Steve Kornacki Profile picture
National Political Correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC. My podcast, The Revolution, is available...wherever you get your podcasts. Instagram: steve01450
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Jan 23 10 tweets 4 min read
Happy NH primary day!

Here's a look back at primary nights from past NH campaigns, starting with 1980, when Ronald Reagan crushed Iowa winner George H.W. Bush and President Jimmy Carter defeated challengers Ted Kennedy & Jerry Brown: 1984: One of the biggest primary night surprises in NH history, as Gary Hart, a polling also-ran just weeks before, not only beats but wallops the front-runner, former VP Walter Mondale:
Jan 14 4 tweets 1 min read
Final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP Caucus poll:
 
Trump 48%
Haley 20%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 8% Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
Dec 11, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
New NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa GOP caucus poll:

Trump 51% (+8 since October)
DeSantis 19% (+3)
Haley 16% (—)
Ramaswamy 5% (+1)
Christie 4% (—) One of Trump's key areas of strength: Those who say they will attend a caucus for the first time. This group tends to me much younger than the broader GOP electorate and in our poll breaks:

Trump 63%
DeSantis 12%
Haley 11%
Ramaswamy 5%
Christie 2%
Nov 19, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
New NBC News national poll (11/10-14)

General Election:
Trump 46%
Biden 44%

Biden Job Performance
Approve 40% (⬇️1% from Sept.)
Disapprove 57% (⬆️ 1%)

Biden Handling of Foreign Policy
Approve 33% (⬇️ 8% from Sept.)
Disapprove 62%(⬆️ 9%) ‘24 GOP nomination

Trump 58%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 13%
Ramaswamy 3%
Christie 3%
Hutchinson 1%
Burgum 1%
Nov 16, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The good news for Haley in the new CNN NH poll: She's up to 20%, in 2nd, and with Christie sitting at 14% there's at least potential for consolidation that could move her into contention.

The bad news: The overall dynamics are reminiscent of W/McCain '00

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2416… Meaning: she (+ Christie) is doing much better w/ independent/non-GOP voters (who play an unusually big role in NH) than with R's:

Self-ID'd R voters:
Trump 55%
Haley 18%
DeSantis 12%
Christie 6%

Independents/Dems
Christie 37%
Haley 28%
Ramaswamy 18%
Trump 7%
DeSantis 5%
Nov 8, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Lost in the shuffle nationally last night: Republican Ed Durr, the truck driver who made headlines in '21 unseating NJ's state Senate President despite spending a just a couple hundred bucks, was defeated for re-election - part of a big night for NJ Dems:
newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/bu… In '21 - the first off-year election of Biden's presidency -- NJ R's gained 6 Assembly seats, 1 in the Senate & nearly upset Gov. Phil Murphy. Last night, they lost 5 Assembly seats and made no gains in the Senate.
Sep 29, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
November 27, 1978: San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Dianne Feinstein announces that Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk have been shot to death and that the suspect is Supervisor Dan White.

A week later, the Board would elect Feinstein the new mayor. Feinstein was seen as a relatively moderate mayor of a very liberal city. In 1984, under pressure to choose a female or nonwhite VP, Walter Mondale considered Feinstein.

She was asked about it on Meet the Press two weeks before Mondale chose Rep. Geraldine Ferraro instead:
Aug 21, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
**New NBC News/Des Moines Register IA GOP Caucus poll**

Trump 42%
DeSantis 19%
Scott 9%
Haley 6%
Pence 6%
Christie 5%
Ramaswamy 4%
Burgum 2%
Hurd 1% Here's how Trump's 23-point lead compares to other leaders in the Des Moines Register poll at this same point: Image
Jun 25, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
New NBC New poll - '24 GOP WH

Trump 51%
DeSantis 22%
Pence 7%
Christie 5%
Haley 4%
Ramaswamy 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 2%

---
General Election Match-ups

Biden 49%
Trump 45%

Biden 47%
DeSantis 47% Among Republicans: Positive/Negative view of....

Trump 65 / 23%
DeSantis 60 / 17%
Scott 42 / 6%
Haley 41 / 13%
Pence 33 / 37%
Christie 15 / 42%
May 31, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
Chris Christie, set to enter the race next Tuesday, probably faces the steepest hill of any of the '24 GOP candidates.

In this week's Monmouth national poll, nearly half - 47% - of GOP voters viewed him unfavorably, and only 21% favorably - by *far* the worst of anyone tested: Image One theory of Christie's candidacy is that it's not so much about winning as trying to settle a score with Trump and win back respect from those who remember his early Trump endorsement and staunch defense of Trump through most of his presidency.
May 30, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
Monmouth national GOP WH poll [open-ended -- respondents weren't read list of candidates]:

Trump 43%
DeSantis 19%
Pence 3%
Scott 3%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Paul 1%
Ramaswamy 1%

* * *
December '22

DeSantis 39%
Trump 26%
Pence 2%
Cruz 1%
Haley 1%
Scott <1%

monmouth.edu/polling-instit… Favorable/Unfavorable among Republicans:

Trump: 77%/17%
DeSantis: 73%/12%
Haley: 47%/16%
Pence: 46%/35%
Scott: 44%/8%
Youngkin: 31%/8%
Ramaswamy: 22%/6%
Christie: 21%/47%
Hutchinson: 17%/14%
Sununu: 15%/15%
Apr 27, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Our new NBC poll on cultural/social attitudes gets at some of the nuances in how people think about these topics and how difficult it is to nail down exactly where public opinion is on some hot button issues. For example: Affirmative action... In our poll, we offered to choices:
A) Affirmative action still needed/should continue as long as there aren't rigid quotas: 53%
B) Affirmative action has gone too far and discriminates against whites and Asian Americans: 42%

This includes 53% of independents choosing A. But...
Apr 23, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
New NBC News poll (4/14-18):

2024 GOP WH
Trump 46%
DeSantis 31%
Pence 6%
Haley 3%
Scott 3%
Hutchinson 3%
Ramaswamy 2% Joe Biden - Job Performance
Approve 41%
Disapprove 54%

January:
Approve 45%
Disapprove 50%
Apr 5, 2023 15 tweets 2 min read
Polls are closed in Wisconsin and now the waiting begins. FWIW, last November we got our very first vote report at 9:16 EST and 10% was released by 9:30. And there's the first report - tiny batch of just under 2k from Waukesha, with Kelly winning them 52-48%.
Apr 4, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
Overall, Wisconsin as competitive and closely divided politically as it was a generation ago. In 2000, Al Gore carried it over George W. Bush by 0.2%. In 2020, Joe Biden won it over Donald Trump by 0.6%. But the composition of each party's coalition is changing.... One shift involves the Dems' 2 biggest vote sources: Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) Counties. They've both long been Dem strongholds, but Dane has gotten more deeply blue, which - combined with higher and higher turnout - has made it increasingly central to any Dem victory formula:
Nov 10, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
House state of play: GOP has won 210 seats; Dems 192.

There are 33 districts NBC News hasn't called. Dems currently lead tally in 22 of them; GOP in 11. (Some of these leads seem likely to vanish when all ballots are counted.)

Our model has GOP landing at 222, +/- 7 seats. Image * for ME-2 and AK-AL indicates that each is a ranked choice vote election

** for CO-8 is because GOP nominee Barbara Kirkmeyer conceded last night but NBC News has still not officially called the race
Jun 22, 2022 6 tweets 1 min read
New UNH survey of "like NH GOP primary voters" for 2024 (n=318):

DeSantis 39%
Trump 37%
Pence 9%
Haley 6%
Pompeo 1%
Noem 1%
Cruz 1%

Last October:
Trump 43%
DeSantis 18%
Haley 6%
Pence 4%
Cruz 2%
Noem 1% *likely
May 23, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
PA update: With a few hundred more mail ballots counted today, Oz's lead over McCormick in the GOp Senate primary is now 977 votes (0.1%). What we think is left... * Per the PA Dept of State, up to 5,400 mail-in ballots, but "it is likely that the estimates include rejected ballots that have not yet been recorded"
* Appx. 200 military/overseas ballots to be counted Wed.
* Appx. 800 provisionals, which so far have split 154-154 Oz/McCormick
May 19, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read
PA update: Oz leads McCormick by 1,241 votes (0.1%). It is inevitable that this will land in mandatory recount territory - a process that won't begin until next week and could stretch into June. But it's not clear who will be leading and by how much when the recount begins... What we think is left to be counted:
- 31 precincts in Allegheny County due to technical issues. This should amount to 1,500-2,000 total GOP votes a& hey aren't likely to be counted until next week. This is McCormick's base & he's been beating Oz 39-33 in Election Day votes here.
May 18, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Some more clarity: PA has updated the number of uncounted mail ballots to account for what counties received yesterday. There are now appx. 32,000 statewide. McCormick has been leading the mail vote by 9 points and if he won these at the same rate, he'd net ~3,000 votes, but... 1) We don't know if the late-arriving mail ballots (Montgomery got 1,051 yesterday) will be more Oz-friendly
2) The biggest stash of uncounted GOP mail ballots is 5,172 in Lancaster County, one of the very few counties where Oz is already running ahead of McCormick w/ mail
May 18, 2022 8 tweets 2 min read
Update on PA: Oz now leads McCormick by 2,564 votes (0.2%). It appears the biggest source of remaining *election day* vote is in Allegheny County -- around 6-7,000 votes. This is McCormick's home county and he is currently winning the same-day vote there 39-33% over Oz... ...there also appear to be 10 precincts in Delaware County yet to report election day vote. So far McCormick is leading the E-Day vote in Delaware 34-33%.