Increased hash rate => increased network security. Increasing hash rate "may" thus increase demand in some cases.
Increased hash rate => increased difficulty => tighter profit margins in the event of price not increasing in line (or other costs not decreasing in line) => greater percentage of a fixed supply sold into the market to cover costs => "may" thus increase supply in some cases,
Many people getting very bullish on crypto these days. For valid reasons. Will they remain bullish next time bitcoin dumps 5-10% and alts bleed? Will you? Will you buy the dip? For price to go up in a sustained fashion incremental demand needs to overcome natural sellers supply.
#1 Argentina banned credit cards from dealing with Uber in 2016 not 2018.
#2 Ban was because Uber refused to abide by the law.
#3 Uber's competitor, Cabify, abides by the law, and can accept cards.
#4 Uber does not allow users to pay with Bitcoin.
There are no bitcoin debit cards in Argentina anymore. In fact, afaik, there are no bitcoin debit cards anywhere in Latin America. In 2017, Xapo suspended the service on all existing Debit Cards for users who live outside of Europe.
Stop orders execute at market once a price has been reached. Executing at market means executing at whatever is the best available price. Market orders should be used when certainty of execution is a priority over price of execution.
2/ Best available price may not be stop price => a stop order may not fill at stop price. This is called slippage. Slippage can be large in fast moving iliquid markets. Slippage is the price to pay to guarantee certainty of execution. It does not represent exchanges cheating.
3/ Example. Price of X is at $0.49 and there are $10 million buy stops at $0.50. Order book is thin, with only $1 million sell limits between $0.50 and $0.51. In that case once $0.50 trades, price will likely go beyond $0.51 in miliseconds and most stops will incur slippage >2%.
$XRP +68% today. As I said yesterday, $XRP was the asset one should have expected to move the most in case of an upwards crypto move, and the worst asset to short. Those who shorted $XRP fought the market and tossed money into the wind.
Those who shorted recently I mean. Shorting $XRP is great.
#1 Pick strongest for longs, weakest for shorts
#2 Focus on riding the wave, jumping in, not fighting it. Fading should be a secondary strategy.
#3 To fade a Tsunami, particularly for iliquid assets, levels and divergences are mostly meaningless. Find another method.
$XRP reversal is magnificent. Great example of why (for traders) usually best to buy the strongest, not the weakest (playing catch up).
Pump was seemingly triggered by headlines on xRapid going live soon. Although the move only started the day after. cnbc.com/2018/09/17/rip…
Not saying FOMO and buy the top, no, but rather the following: if the market moves up, the asset that has been behaving the strongest and has less resistance above is more likely to push harder. e.g. should expect similar price action from $ETH once (if) it breaks 230 on news.
I am fascinated by the #cannabis industry. It offers massive growth potential and represents a standard against prehistoric regulations. However, prices of public companies make no sense. Latecomers will get butchered. Valuations are not justifiable.
Revenue numbers of these multi billion dollar cannabis companies make me think of the number of ethereum daily users.
I attempted to short $TLRY today. Close to the top, after $300. My first attempt to short cannabis. Trades would not go through due to unavailability of shares to borrow for short-selling. Tried various brokerage accounts and all. Price was at $170 a few minutes later.
Friends this week calling me out of nowhere to ask about how to invest in #cannabis stocks. The same happened with #crypto in Dec/17- Jan/18.
To be fair, calls last year started rolling in waves in early December ... $XRP was still trading in the cents back then.
In January $XRP was briefly worth more than JP Morgan chase $JPMC, the largest bank in the world. $TLRY is now 1/6 the size of Altria (Philip Morris). It can continue going up for a while with all the media attention and retail investors diving in FOMO.
On Bitmex, when bitcoin is raging higher, longs usually pay shorts to incentivize them to short. With stocks instead, a short-seller needs to pay (often significant) interest to borrow the stock to sell. Take cannabis stock $TLRY, short-selling it could cost 370% annualized.
This of course goes beyond Bitmex. Comes to show why a liquid derivatives market makes for a healthier market. $TLRY is up 460% since August, in full bubble mode, up today another 10%. Shorting it is difficult.
Correlation of crypto with other asset classes has usually been around zero because crypto has been dominated by retail investors. I expect correlations to become positive with time. Crypto is a speculative asset class that draws on excess liquidity, not a safe haven asset class.
Then once bitcoin is a mainstream investable asset among institutions I would expect differentiation between bitcoin and most altcoins, and bitcoin's correlation to risk-on asset to flip and become negative. This would be the bitcoin as digital gold stage.
Correlations matter. Once correlations drift away significantly from zero, crypto investors and traders will have to start paying attention to macro events e.g. monetary policy decisions, political turmoil, etc.
For speculators understanding what the market is doing and why is much more important than what one thinks market should be doing. The former helps towards jumping in with confidence, which translates into faster execution & increased size. The latter often gets one in trouble.
Exiting with confidence is equally important (and often more difficult). Went long because of bullish Bakkt news yet market dropped soon after the news? You were wrong, it happens, get out.
Think ETH should have gone up because its not a security? Think XRP represents the future of finance? The market disagreed. Best not to go against the market unless one has a THICK wallet, superior analysis and is capable of waiting a LONG time, or has privileged information.
Ray Dalio talks #economics. Must watch. Here he covers emerging markets economic crises as well as how the next big crisis will shape up.
Ray Dalio's investing approach is centered around processing data into actionable conclusions. His goal has been to understand how the economic machine works. History repeats itself, he claims. His hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, embraces econometrics.
In contrast, the Austrian School of Economics generally rejects econometrics and dismisses empirical evidence. Instead of trying to understand the economic machine, they fight it. Listening to an Austrian economist is listening to never ending bashing of fiat currencies.
Some traders believe news are unimportant, and news/narratives are always spun into prices. That's false. News are only sometimes spun into prices, and can be used effectively for speculative activities. It should be obvious, yet it's not. #trading#investing
This may sound extremely obvious to many, yet I've had many discussions where for example price of oil drops hard on a Saudi statement yet a fellow trader would argue news was irrelevant and price actually dropped because traders sold some 61.8% fibonacci retracement.
Prices are not magical self-contained entities following their own rules.
If in doubt look at the following on Trading View:
$GBPUSD on Jun/23/2016 => Brexit
$ES on Nov/7/2017 => US Election Night
$CL on Nov/27/2014 => OPEC
$BTC on Mar/10/2017 => SEC Bitcoin ETF
On $ETH, it may pop given oversold levels and record margin shorts (Bitfinex) yet even if it does I expect it to remain weaker than competing tokens. Fundamentals & technicals aside, the Bitmex swap is a big deal. It allows those looking for an alts downside hedge to short $ETH.
Say a portfolio manager is concerned about the downside of his alts portfolio. He is expecting a continued crash. But doesn't want to close the longs as expects a strong bounce eventually, and going in and out of iliquid positions is very expensive. So he hedges.
Alternatively, this PM could also want to hedge exposure for tokens he is yet to receive, or are under a lock-up period.
For many, best way to hedge is on Bitmex, as the high leverage allows to put a hedge on while minimizing counterparty risk.
One could make a full book documenting not very rational views on crypto. It'd have 4 categories:
- general FUD callers
- ripple fanboys
- bitcoin "austrian" maximalists (those constantly complaining about the USD)
- market manipulation callers
As far as price is concerned, bitcoin supply is NOT limited, but rather infinite, as miners will always collect fees in $BTC and sell into the market.
Supply stemming from mining fees is comparable to recycled gold supply, which currently represents 26% of worldwide gold supply.
This is basic. I'm surprised at the great number of comments expressing disagreement. Miners will always collect fees in $BTC and sell into the market. Corollary is price could stay depressed even with mass adoption.
And this has nothing to do with dilution. Monetary supply is fixed.