Thread by @TrentTelenko

Let's be clear, what happened to the Su-57 can and will happen to the F-22, the F-35, the Gripen or a Rafale.

The technological barriers to entry for a 1990's era Tomahawk class accuracy and range for OWA drone/propellor cruise missiles have fallen.

1/

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1799702007277556027

It was clear in 2015 that with 3D printing and Google map overhead image database for a digital scene matching automatic correlation (DSMAC), we would see cheap, printed component, off the shelf, mini-Tomahawk IV cruise missiles available to mid-sized drug gang class...

2/

...sized financial organizations inside of 10 years, AKA Ukrainian crowd funding of 2023-to-2024 sized.

Chinese microbolometer uncooled thermal imaging chips were a commodity in 2015 and were used by both sides of the 2014-2015 ATO in Donbas.

3/

The high end radio control crowd of 2015 was using a line of relatively cheap ( $1K to $10K) jet turbines.

I loved the comments there about small/cheap pulse jets.  The video of the scale model F-14 is even better.  But what chilled me was this review of a book that was linked there:
4/
See: rc-airplane-world.com/model-jet-engi…

"Kamps book explains clearly how, with a reasonably well equipped workshop, a model engineer can build an efficient working jet engine..."

Can you say 3D printed, cheap and expendable pulse jet engines?

Ukraine noticed.


5/

https://x.com/TreasChest/status/1653181779711340545

There were a lot of reasons that DARPA issued this announcement in 2015.

SEEKER COST TRANSFORMATION (SECTR)
STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY OFFICE
DARPA-BAA-15-41
May 4, 2015
6/

While CNN is talking up AI for clicks.

The real phase change is that Late Cold War tech like TERCOM & DSMAC is a commodity priced electronics technology for the Liutyi's weapon seeker and navigation system.

7/
mil.in.ua/en/news/cnn-li…

The Ukrainian article paraphrasing CNN put it this way:

"Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data. The flights are determined in advance with our allies, & the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,”

8/

And Ukraine dropped a broad hint that the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB might be assisting in the low level strike routing of Liutyi.

I'm wondering if there is a Su-57 silhouette stenciled somewhere at SMAC.😏

9/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1791504447178240217

These photos of the Liutyi's 50 kg warhead makes it look like the Ukrainians' wanted a uniform fragment size for a specific performance level.

About a half inch (12.7mm) of mild steel at 50 meters seems to have been the design point.**

**When you eyeball Ukrainian drones...

10/

...there are advantages of having WW2 documents like "EFFECTS OF IMPACT AND EXPLOSION," by the National Research Defense Committee (Senior leader group photo below) a internet search away.

11/

archive.org/details/effect…

The important thing about Liuty class strike weapons is you are looking at a ~$150,000 weapon doing the job of a ~$3.5 million Tomahawk Block IV.

That is a 23 to 1 cost effectiveness advantage doing this mission photographed below.

12/

Cheap drone based offensive counter air campaigns, affordable by 3rd rate powers, are now the biggest threat to 4th, 5th and soon 6th generation crewed fighter basing and logistics.

13/13 End

@threadreaderapp unroll please