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Dec 4 5 tweets 4 min read
The Russian and Belarusian Ministers of Defense met in Minsk likely to further strengthen bilateral security ties between #Russia and #Belarus. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ Russian Minister of Defense Army General Sergei #Shoigu met with Belarusian Minister of Defense Major General Viktor Khrenin and signed amendments to the Agreement on the Joint Provision of Regional Security in the Military Sphere.
3/ Shoigu also met with Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko during which Lukashenko stated that Belarusian and Russian forces continue to train together on Belarusian territory so that the “Union State [can] repel any aggression.
4/ #Shoigu likely met with Khrenin and #Lukashenko in an attempt to place pressure on #Belarus to further support #Russia’s offensive campaign in #Ukraine.
5/ @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed that #Belarus is highly unlikely to enter the war in #Ukraine due to domestic factors that constrain #Lukashenko’s willingness to do so. isw.pub/UkrWar120322

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Dec 5
Senior US government officials are mistakenly identifying the optimal window of opportunity for #Ukraine to conduct more counteroffensives as spring rather than winter, despite Ukrainian officials’ statements to the contrary. isw.pub/UkrWar120422
2/ #Ukraine's ability to maintain the military initiative and continue the momentum of its current operational successes depends on Ukrainian forces continuing to conduct *successive* operations through the winter of 2022-2023.
3/ Weather conditions in winter 2023 likely will dictate a timeframe in which #Ukraine can conduct maneuver warfare and continue its string of operational successes with minimal pauses that would increase the risks of Ukraine losing the initiative.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Russian forces continued ground attacks around #Bakhmut on December 4 and in doing so are likely continuing to suffer high casualties. isw.pub/UkrWar120422 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Berestove, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka.
3/ Social media footage posted by Ukrainian troops shows heavy fighting south of #Bakhmut in #Opytne, and Russian milbloggers claimed that the capture of Opytne is crucial to further Russian advances toward Bakhmut.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 5
#Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces plan to continue offensive operations over the coming winter to capitalize on recent battlefield successes and prevent #Russian forces from regaining the battlefield initiative.

isw.pub/UkrWar120422 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group Serhii Cherevatyi stated on December 4 that frozen ground enables heavy wheeled and tracked vehicles to advance and that Ukrainian forces are preparing such vehicles for winter operations.
3/ Cherevatyi also stated that low-quality mobilized recruits and Wagner Group personnel recruited from Russian prisoners are unprepared for combat in the winter.
Read 17 tweets
Dec 4
Conditions in eastern #Ukraine are reportedly becoming more conducive for a higher pace of operations as winter sets in. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed on December 3 that the ground has frozen along the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will likely increase the pace of their counteroffensive operations in the area as a result.
3/ Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also stated on December 2 that weather is finally changing on the Kreminna-Svatove line and that he expects that Ukrainian forces will soon be able to improve their counter-offensive maneuver operations as mud in the area fully freezes.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 4
French President Emmanuel #Macron amplified Russian information operations about the West’s need to discuss “security guarantees” for #Russia in a televised interview on December 3. isw.pub/UkrWar120322
2/ Macron stated that the West should consider how to address Russian security guarantees if President Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine.
3/ “That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table," Macron said.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 3
#Russia still poses a threat to the Ukrainian energy grid and civilian population despite #Ukraine air defense forces’ high rates of shooting down Russian missiles and drones. isw.pub/UkrWar120222
2/ The small % of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with Ukrainian President Zelensky stating that recent strikes had left six million Ukrainians without power ahead of winter.
3/ Russia will likely continue to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure at least as long as enough Russian weapons can get through to achieve effects.
Read 6 tweets

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