(1/12) What's up with SpaceX & Starship?
SpaceX's Chief of Fraud and serial liar @Gwynne_Shotwell came out recently and blamed oxygen shortage for the lack of Falcon 9/Starlink launches. We should keep in mind that only weeks ago Musk announced SpaceX is facing bankruptcy.
(2/12) Starlink has recently reached 100k customers across multiple countries, so still short at least 2-3 million to reach a point of break even. Also, SpaceX's current launch cadence is way too slow, more satellites go out of service than new ones are being launched.
(3/12) As we know, that's why "Starship" is being built, not to colonise Mars but to create a profitable launch system since the Falcon 9 still is not. I must admit at this point, I did not expect what I see in Boca Chica Texas, where SpaceX is building a launch complex:
(1/7) Intel's @Mobileye who has abandoned #Tesla for their recklessness years ago has just released a 40min video of driving in New York with their camera only subsystem which is much more advanced than Tesla's "Full Self-Driving", if comparable at all.
(2/7) Other than Tesla, Mobileye is trying to develop actual autonomous vehicles and although being far ahead of Tesla esp. in computer vision they will implement a LiDAR system as a completely separate system on top for anything above Level 2.
(3/7) Personally this approach is very appealing to me because we're decades away of having general common sense AI. The fact that Mobileye is building what they call "world models" three times to watch out for potential dissonances is a great foundation to apply formal logic to.
(1/13) Why #Tesla can't handle curbs & why they can't surpass Level 2 automation: A brief explanation:
We've seen countless examples of Tesla's "Smart Summon" failing in the simplest environments. In the example below a Tesla drives over a curb but why can't Tesla see a curb?
(2/13) Tesla has 3 types of sensors: a low resolution camera array (8 cameras @ 1.2mp), ultra sonics and a forward facing radar (in the process of being removed). Radar is completely irrelevant here and Tesla's ultrasonics are also not configured for curb detection.
(3/13) For people interested in ultrasonic curb detection I'll link a paper below. So Tesla has to use their cameras to try to figure out where a curb is. It should be noted that their cameras are not really adjusted for this task, as they point too high. mdpi.com/1424-8220/19/6…
(2/9) First of all: No, Tesla has not the 5th most powerful supercomputer in the world, not even close. Though they have 1.8 exaFLOPS they only run at FP16. In laypeople's terms: very fast but not at all precise. top500.org/lists/top500/2…
(3/9) Nevertheless, it's a large supercomputer tailored for their needs. So what's the bad news? Simple: despite having enormous resources Tesla hasn't even scratched the borders of L3 automation. #FSD in its current version can't even reliably detect objects & measure distances.
(1/8) According to #Tesla conspiracy theorists, Tesla and #ElonMusk dominate the world of tomorrow. This is a compilation of a fraction of YouTube video thumbnails published by Tesla fans over the past year. The general theme is more than obvious: omnipotence.
(2/8) The fantasy of omnipotence is nothing new & is the most powerful tool to create a dedicated following. Tesla fans aren't fans of cars: they save the world with a genius leader who has unmatched powers & skills and who is (in their minds) already conquering other planets.
(3/8) Omnipotence is a compelling promise by Musk to his worshippers, follow him & you'll be part of his mission to change and lead the world.. the universe! Failing is not an option. This narrative reminds you of the playbook of all dictators around the world throughout history.
(1/9) John Gibbs (@DrKnowItAll16) from the University of Georgia (@universityofga) makes a complete fool out of himself in a video where he invents numbers which he then refers to as data that he then says is evidence to prove $TSLA #FSD will be better than humans by end of 2021.
(2/9) Gibbs is so incredibly dense & uneducated that it is hard to even understand his verbal excrements. Essentially what Gibbs claims is that FSD will improve exponentially just because he decided to use an exponential function in a spreadsheet with made up numbers.
(3/9) He takes the number of driven miles and claims this number equals the improvement rate of FSD. To "make these numbers work" he then introduces arbitrary constants. One should note Tesla's mileage growth is not really exponential in the first place so everything is wrong.
1/6 With #SpaceX in the news we look again at the profitability of their Falcon 9 rocket & what is going on with Starship. Without considering launch prices we can easily conclude that SpaceX currently doesn't make profits from these rockets, simply because of what Musk claimed.
2/6 We should keep in mind that Musk has nearly two decades worth of overstating and over-promising profitability and in general cannot be trusted with any statement. The competitor ULA has alleged that booster profitability would only be reached at ~10 reuses.
3/6 With this in mind we understand why SpaceX has to raise billions and billions for the supposedly cheapest spacecraft in history (Musk claims 1000x cheaper than anything else). The current Falcon 9 could in theory generate profit in the future but is many years away from that.