My lukewarm #EUCO take. Cancelling/not having the November summit makes it seem very unlikely that, as some had thought, last weekend was all a piece of theatre to make it look like May had put up a hard fight before she caves. 1/
EU wants a deal, but the distance between UK&EU on IE/NI border is still apparently great, and EU27 cannot confidently predict that it will be resolved, along with some sort of Political Declaration, by a November summit. 2/
Add to that May's doubling down on the very issues that present the biggest obstacle - defining checks on goods as the marker for constitutional integrity, insisting on a time limit, backstop to backstop etc - in the HoC on Monday. 3/
I used to work on Moldova. I was seconded from the UKGov to the Commission to help design aid programmes to reduce poverty, help Moldova align more closely with EU rules/standards & develop a closer relationship with the EU.
That was the UK's pre-Brexit policy towards Moldova 1/
Glad to see that this is being done. Important as UK diplomats are unlikely to be doing the ground work to discuss, explain and prepare EU27 for the the possibility of a ref and a request for a n A50 extension. theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
When Jimi Hendrix came to London in 1966, Chas Chandler had to carry his guitar through customs as he had no work permit. You wouldn’t get away with that now, so UK musos going to EU, and EU to UK will have extra cost, hassle and red tape that will make it unviable for many.
I’m off to write to my bank to tell them that, while I fully accept liability for my credit card bill, my willingness to pay it will be dependent on their willingness to agree to a zero interest mortgage, a holiday in the Seychelles, and a Teasmaid.
The responses to this from @FabianZuleeg are very much worth reading and reflecting on (as Fabian’s points always are). Senior Remainers need to devote energy to discussing and convincing their EU27 capitals colleagues and contacts on an extension.
In more ordinary times (e.g. a GE) UK diplos would be quietly briefing their counterparts on possible outcomes and consequences. I very much doubt this is being done now.
If Fabian’s analysis is right, an extension that would be needed for a #FinalSay ref is very far from guaranteed. Other senior current and ex-politicians from Remain need to work with their EU27 contacts now to explain and convince.
The Divorce Bill is composed of liabilities UKGov has accepted it is liable for. It is estimated at £40bn, and will be paid over several years. The UK's GDP is around £2 trillion. The divorce bill is 2% of GDP spread out over several, and possibly many years.
As it has accepted the liabilities, it can't be assumed that it would be withheld, or withheld in full in the case of an actual No Deal, but you could have always included it as an assumption that it wouldn't, and few would have complained.
However, as your paper is actually about a negotiated exit followed by no agreement on the future relationship, and that a WA is the only route to a negotiated exit, and that a WA will include a commitment to pay the divorce bill, maybe you were right not to include it.
The main issue with @OpenEurope's new "No Deal" study is that it is not a study of the effects of No Deal, as this par shows. No deal means a disorderly Brexit, with vast disruption to trade, supply-lines, distribution networks and lives.
This is a report on no trade agreement.
And the effects of this in an actual no deal scenario are not just "one-time costs". Decisions made now, for example to move production or re-organise cross-border dependent businesses, will have deep and lasting effects for years to come.
I'll leave economists to look at the modelling itself, but headlines that this is a report on the cost of No Deal are wilfully incorrect. It isn't.
UKGov are apparently looking into how to use Banksy's remote controlled shredding technology to instantly shred the Withdrawal Agreement after agreeing it with EU27, so as to stop the DUP, ERG or anyone in Parliament seeing what it says.
Some have pointed out that there are flaws in this plan, but Raab thinks he can get round them by nicking Michel's copy while he's distracted and feeding that in as well.
When asked whether he was worried about the Commission having an electronic version, the Secretary of State assumed a glazed expression and stared into the middle distance for some time, issuing only a succession of muted "ahs" under his breath.
Why did UKGov agreed to a backstop last December, but have been trying to get out of it ever since?
-They didn't really want it?
-The didn't know what they were agreeing to?
-They didn't understand the consequences of it?
-They did want it then, but have changed their mind?
The astute among you will see where I'm going with this.
This shows the impossibility of the idea that “everyone knew what they were voting for.” Even @sikorskiradek, respected, EU-engaged Polish ex-Foreign Minister did not anticipate the full consequences of Brexit for the UK. Almost nobody did.
It’s not a criticism of voters to say that few knew the extent of the consequences of what they were voting for. Lifelong EU experts didn’t, Prime Ministers didn’t, journalists didn’t, companies didn’t. I certainly didn’t.
Yes, a lot was predictable, and predictable, but even those who accurately predicted some consequences can hardly claim to have known all of the.
We at @CakeWatchCast don't and won't crowd-fund for what we do. We're lucky, and can do it without it. If you like it though, and have ever thought you would like to donate, here are two important causes led by our friends (and guests) that you might consider supporting: 1/
#FinalSayForAll is run by @nickynoo007 and a team of brilliant volunteers that campaigns to stop Brexit, and for the rights of the 5 million+ in the UK and EU27 that did not have a say in the 2016 Ref. They coined #BrexitIsPersonal. 3/
So it’s no good UKGov pleading that they’ll never get things through at home, as if they are the only ones in this situation. Maybe EU27 leaders would have been willing to take small political risks at home if trust and goodwill had been established.
But, in the absence of that, UKGov is asking other EU27 leaders to take the political risk of upsetting their own electorates to accommodate the positions UKGov freely chose to take in a process EU27 never wanted or asked for.
This is the bit where trust and goodwill accumulated is cashed in. EU27 need to trust UK that, whatever the packaging and the impression they give at home, they’ll abide by the agreement. 2/
As last time this happened, UKGov ministers immediately said they could renege on the agreement, and as the current DExEU SOS threatens to withhold the financial settlement that’s already been agreed fortnightly, I’d be wary of that if I were them. 3/
A quick thread on the two points here: 1) a referendum on the Withdrawal Agreement & Political Declaration damages democracy, and 2) it would encourage a descent into populism. Both reasonable concerns. Both are, I think, wrong though, and for closely linked reasons. 1/
On 1) as @davidallengreen (who is against a ref on the deal for other reasons, some of which I disagree with) has pointed out many times, and pointed out again yesterday, a referendum can be democratic or irreversible, but not both. 2/ jackofkent.com/2018/10/why-re…
And it would be a referendum. If the 52% are still the 52%, the UK would still leave the EU. If they are not the 52% anymore, but 48%, or 45%, or 35%, then the UK would otherwise be leaving the EU at a point at which the majority were against it doing so. 3/
Are people still writing to their MPs on Brexit and the need for a #FinalSay/#Peoplesvote? If not, we should be. MPs get mail/emails on an endless variety of issues, and if their postbag is not dominated by opposition to Brexit they won't feel the pressure to act. 1/
I know some people are, and I know people have and have got no reply so it seems pointless to do it again, but it really isn't. It needs to be sustained and widespread to get through, but MPs genuinely take notice of this. 2/
Also, when MPs see opinion polls, they always think their constituency is different and an exception if what they see in their postbag/inbox and on the doorstep doesn't chime with the polls. 3/
Leads one to suspect that the DUP have been on the line to Number 10 again on the backstop 2/
And, if this report is correct, it looks like May is resisting the reported EU27 proposal of a Political Declaration with a blah-blah commitment to a close relationship, but only the options should UKGov red lines move in the future detailed. 3/
Now imagine a population where few people care enough to speak up. That would rather not stick their head above the parapet. That is just glad it’s not them getting the abuse, and will stay silent as long as that’s the case.
Now go on to think about a National broadcast media regulated by statute, that gives a platform constantly to those that deliberately spread this message.
Could have attempted to have the same thing but with a continuing role in decision making by trying to get a Leave date of 31/12/2020 in the WA of course, but, no, UKGov had to fixate on the earliest Leave date possible to show their own crackpots they meant business.
Sorry, should have read “to show that they mean f@ck business.”
On the other hand, it could lay bare the fundamental disagreements, and those who genuinely still think the EU27 are bluffing on key issues are surely disproportionately located in the crackpot ERG faction.
How reassured would Parliament be by May telling them that the disagreements are not fundamental and she believes they can be agreed?
Wait for friction at the border. It’ll be catastrophic for Florists. 70% of flowers in the UK come from the Netherlands, and are delivered next morning to maximise shelf and vase life. Every hour of delay is an hour off that. 1/
The overwhelming majority of florists are small, local businesses employing only 1 or 2 people. There are no cost-cuts they can make, and the proposition of selling a non-necessity that lasts less time for a higher price will make them hard to sustain. 2/
In addition to the increase in costs from GBP’s devaluation, Florent, the trade association, predict another 14% increase in costs from leaving the SM/CU. Here’s more information from @AlynSmith. 3/ thenational.scot/news/16135092.…