Thread by @GeoConfirmed

GeoConfirmed.

Thread on the Crimean bridge explosion based on all the video's that emerged and what you can see on the pictures.

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GeoConfirmed by @trbrtc, @TilmanPlan4Risk, @zcjbrooker and @NinaWilsonStats

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GeoLocation:

800m before the next span bridge.
2,30 km from Crimean land.

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https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1578617163384250368

So let's take a look on all the footage.
VID 1:

- Explosion on the place where the first truck is driving.
- Train is moving rather slow (left upper corner)
- Both in to the direction of Crimea (Rail bridge is oriented south of the normal bridge)

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1. B. The explosion was so big that even from camera perspective the wind was blowing the debris back from the upper right corner of the screen.

1.C. In the video you can also see the debris impacting the rail bridge, after the initial blast.

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1.D. Impacting debris landing on the train/train bridge.

1.E. The impact on the rail bridge is big enough to see all the impacting debris cascading down after hitting the rail bridge.

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VID 2:

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For the analysis of VID 2 we use this image.

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2.A. The explosion occurred after pillar 1, at the same place where the truck was driving.

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2.B. People claiming that they see an USV or a boat:

- It's just a wave, Kerch bridge is very windy: The wave is coming from the same side as the wind is blowing.
- If it was an USV or boat that caused the explosion, it was at the wrong side of the pillar...

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- Another theory was that it's a bow wave and that the boat is outside the screen... For what? Which reason?
To trigger such a huge explosion and then suddenly disappear? While after the explosion everyone is looking in that direction? Seems very unlikely.

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2.C. Another thing that people like to see is a little light at pillar 2 just before the explosion. (at 00:02)

But the same you see at the start of the video at 00:00.
So just seems another little wavetop.

Why would that 'light' do? Why you would have a light at all?

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2.D. The location of the camera is estimated 200m away from the blast. Its placed at pillar -1, the explosion occurred in between pillar 1 and 2. The distance of the camera is based on at least 50m between each pillar + the width of 2 bridges and the gap.

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2.D. Here you see the debris falling in front of the pillar 0. And from a higher angle, so its also falling on the rail bridge.

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VID 3: Here you see the aftermath.

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3.1:

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3.2:

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3.3:

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VID 04: Both bridges, side view.

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4. A: The collapsed bridge.

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4.B. The rail bridge.

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4.C. There are no indications that any of the tanks exploded. Each tank seems rather intact if you look at their shape.
We can assume that the damage was caused by the explosion from the other bridge and the burning tanks were responsible for the damage to the rail bridge.

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5. A new picture emerged while writing this thread.

There is no blast damage on top of bridge pillar 2 nor on the underside of the bridge.
We can deduce that the bridge was not displaced by a force that wasn't created on this location.

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Conclusion: based on the footage that emerged, until this time, it's likely this was a (S)VBIED.

Even so, you can only exclude other possibilities after an investigation at the blast site.

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If you have doubts about the power of a VBIED, this was a much smaller truck 👇

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For giving us inspiration for this thread i want to thank the whole @GeoConfirmed team, @OAlexanderDK, @trbrtc and @N_Waters89.

For more information about the @GeoConfirmed team 👇

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https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1578476194697457664

Satellite imagery from @Maxar showing the damage at Crimea Bridge.

It shows a circular burn mark on the bridge.

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https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1578833400420773888

A picture of the underside of the bridge was published.

Besides the hole in the road almost no other damage (burn marks, shrapnel, debris) is visible. Not on the left road bridge span, especially on the vertical element, nor on the opposing bridge pillar.

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