Patrick Ruffini Profile picture
Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, author of PARTY OF THE PEOPLE, coming November 7 from Simon & Schuster.
Michael Barger Profile picture Kabir Brar Profile picture 2 subscribed
Jan 23 6 tweets 1 min read
We're already starting with the takes about a high percentage of Republican primary voters signaling they won't support Trump in the general.

These numbers don't show what you think they show.

They are pre-Trump establishment relics, not new defections. 🧵 Haley is down to 20% while Trump has over 70%. It is what it is.

This is pretty undistilled hardcore Trump opponents and skeptics. Any defection in the general will come from this 20% but ultimately amounts to single digit percentages of Republicans.
Nov 14, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
🚨 New Party Reg Data for Newly Registered Voters

The Hispanic realignment continued across party registration states, with the GOP reaching new highs in the first quarter of 2023 most places.

Approaching 60% of new registrants in FL, near 50% in AZ.Image The Realignment is slowly starting to reach Black voters.

There's been a surge in the GOP share among new registrants starting after 2020 in FL & NC, two states required to keep race on file.

In FL it's surged from 5% to 14%. In NC, 4% to 8%.

#PartyofthePeople Image
Mar 8, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
This of course totally ignores decades of education polarization and the 2016 and 2020 shifts. Certainly, "working class" voters as a group don't all vote the same, because of splits between whites and nonwhites, but they're all moving the same direction--towards Republicans. On the idea that not having a college degree isn't a good way to frame this debate - education is the thing that drives everything today.

In 1996, there was a 47 point gap in how the richest and poorest groups voted for president and almost no education gap among whites...
Mar 8, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
Voters age 18 to 29 voted 66-32 for Obama in 2008, a margin of 34 (!) points.

Voters age 30 to 44, overlapping almost exactly with that 2008 cohort, supported Democrats by 4 points in the midterms.

That’s a shift of 30 points right. If you look at 2020, the same holds: Biden +6 or +12 among 30-44s. Catalist has +18. +12 seems like a sensible middle ground estimate. That’s still a crazy shift right from the 2008/10 baseline.
Mar 7, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read
A Twitter Polling "Memo" on our latest conjoint analysis: What is "candidate quality"? What does it take to convince primary voters that someone isn't a quality candidate and shouldn't get nominated?

A 🧵... First, what's a conjoint? It's where a respondent chooses between two fantasy candidates with randomly-generated lists of attributes. We then look at how many times an attribute was present in the winning choice to find out what voters *really* prefer.
Mar 3, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read
🚨 NEW today is the @EchelonInsights #SplitTicketAtlas updated for 2022: Almost 100 maps showing unique voter coalitions by state, and answering who performed better where: Trump, or Republican gubernatorial and Senate candidates in 2022.

Download here: echeloninsights.com/split-ticket-a… Image Governors' races are new to the most recent version of the #SplitTicketAtlas. A particularly telling slide: @BrianKempGA improved over Donald Trump virtually everywhere in GA, but not in places like Henry County, which have seen rapid demographic change in the last 2 years. Image
Feb 16, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨 NEW POLL: Voters say that most major financial goals are out of reach for the typical American family. This includes a plurality who say owning a good home in a good neighborhood with good schools. Considered most out of reach is raising a child on one parent's income. The sharpest divides by income are in the ability to afford a family vacation or save for retirement.
Feb 10, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
The reports of teen mental health problems starting around 2010 when they all got smartphones I believe can be traced to the same phenomenon. Basically everyone started going nuts because of the Internet around 2011-12
Feb 9, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
Joe Biden on Social Security in 2024 is just like Bill Clinton on Medicare in 1996 except without the willingness to do anything to break with the college educated white liberals driving the party left on culture war issues. Remember what Bill Clinton did to make sure he wasn’t seen as just another liberal Democrat:

- Triangulation
- Signing DOMA
- Sister Souljah moment
- Bringing on Dick Morris
- School uniforms, V-chips, death penalty for drug kingpins, etc.

Biden is doing nothing like this.