$IBN #banknifty #india This is my second part tweet on Indian banks (pls see tweet below if u missed it). We all know who the 2nd richest person in the world is right- Jeff Bezos. NOPE it’s Gautam Adani Who? Yeah exactly his cos trade at an absurd 200-400x earnings and are
Now I discussed in first Indian bank tweet that foreigners are super o/w the Indian financials. What if this guys fortune is just an immense Ponzi scheme and the banks are super exposed? I mean isnt it weird that the 2nd richest person in the world came out of nowhere? Hmmm.
All I know is that at peak valns and with foreigners super o/w its worth asking questions. inventiva.co.in/trends/worlds-….
Note this video below on SBI & other banks exposure to ADANI. Id contend that sbi and ibn (icici) share price are pretty similar in terms of performance and $IBN historically has had a ton of bad loans in the past to other industrialists. (If short of time hone in at 10 min mark
And id contend as an old EM hand, once a cockroach always a cockroach (icici bank ($IBN). livemint.com/news/india/ici…
These things happen at peak valns.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with contrarian 8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @contrarian8888

Oct 19
$RIG at today’s Grant conference Darren Mauphin from Pilgrim made some points on the offshore sector. 1. This summer a couple of Offshore names asked about contract extensions at the shipyards and the shipyards said we never ever want to work with you guys again- capacity is
Going to take a hell of a long time to come back. 2 EV of the sector at peak last time was 164B (2007) today its 19b. Heck SPACEX which does nothing for u (unlike offshore which is servicing a real need like finding oil) has a higher EV than the combined Offshore sector.
Over the past 8 years 50% of the capacity has been scrapped and taken out. Capacity is essentially back to the lows seen in 2004. (It doubled 04-14 and now back down to the lows again with the -50% scrapping of capacity).
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
$KWEB #china $FXI $IBN. Interesting to see that 90% of chinese A share profit alerts were +VE acc to jpm. In addition we see
Fund managers in china investing in their own funds (adding skin to the game at a time when sentiment is extremely -ve).
Chinese equities are at 30 year support and yet sentiment is in the toilet. Contrast this with where consensus is hiding- INDIA where the RBI is behind the curve, struggling with food and energy
Read 6 tweets
Oct 15
#india $IBN I've always seeked out opportunities where the consensus is convinced of something and things may change. My questioning nasdaq in Nov 2021 and recommending $Tqqq puts got me a lot of ire with folks saying C8888 stick to something u know about like energy and not tech
Needless to say many of my many shorts this year $arkk $tsla $aapl $snow $cvna $nvda etc have been very beneficial to a very strong year with over 1/2 my returns ytd coming from the short side ($btu making up the rest). My piece de resistance was recommending buying $aapl puts
Read 25 tweets
Oct 4
$KWEB $BLK. I had a good call during the spring buying Kweb calls. I dumped them a month or 2 later and have not been involved until this am. It’s pretty clear with the leadership council not wearing masks and from tweets ive sent out that Sing tourism agency was told to expect
Huge influx of chinese tourists that 0 covid may end post the CCP meetings. Well im already mega long oil (thru $panr and $BTU) but this chart is so juicy and sentiment is in toilet on china.
Against the long, im shorting $BLK. 3 reasons. 1. I think active is going to come back and passive will die- as @hkuppy has been saying repeatedly passive or closet passive (look at the HF performance i tweeted yesterday -18.4% (yeesh), and BLK trades at close to double the comps
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
$AAPL seems the bulls arguing or praying for an emergency cut are going to be sorely disappointed. Couple this with the last bastion of safety- $AAPL breaking down and you can have a vicious circle. Julian Brigden yesterday argued for the stock to hit $97.50. Given i had
Argued for 90$ when i was buying the puts when the stock was at 175$ that seems highly reasonable. Will be an interesting week. Bottom line a lot of FANG are nothing but bond proxies and with rates rising, and with no growth, people are quickly finding that these”cant lose
Growth stocks” that many had used leverage and margin to fund their lifestyles (SLBS) are a toxic combination in a bear market. I remember 00-02 vividly and the last bastions of a bear market to fall are the generals. Couple this with a almost comical AI day by $TSLA and next
Read 4 tweets
Sep 30
$XLK. $AAPL Everyone is convinced the bearish sentiment is so high that we will get a bounce despite many things breaking and talks that the UK pension systems almost went Kaput. However, the following chart from CS shows
That the cost of selling a call to buy an out of the money put remains at extremely cheap levels. If people really were so so so bearish they would be selling calls even to buy deep out of the money puts given they would be convinced we would crash. As you can see downside
Complacency remains high and something that my friend @PauloMacro has been also harping on. Looking at tech valns and you can see that mega cap tech has a lot more downside and responses to my tweet that if 1/4 people are cutting $NFLX due to cost of living increases what would
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(