So this case study, this #gold cap is $30m with due diligence underway by Sprott to finance 90% of the capex, assuming success we would expect a re-rate to around $40-50m cap, dilution to raise $15m over the next 9-18 months would be required for 10% capex and working capital.
67% voted for < $51m cap size, implying post dilution returns of > 9x assuming $2500 spot over the next 3 years.
Those who voted for $25m cap (post 90% financing completion) Vs today's cap of $30m (pre-financing due diligence completion) potential returns > 15x
Risks:
- failed financing due diligence
- the vein structures are narrow for this deposit making underground mining difficult, we assume this is factored into the DFS
Risk:Return -50% Vs 10-15x
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Realities with 75% of nano cap #gold explorers, or potential pre-production plays:
- lifestyle operations for the CEO/chairman
- burning matches, dilution can be 95% prior to achieving much
- timeframes of 1 year become 4 rather quickly
- require huge margin of safety for entry
What sort of margin of safety do we hear you ask?
- Cap < 5% NPV < 30% resource
- Cap < 25% of optimized annual cashflow
- IRR > 100% at $2500 spot
- Insider ownership > 20%
- Independent due diligence on Financing to verify DFS
- Cap/oz < $4
Even with all the above 40% will likely drop over.
Hence ensure one doesn't over pay and have a spread of 5 holdings in the theme.
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin.
#lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.
$SBER up 19x if depositary receipts were purchased <50c and converted plus incoming 200% dividend yield. A little outperformance over 12 months Vs peers group in Europe & US. Another successful #asymmetric theme in play.
Who would have thought the globally best investment theme over the last 12 months would be #Russianstocks (purchased in crashed DRs) that 83% of the world pop didn't sanction?
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Entry on these sorts of multiples with future growth applied has always provided 10-20x returns over 5 years on cycle bottom deployment for a theme.
To call the bottom of #commodities#uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing.
Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.
The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.
#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...
...therefore a truly real supply shortage is when Utilities are forced to buy over 1.5mlbs per month, with other buyers taking the total to over 2.5mlbs per month, then the spot price will actually trend higher. Until this happens (or a sustained risk on period later in 2024)...