1/ Russia faces "tectonic events" in the near future due to Ukraine's seizure of the initiative in the war, which presages an "impending disaster", according to a gloomy commentary by Russian journalist and warblogger Maxim Kalashnikov. ⬇️
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2064004016049373291
2/ Kalashnikov draws attention to the convergence of several unfavourable trends for Russia – economic, military and industrial – which he says are seriously threatening a Russian war effort that is faltering and weakened by chronic corruption, inertia, and backward-thinking.
3/ He writes:
"We are on the eve of a new upheaval. Anyone who studied dialectical and historical materialism ... knows that the number of changes always leads to a qualitative leap. Or a collapse.
War in early summer 2026 is the threshold of the latter. What do we have?"
"We are on the eve of a new upheaval. Anyone who studied dialectical and historical materialism ... knows that the number of changes always leads to a qualitative leap. Or a collapse.
War in early summer 2026 is the threshold of the latter. What do we have?"
4/ "1. Bogged down in positional warfare on the ground.
2. The enemy seizing the initiative in the "lower sky" and successfully disrupting logistics in the frontline zone, Crimea, and other new territories of the Russian Federation.
2. The enemy seizing the initiative in the "lower sky" and successfully disrupting logistics in the frontline zone, Crimea, and other new territories of the Russian Federation.
5/ "With the prospect of troop stability being undermined, with a fuel crisis in the rear of the troops and in our part of Novorossiya. With a clear threat of a food supply crisis for the cities.
6/ "3. Attacks on Russian oil refining facilities, with the threat of a growing fuel crisis in the old territory of the RSFSR [Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic].
7/ "4. Attacks by heavy Ukrainian drones from NATO member Baltic states, targeting oil export infrastructure. This is accompanied by the Russian government's obvious fear of counterattacks, which only makes the Baltic states more brazen.
8/ "5. The growing crisis in the Russian economy, the widening budget deficit, and the distinct prospect of a collapse of public finances. This pushes the Russian elite toward explosive, forced decisions.
9/ "That is, toward devaluing the ruble, forcing the conversion of household bank deposits into government bonds, or plugging the budget hole with a 10-trillion-ruble bond issue.
10/ "Ultimately, this means devaluing the ruble and melting bank deposits. This leads to the devaluation of enterprise working capital and a decline in domestic production.
11/ "This is precisely what allows us to conclude that the enemy has imposed its initiative on Russia, and we are on the verge of a major "explosion." And so far, there's no sign of the authorities taking action to prevent the impending disaster.
The situation is alarming.
The situation is alarming.
12/ "Voluntary contributions from the oligarchy in 2026 are unlikely to yield much. They will only provide 300 billion rubles, while the current deficit is already 8.4 trillion ...
The resources for waging war in the mercenary style have been completely exhausted.
The resources for waging war in the mercenary style have been completely exhausted.
13/ "That is, just one infantryman costs the economy 15-20 million rubles (including allowances from the Ministry of Defence and the region, the first year of maintenance, and debt write-offs).
14/ "In other words, one mercenary [i.e. contract] soldier costs the same as an armoured vehicle, a squadron of drones, a decent electronic warfare system, or an anti-aircraft rapid-fire rifle.
15/ "And since the infantry suffers enormous losses from drones, vast resources are not being spent on developing combat robotics, reviving the Air Force, or producing high-precision weapons. War is becoming archaic and mega-costly.
16/ "And the longer it goes, the more expensive it becomes. Economic collapse is approaching.
Apparently, the current model of warfare is the maximum a raw materials-based bureaucratic system can provide.
Apparently, the current model of warfare is the maximum a raw materials-based bureaucratic system can provide.
17/ "It's plagued by corruption, inertia, and a deep-seated hatred of highly developed industry, all things engineering and scientific. In other words, it's a war waged with extremely expensive manpower from the lower classes.
18/ "It doesn't achieve air superiority with the help of a developed air force (manned aircraft and UAVs in a single system).
19/ "It also doesn't focus on the enemy's air defences, nor does it destroy its central control centres and strategic control centres, bridges and railway junctions, fuel and energy complexes, and communications hubs. It doesn't even mine the approaches to its ports.
20/ "Such a control system would never use nuclear weapons against its main adversaries. It's incapable of even launching a conventional response against targets even in the Baltics (third-rate NATO members).
21/ "It can't recreate a modern air force and instead conducts air offensives.
All of this predetermines 'tectonic' events in the near future. So let's get to work, fellow patriots, preparing for the fight for the survival of the Russian Federation. We can't lose." /end
All of this predetermines 'tectonic' events in the near future. So let's get to work, fellow patriots, preparing for the fight for the survival of the Russian Federation. We can't lose." /end
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