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MD. PhD. "Fascism, Nazism, communism, socialism are .. variations of the same monstrous theme" - Ayn Rand
southernbelle Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
28 Jun 20

A quick lesson in medical statistics for those of you who believe the current "second wave" scare story out of #Victoria.

It starts with the concepts of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value.

Even doctors struggle with this..
Each medical test that you have has a built-in level of accuracy (and therefore inaccuracy). Most tests will identify most people with a disease correctly and also without a disease correctly. But no tests are perfect.

The #Theranos story for example (but I digress)...
Sensitivity is the probability that the test will be positive in people with a disease.

The "pick up rate" if you will. Usually this is high. Expect 100% but we are seeing reports of 50-70% in #covid19

So, of 100 people with Covid, 30 could test negative.
Read 25 tweets
8 Jun 20

The @NEJM Boulware paper that came out just after #lancetgate was raising red flags everywhere.

I think the data is real, but the study was designed to fail and everything possible done to ensure it did.…
The first red flag on this paper is the conflict of interests of @boulware_dr

Declared and undeclared.

He declared chinese community association affiliations. That's bizarre, he doesn't seem to be Chinese

Why Chinese business associations in a medical paper?
Then the *undeclared* affiliations. Why weren't these disclosed David?

Surely having associations with Gilead (makers of remdesivir) and Revive - another pharma company - would be worth declaring, no?…
Read 30 tweets
31 May 20
A new thread on another #hydroxychloroquine study in a major medical journal from the same study group as posted in @TheLancet and for which the data has been shown to be impossible.

This time the @NEJM

Hold on to your hats
You need to have a bit of statistics background to understand this. It's all about the variance. When you have different groups they vary. The more numbers you have in each group, the less the variance (proportionally).

Different groups would never have the same variance
Except in this study!

Not only do all these age groups have the same variance in this chart, but what *should* happen is that very small groups would have big variance (confidence intervals on this chart).

Well, it appears there are a lot of hypertensive teens with #covid19 Image
Read 26 tweets
23 May 20
Here's why I think this #hrdoxychloroquine "study" data is fake…

A thread....
@99freemind @realDonaldTrump @PressSec
(1) the study says that they received data from 600 hospitals up to mid-April, and it was published end-May.

This is impossible. If you have ever collected clinical research data you will know how impossible it is.
You have to get doctors to enter information and they are completely unreliable, requiring to be chased all the time. If you're lucky some units have a research nurse who is much better, but the data reports are either on paper (needing mailing/faxing) or an electronic repository
Read 35 tweets
15 Aug 19
The @nypost lied about #Epstein's transfer to hospital.

The pictures from William Farrington were staged.

The question is why?

A thread…
Here's the first picture. It suggests that Epstein is being resuscitated and wheeled through the doors of the Presbyterian hospital. He was supposed to have been found dead in his cell.

But there are inconsistencies.

EXIF data shows the picture taken at 07:24am
The key is the "second" picture, also time stamped 7:24am.

Made to look like he is in the hospital and they have removed the resuscitation equipment (within a minute, with no doctors present and pronounced him dead.

There is one big problem.

He isn't in the hospital.
Read 7 tweets