
More than 5 months into this war 2/3 of Russians say that Russia is on the right track and only 22% think otherwise. In February, before the invasion, these figures were 50% and 39% respectively.
Why?
Thread 1/14
In 2021, the year before the war, 48% of respondents evaluated Russia’s economic situation as ‘average’; 41%, as ‘bad’; and as few as 9%, as ‘good’. In July of 2022, 57% perceive the country’s economic situation as ‘average’. Most importantly, 40% of Russians believe
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that in a year life in Russia will be ‘better than now’. Fewer respondents (27%) think it will remain ‘as it is now’, and even fewer sceptics (18%) expect life to be ‘worse than now’.
47% are convinced that Russia will see ‘some improvement in political life’ in a year
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