WrathofKahneman Profile picture
Dec 2 13 tweets 6 min read
Secret #XRP Ledgers!!! 🔎
Are they real?

Let's be clear; there are no secret ledgers where real XRP is priced at $100k. It is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of how the #XRPL works.
A🧵/12
2. Just think of it - want XRP to be $50? $500? $5 million!? You could do it on your own private ledger! XRPL.ORG / Github even shows you how!
Then squeeze your super valuable XRP back onto the market, right?
xrpl.org/blog/2020/runn…
xrpl.org/run-rippled-as…
3. No.
Remember how the XRPL achieves consensus; there is a network of independent validators that agree on each tx recorded so the network progresses. And they already agree on the amount of XRP created and where it is.
wazirx.com/blog/blockchai…
4. So let's say you connect your secret ledger to the XRPL, what happens? The network of trusted validators don't trust you and wouldn't accept your record of your #XRP system.
You didn't create a secret ledger, you created a fork.
5. To connect to the XRPL, your network has to submit to the existing validators & their XRP history. They would not recognize your XRP as real XRP, let alone the price, as they have no validated record of it. You hold a penny at the checkout counter claiming it's a dollar bill.
6. But now...
Federators introduce a new possibility for sidechains. Instead of creating a forked network, federating nodes act like gatekeepers for the XRPL. They force you to comply w/ the main XRPL consensus to connect. So you can't make new XRP to move to the main ledger.
7. So yeah, #Ripple touts private ledgers. They offer a lot of new possibilities, with privacy and control, but sidechains don't affect how the XRPL validates TXs or the XRP supply. Remember, that is fixed.
ripple.com/insights/rippl…
8. In the meantime, the assets moving across the federators to the ledger are a matter of public record. We'd know if a sidechain moved a lot of XRP in either direction. Remember how excited people get when they see monthly escrow released? Whale watching?
9. Internally, do what you want, but only real XRP as determined and tracked by XRPL consensus is moving back & forth across that federating node. (And issued assets, I suppose, but those involve trust anyways :) )
10. Have people seen secret ledgers showing astronomical prices? Who knows? Maybe? It's the internet. Maybe someone saw real tests by real orgs, but they can't fundamentally affect the price or supply of XRP on the main XRPL. The $300k XRP would cease to be #XRP when connected.
11. But what about price glitches! Isn't that proof?

"IVAN YOU PRESSED PUBLIC! QUICK, TURN IT OFF!"

I mean, we'd have to take each individually here, but does anyone trust price feed data implicitly? CMC? Not only are there known reporting issues, also happens to other chains.
12. Hopefully big players are testing the ledger, privately, w/ plans to go live. But stress testing is different from price prediction. I hope they foresee a future w/ large sums, but they will have to start w/ the same 100b #XRP we all track, now at ~.$39.
13. But if the time comes, & they need more, I'll happily match their test prices...

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More from @WKahneman

Dec 1
Yesterday, @Ripple led a $72m funding round for digital asset market maker Keyrock. Active primarily in spot markets so far, it has been expanding into OTC markets recently.
investingcube.com/market-maker-k…
"Keyrock leverages its own technology to offer flexible and scalable liquidity solutions to marketplaces and asset issuers like #Ripple and over 85 other trading venues." They lost a small amount of assets to FTX. coindesk.com/business/2022/…
Also, SIX is partnered up w/ #Ripple investor SBI Holdings to create "the preeminent digital asset liquidity hub in Singapore."
And Middlegame Ventures has nothing to do with gaming.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 17
Get questions re: Partior given these articles. JPM spun off Partior, a "neutral" global payments platform. ETH based (no fees). It's competition for Ripple in one sector but - and this is significant - it is also further fragmentation, not consolidation.
ledgerinsights.com/partior-jp-mor…
What Partior has done, as you might infer from the article, are systems for large value tx's, like SWIFT. They look like correspondent schemas, laid out in smart contracts for speed & automation.
For the most part there hasn't the XRP liquidity for these & worse still (for banks) it requires buying XRP. Partior doesn't require buying a token. The AMM XRPL proposal could go a long ways to providing enough liquidity though for large ODL tx's which wouldn't require buy-in.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16
Don't miss the news that MFS Africa is now a #Ripple ODL partner amidst all the news of the day. This is a potentially huge partnership. Why so exciting? A humble 🧵beginning w/ the obvious & moving to the not-so-obvious in 7 tweets..
financialit.net/news/cryptocur…
1. First, mobile uptake is important. #Ripple notes worldwide use is expected to reach 70% of the global population, largely in markets in APAC & Africa. This is a perfect high volume, small payment application that could generate tremendous volumes.
ripple.com/insights/a-win…
2. Second, payment structures across Africa aren't well connected w/ poor liquidity. Many Tx's are cross-border, but even domestic payments can be a challenge. ODL can offer a $701 mobile market cheap fast, reliable payments.
ripple.com/ripple-press/r…
Read 10 tweets
Sep 17
A lil' #Ripple partner mystery:
1. Payment Rails (Montreal), an API-first approach, enabled developers "to seamlessly add international payments to their platform, website or apps, giving access to global markets."
But then, they disappeared.
paymentsjournal.com/payment-rails-…
2. In reality they just rebranded in 2021 as Trolley with "ambitions to drive payout-based growth..." and "progress in meeting the payout needs of a borderless, internet-based economy."

At the same time, they closed a $7m series A funding round.

finance.yahoo.com/news/payment-r…
3. Their P/R seems like a perfect place to use RippleNet:
"Trolley plans to leverage Pace Capital's investment to:
- Increase direct integrations w/ top ERP & accounting platforms
- Expand tax compliance beyond the US
- Add more local & instant payout options"
Read 6 tweets
Sep 17
OT:"The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Issue a Press Release."

This article goes. so. hard.
-Gartner hype-cycle is meaningless
-tech acceleration is just marketing
-tech narrative becomes mythic natural law

ed-tech but bears on crypto, metaverse
hackeducation.com/2016/11/02/fut…
I cannot recommend it enough! Someone rec'd it here a few months ago and I've since reread it every few weeks. She deftly pokes holes at the mythology of Silicon Valley progress presenting itself as natural and inevitable and not deliberate choice and financial interest.
Here is a review of her book, "Teaching Machines."
(it's very good, too, book & review).

comment.org/unlearning-mac…
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
There is a lot buzz about the #XRP valuation model this weekend. Why?

Short version: Blackrock is investing in Coinbase & the head of Blackrock's Digital Asset div. has been Robert Mitchnick, one of 2 authors of an $XRP model from 2017, so lots of buzz.

Long version? -a lil🧵
1. Blackrock announced a partnership with Coinbase for institutional advisors to gain BTC exposure. This is big money.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2. In 2019 Blackrock hired former Ripple Exec Robbie Mitchnick to lead its digital assets division.
ledgerinsights.com/blackrock-is-h…
Read 13 tweets

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