Alexander Profile picture
Jan 2 18 tweets 5 min read
Here are the results of a recent poll. I asked people to imagine 100 dating-age peers and tell me if at least half were attractive enough to date.

Most people don't find most people attractive.

So - how is it that most people are in relationships? 🧵
This is a result I expected. Most people don't find most people attractive.

Women are also more selective than men.
This raises a question - how is it that so many people are in relationships and married when we don't find most people physically attractive enough for a relationship?

Let's look at how this works out with something like facial attractiveness.
This chart shows what happens when people rate faces and you look at the highest/lowest ratings for each face.

Almost every face has someone who finds it unattractive and someone who finds it attractive.

True more or less equally for men and women.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16634665/
Not all of them unfortunately:
But it's mostly good news.

We get lost in the fact that there is high (mean) agreement on what an attractive face is.

Yet at the same time - there is high individual variation.
The conventional wisdom that someone out there will find you attractive is true.

And not just because you are a Good Boi with a nice personality.

Someone will legitimately like your facial appearance.
This paper didn't have a plot of all ratings (most won't) but ratings are correlated. Imagine it clustered somewhere along the line.

So yes - there is still agreement on what faces are attractive.

But it isn't absolute agreement.
And this is important - because you don't date the mean.

You date the datapoint - the individual.

In a very practical way, you only need one person to find you attractive.
Most people finding you attractive vs most people not finding you attractive is, of course, a big deal.

It will make dating harder.

Especially as time goes on and more people exit the dating pool.

Maybe that one person who liked you is already married.
And the best thing you can do to mitigate this is to not waste time while you are young - when most people are still single.

The older you get, the smaller your dating pool - for men and women.

datepsychology.com/how-have-relat…
Let's look at a less charitable interpretation of the result above:

"Most people settle, are unhappy with their relationships, and don't find their partners attractive."

Likely wrong in most cases.
People in relationships report quite high satisfaction with them.

In the most recent GSS data, about 95% of people reported being happy with their marriage.
Results here indicate very high happiness in unmarried relationships as well:

Also in the research literature:

People rate their own partners as being more physically attractive than others do.

And also rate their partners as more attractive than they rate themselves.

Not a small effect - more than half a standard deviation.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18405868/
Note in the chart above - women rated their partners as physically stronger as well, in addition to in better health.

These are called "positive illusions" in psychology.
But the "positive illusion" of physical attractiveness can also be explained in part by individual variation in who we see as attractive.

The "illusion" is statistical and it represents partner disagreement with the mean agreement of facial raters.
Remember this chart. If you are average, someone will still find you ugly and someone will still find you beautiful.

And in practice, in the whole population, it won't just be one person.

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More from @datepsych

Jan 3
Although these calculators make it seem as if it is difficult to find an adequate partner, this is not the case.

Mate choice is not random.

The probability of finding a mate in one of the below categories is not the same as the total prevalence in the general population. 🧵 ImageImage
For example, at face value you would consider these standards (man in fig 1, woman in fig 2 above) very reasonable.

And yet, the combined probability of the two together would be lower than 1% - if it were a random assortment from the general population. Image
The probability of finding a mate with X characteristic depends on the pool you are selecting a mate from.

It depends on the people you come into contact with each day.

This is part of what is called assortative mating.

sciencedirect.com/topics/biochem… Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 1
Are the top 20% of men showered with attention and are "Chads" poaching average women on dating apps?

What the OKCupid data show. 🧵
This chart is often interpreted to show that men are "fair" with women on dating apps. However, these are just ratings. Image
Here are ratings against a distribution of actual messages - "revealed preferences" if you will.

These charts are kind of a mess. ImageImage
Read 25 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
Poll time:

Imagine you feed 100 people some nasty dog poo.

You ask them to rate the taste on a scale of 1-10.

Would you expect 68% of people to rate it between a 4-5 - approximating a normal distribution?

Or would the chart look more like the the second?
It is not a trick question btw.
I think we all learn about the central limit theorem and how we end up with normal distributions in samples.

But if a normal distribution exists or not depends on if the data is actually normally distributed.

Like in real life, in the population.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
Many interesting comments here - a lot of good faith criticism and questions. I'll try to answer a few of those that I didn't add to this thread:
The top one may be:

"What about male ratings of men?"

Men and women do rate faces differently. However, there is average cross-sex agreement on attractive faces.

And women and men both tend to rate female faces as more attractive.
Let me add two other questions/observations that can be addressed at the same time:

"Women use make-up and care more about their appearances."

And

"Maybe men on OKCupid are uglier."
Read 12 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
People with slow life history strategies have higher mate value and mate assortatively more strongly.

link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Matching life history strategy is also associated with higher marital satisfaction:

psycnet.apa.org/record/2012-24…
An idea of what slow/fast life strategies are from this paper:

frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Read 6 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
There is an implication in this very famous chart that I think many men miss - it is that women are simply more attractive than men. 🧵
I see this often interpreted as "women are wrong."

The assumption being that that the ratings must fall on a normal distribution around the midpoint.

And that women are wrong because they didn't rate men around a 3/5.

There is no cosmic law that this must be the case.
If you use a decile scale (or 1-5 in the case of OKCupid here) or a Likert scale, you shouldn't just assume or expect that the distribution will be normal.

Very often it will not be.

Because many things are not normally distributed.

Distribution of psychopathy, eg:
Read 35 tweets

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