Ian Ellis Profile picture
Oct 27 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
JUST IN💣

U.S. plans to develop & build a new nuclear bomb.

The "modern variant of the B61 nuclear gravity bomb" will provide the U.S. with additional flexibility & options "against certain harder & large-area military targets."

Late Friday release is telling... Image
One pager from DOD: Image
Source + excellent report with a lot more detail:
“The decision to add the B61-13 comes shortly after another new nuclear bomb – the B61-12 – began full-scale production last year and is currently entering the nuclear stockpile.” @nukestrat @mattkorda
@nukestrat @mattkorda “The administration stated that it would not increase the number of weapons in the arsenal and that any B61-13s would come at the expense of the long-planned B61-12.”
@nukestrat @mattkorda “Like the B61-7, the B61-13 will be designed for delivery by strategic bombers: the future B-21 and, until it is retired, possibly also the B-2. It is not intended for delivery by dual-capable fighters.”
"Today's announcement is reflective of a changing security environment & growing threats from potential adversaries," said Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb.

"The U.S. has a responsibility to continue to assess & field the capabilities we need to credibly deter &, if necessary, respond to strategic attacks, & assure our allies."
Final note: The fielding of the B61-13 is not in response to any specific current event; it reflects an ongoing assessment of a changing security environment.

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More from @ianellisjones

Oct 27
🚨Heightened Chinese PLA military activity around Taiwan:

- 35 aircraft detected, 23 crossing ADIZ—the most this month
- 15 warships tracked—3rd highest total ever
- Shandong carrier strike group in Western Pacific
- Civil-military ferry deviates from normal route, moving south Image
Taiwan reported that the CNS Shandong (17) aircraft carrier + strike group entered the Western Pacific on 26 Oct.

The USS Ronald Reagan CSG is also underway nearby. Both were recently operating in the South China Sea + WestPac.

Shandong last seen in port on Hainan 9 Oct.
People's Liberation Army (PLA)-associated ferry Bohai Pearl left regular routes in the Yellow Sea recently & headed south en route to Xiamen (west of Taiwan).

These movements have been a fairly consistent tell in the past, often preceding major military exercises in the region.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 26
Updates from DOD:

- 900 U.S. troops deploying to CENTCOM/Middle East—not going to Israel
- 16 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq & Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups since 17 Oct
- Unsuccessful attack today in Erbil, Iraq
- Providing 2 more Iron Dome systems
- 20+ minor injuries
Units from the continental U.S. that are deployed or deploying include THAAD, Patriot, & Avenger batteries, & associated air defense headquarters elements.
The ~900 troops deploying were already on prepare to deploy orders, & moving to the region to “support regional deterrence efforts & further bolster U.S. force protection capabilities.”
Read 5 tweets
Oct 24
A Dance of Deterrence

- U.S. naval fleet + forces massing near Israel
- IKE carrier strike group redirected to Middle East
- Uptick in attacks from Iranian-backed proxy groups
- Destroyer USS Carney intercepts missiles + drones fired from Yemen

New map, thread, + latest news:
Image
In U.S. @CENTCOM Area of Responsibility:

- Bataan amphibious ready group, with 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit—Special Ops Capable—embarked, was in the Gulf of Aden + moving toward Israel

- Destroyer USS Thomas Hudner transited the Suez Canal into the Red Sea

- IKECSG en route
@CENTCOM In @US_EUCOM AOR:

- FORD carrier strike group continues to operate in the eastern Mediterranean, ~southwest of Cyprus

- USS Mount Whitney, one of two amphibious command & control ships—with high-ranking brass onboard—moves to the eastern Med

- USS Mesa Verde (BATARG) underway
Read 16 tweets
Oct 19
NEW: 2023 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT

@DeptofDefense offers insights into the People’s Liberation Army’s:

- Strategy
- Military activities
- Economic policies
- Current capabilities
- Future modernization goals

Key takeaways + quick summary: Image
The PRC seeks to amass national power to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049, and to revise the international order in support of the PRC’s system of governance and national interests. Image
In 2022, the PRC adopted more dangerous, coercive, & provocative actions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Between the fall of 2021 and fall of 2023, the United States documented over 180 instances of PLA coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region. Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 17
🚨 U.S. DoD released declassified images + videos of coercive, reckless, + risky Chinese PLA operational behavior.

Over 180 incidents against U.S. aircraft have occurred since Fall 2021—more in the past two years than in the decade before.

Here are 15 cases with receipts ⬇️
The images & videos were captured during lawful U.S. air operations, during which PLA operators engaged in coercive + risky activities, including:

- Reckless maneuvers
- Close approaches at high speeds
- Releasing objects & projectiles like flares
+ Other dangerous behavior
For decades, the United States has flown, sailed, and operated in the region—safely, responsibly, & in accordance with international law.

Allies & partners welcome U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific because it advances a shared regional vision of peace and security. Image
Read 22 tweets
Oct 12
Many questions about the role U.S. aircraft carriers will play in the Middle East.

USN Admiral (Ret) James Winnefeld answers (& explains what to expect next):

- Strike Warfare
- Special Operations Support
- Missile Defense
- Other Missions

TL;DR 👇 Image
The twin missions of the U.S. government will be to support Israel in its struggle against Hamas and prevent this conflict from spreading into a regional conflagration. @NavalInstitute @USNIProceedings Image
While the former principally will involve the resupply of weapons to Israel, it could quickly evolve into direct support. 

The latter will require deterring Iran and its other surrogate, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, from taking advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with Hamas to attack it from the north.
Read 10 tweets

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