Alexander Clarkson  Profile picture
Lecturer for German and European Studies at King's College London. Opinions my own. RT not always endorsement. Also to be found at @APHClarkson@mastodon.social
@littlegravitas@c.im 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 #FBPE Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture প্রদীপ্ত মৈত্র (Pradipto Moitra) Profile picture Birger Leth Profile picture Dario Quintavalle Profile picture 11 subscribed
Mar 22 6 tweets 1 min read
If the US is unable to provide aid to Ukraine and does not seem a reliable partner for other European states its concerns will be ignored by Ukraine and other European states Quincyite Restrainers and MAGA isolationists are ultimate cakeists in assuming the US can withdraw commitments from allies while still keeping influence the US developed through massive involvement in key global regions.

Instead DC will moan on the sidelines as others ignore it.
Feb 17 4 tweets 1 min read
Panels at the Munich Security Conference invariably spend a lot of time wringing hands over the so-called Global South while spending as little time as possible paying attention to the details of relentless conflicts and regional power rivalries in the Global South A bit of time at MSC focused on wars in Sudan, Abiy's moves, state cohesion in the Sahel or growing risks of state vs state war between DRC and Rwanda rather than vague strategic platitudes might show EU and US policymakers actually care about events in the "Global South"
Nov 14, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
A potential trap in focusing entirely on narratives of settler colonialism in assessing imperial power structures and migration that can go back centuries is how quickly they can get absorbed into Far Right demands for expulsion of minorities in Europe, India or Africa The assumption that narratives of settler colonialism will only target West Europeans or North Americans looks ropey if one considers how various nativist movements in Europe, Africa and India can also end up targeting the migration and political legacies of Muslim empires.
Nov 4, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
The problem for those in the West pitching ceasefire and talks with Putin over Ukraine has always been one of trust. His speech on 24 February 2022 indicated that he believes he is pursuing a divine historical mission in ways that mean his word in any compromise cannot be trusted At best a ceasefire puts Ukraine in a permanent no war/no peace situation rather than stable outcomes.

Even in those terms, there is specific territory Ukraine would still need to gain now for it to sustain such a long term India/Pakistan dynamic punctuated by surges in fighting
Sep 21, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
One of the ironies of Ukraine's accession into the EU is going to be that once in EUCO, EP and the Commission the interests of Ukrainian governments will on the general direction of EU integration align more with Paris than with Warsaw. It is Poland that in its suspicion of Berlin and Paris keeps pushing for a deeper US role in European security while Ukraine having dealt with Trump's lunacies and Biden's reluctance to provide key systems would be much happier to be part of a Gaullist EU with strategic autonomy
Aug 12, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
Just as Navalny is right to point to failures to reform Russian society in the 1990s, it is worth considering what happened during the Soviet Ukrainian Shelest era in the 1960s and then under Kravchuk and Kuchma in the late 1980s and early 1990s to make change in Ukraine possible Shelest believed in Ukraine as equal partner to Russia in a shared Soviet empire and got purged by Brezhnev in 1971 for believing Kyiv was at the same level of Moscow.

Kravchuk was a clever opportunist in the late 1980s and Kuchma ridiculously corrupt in the 1990s.
Jun 25, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
The idea that an authoritarian regime whose security services fail to anticipate an armed revolt and whose army fails to crush the advance of rebellious armed groups comes out stronger of any deals made to buy off rebel leaders doen't really stand up to any historical comparison The extent to which the myth of Putin as master strategist has become an intellectual crutch for so many observers immersed in static intellectual assumptions about the unchanging nature of Russian society or great power hierarchies is most evident whenever he screws up
May 26, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The problem with a fatalistic population in a military campaign is the submissiveness that means people yield to fate when being forced to be sent to the front means they also yield to fate and surrender when the enemy army puts them under pressure. The Nazi regime as well as the Stalinist Soviet system were both intensely focused not just on generating fear and submission but also on fuelling genuine ideological zeal so that enough people enthusiastically embraced sacrifice for a cause
May 23, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
I see Nick Timothy has still not quite grasped that migration waves are as much demand led as supply driven There is something a little sad at so many wasting so much time arguing over a post-Brexit migration system when demand from UK citizens for easier access to the EU means their efforts get steamrollered after all
May 19, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
Beginning to think classifying the FPÖ as a Far Right populist party is increasingly problematic if you look at Kickl's rhetoric now.

As a Far Right party, under Kickl's leadership the FPÖ is becoming much more ideologically movement driven than under Haider, Grasser or Strache Even before Haider the FPÖ had factions that fed on racist resentment and Far Right elements. Starting with campaigns against Slovenian minority rights, Haider made that faction dominant and stoked patriarchal, racist and anti-system resentment in a successful populist strategy
May 18, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
A lot of the fear and hatred towards the EU exuded by people on the UK Right educated in exclusive schools seems to come down to Etonians not being able to cope with a world in which they're told what to do by Estonians Imagine going to the most exclusive British education institutions that tell you that you are at the top of a social hierarchy only to find out a bunch of earnest consultants and EU officials who went to a Romanian or Portuguese high school have the power to determine your future
May 17, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
That FPV drones could have a huge battlefield impact if treated as guided munitions was pretty obvious by 2017 and is visibly taking shape now Also love the boyoviy komar nickname for FPV drones that is increasingly used.

War mosquito
May 16, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The National Conservative conference isn't designed to help the Conservative Party win an election, it's designed to help Far Right candidates win the Party leadership after an election defeat. To those organising the NatCon events it doesn't matter whether the speeches repel millions of centrist voters that Sunak needs to survive as Prime Minister as long as they capture the imagination of the 150 000 Tory Party members who choose his successor
Mar 11, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The geopolitical Putin apologism and social darwinian banter from tech libertarians like Musk and Sacks should have acted as a big red flag when it comes to basic understanding among the Silicon Valley tech and venture capital scene of how political and economic systems work As with Brexiters in the UK, MAGA in the US or Pegida in Germany, a lot of news media that consider themselves pillars of serious analysis need to now ask how much they helped stoke hype around a libertarian tech cult of venture capital whose delusions they will now deplore
Mar 10, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The "Global South" is a concept devoid of any analytically usable meaning and in fostering oversimplification and Western-centric perspectives actively distorts geopolitical debate There are a lot of different perspectives that need to be engaged with in the EU and US, each with their own specific regional and local perspectives. One thing they have in common is that they're becoming increasingly economically and militarily powerful
Mar 9, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
The German government did what was once declared impossible and ended Germany's dependence on Russian gas in 8 months.

Of course transport is a different challenge, but if France, Germany, Spain and Italy are capable of building high speed rail surely the UK is too? Maybe the Treasury and the rest of the UK government will only realise that an inability to do the basics of transport infrastructure is a bit of a problem for Britain after the East Europeans have finished their high speed rail systems
Mar 9, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Hudapar? Really?? You can guess what Hudapar will ask for in return for its support if Erdogan wins Image
Feb 21, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
This tendency among several analysts and commentators to blame the EU and US for Putin's rise and democracy's failure in Russia is profoundly disingenuous in how it deflects all agency away from Russia's elite and wider population when it comes to the fate of their own country Russia is a typical late stage European empire wandering into disastrous wars with colonies or former colonies that start to destabilise the imperial centre

Russia's elite is particularly delusional in starting a war with a former colony that built alliances with stronger powers
Feb 9, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Anyone who claims that state intervention in the economy to assist in the modernisation of industry and infrastructure only picks losers seems to have missed the first five tutorials of their course on the history of industrialisation After a certain point a kind of dogmatic small state interpretation of economic history stuck somewhere around 1996 conventional wisdom looks increasingly unserious.
Jan 19, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
I don't think Scholz or his team have entirely internalised how much easier it has become for Warsaw to get partners in the EU on side now that the issues generating the rule of law conflict with Brussels have been quietly disposed of by PiS Where things get really tricky for Germany's ability to shape European integration are scenarios where Paris, Madrid and Rome start to get fed up with Berlin too, and now find themselves able to work with Warsaw as PiS's rule of law mess is put to rest
Jan 18, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
We now go for a live response from the Economist's correspondent in Prague RFERL correspondent clarifies Czech electoral law