Received a massive amount of mails and twitter DMs from traders wanting to know about OI analysis. This method of analysis I use is kinda self taught and developed. I am hugely dependent on self designed analytical tools through which I analyse the whole NSE derivatives
My tools are mainly made on a charting software and advanced excel/python. Thru these tools I analyse the whole of NSE derivatives space, futures as well as options, the whole options chain in each instrument. Manually this is crazy/impossible, but my tools do it in seconds :)
At the end, specific stocks/options are identified and precise trades generated in that particular instrument. However, even without going into such complexity, a basic analysis can be learnt by anybody and used in their analysis . Here are two links which I just uploaded for you
Adani Ent. Whatever price you bought after I went into aggressive buy mode from 140 levels, you are making money even in this market !
The power of #OI_analysis
Short trapping on in full force, Adani Ent fut now should not break 165 if it has to blast on the upside, target 175
This is shaping upto be one hell of a fight, never seen anything like this before. No shorts sqing off, rather they are shorting more and averaging their shorts and are getting trapped. Once short covering starts, this can be the mother of all blasts on the upside
Yesterday morning got up at 5am , and finished off the presentation for @quantsappsocial options symposium in the next 3 hours . Though I was using the system for some time , it's always a challenge to make that into a presentation .
Options trading has become the fight for complexity , with each trader beating another with more and more complex strategies and more and more weirder implementation of Greeks .
For retail traders coming into the markets for the first time , this seems a mathematical nightmare . Add to this the continuous haranguing of options buyers as gamblers and idiots .
Picture abhi baki hai in Adani Ent fut !! If it starts to trade above 160 now, 175 can come very fast. Above 175, sky is the limit and there can be a rerun of the July move. Longs not booking profits yet, shorts till trapped at around 144 as of today. (1/2)
Stops on futures don't work on Adani, stops get kicked out and then the stock moves.Way to trade this should be like 160-165 , 160-170, 165-175 or even 170-180 bull call spreads. Choice of strikes dependent on your risk appetite. Traveling, hence don;t expect updates (2/2)
Whatever spread one does, has to be an expiry view. For example , the 170-180 bullspread is at Rs.1 risk. Be prepared to lose this Rs.1 and hold trade till expiry, if Adani expires > 180 you will get a profit of Rs.9. DO NOT TRY ANTICS ON FUTURES IN ADANI ENT
Fintwit is abuzz with the peculiar 3 day pattern completed today. From 2009, this has occured 12 times earlier. 11/12 times, the low of the middle candle was broken in the next maximum 12 days ( earliest 5 days). Sorry bulls :)
observation 1 : if we don't close the very next day above the high of today, fall starts
observation 2 : if today's low is broken the next day, fall is super-fast
In one line : If on Monday we fail to close above today's high, #danger . If we break today's low , " khun ka fountain , lasho ka mountain , #danger_danger_danger .
( With apologies to Ramsay bros)
As traders , we are students for life. Like professional sportsmen, we must continuously train ourselves . This year I have so far attended 4 seminars, the 5th one is scheduled next weekend at Lonavala
The year started off with #DECMA2018, I was an attendee. A diverse set of speakers curated by our @ap_pune , form P&F to derivative analyis to options. Got introduced to quite a few approaches, made some great friends
The next one was #AlgoConvention , by @technovestor . From algorithms, to machine learning to crypto currencies, this even had Viral Shah ( the father of Julia language) as a speaker. I was a speaker here and I explained the #intraburst to trade BN weekly expiries
Had previously warned about this bull-trap pattern on 3rd Oct, we all know what happened later. Now the same scenario again, some more die-hard bulls trapped. 10490 becomes the laxman-rekha. Cum OI increases, Nifty fut strongly bearish until 10490 is taken out.
Ok , now entered short positions on a pivotal , this time thru naked futures . Expecting a strong selloff on that counter . Now positions balanced in market 😀
other days I mention stock and levels, but not today. Expecting increasing volatility, I will handle/change my positions fast but might not get time to update on twitter. Hence not taking the risk of recco
I am running a pure contra trade today, in with buys at exactly day lows for the instrument. Getting profit on my buys, not taking it.. waiting. I will wait the whole move or get hit on my stop, will not book profits early. Let's see
see the day low :)
now selling 160 at 2.50, making net risk 1.1 with a max profit potential of 8.9 #insane if done correctly
Sharing one of my contra views. Adani Ent fut has had massive rise in cumulative OI and there has been a price brkout outside the range today. This means bears are trapped. Longs, whoever they are , are so strong that Adani has not sold off in this market mayhem (1/n)
If Nifty today sells off at SGX , bears will get more confidence to short tomorrow morning or will wait, they will not sqoff. I am expecting Adani to propel upto 160 very fast (2/n)
I will be using my day-trading system and my option strategies ( already in butterfly at 160) to trade this view. This stock is massively volatile with large bid-ask spreads and moves in jerks. Trading Adani requires skill, not for the faint hearted or slow traders (3/n)
Everyday this 300 is proving to be a really irritating level of ICICIBANK fut as it;s bouncing from here. Might not be the case today ;) I am holding my bear put spreads, will add more positions below 295, target 280
As of now, strong distribution seen. Bearish as long as ICICIBANK fut < 308.50 ( intraday system levels)
308.50 was never crossed, now breaks the day-low -ICICIBANK fut
This is where the first short was, then shorted more on the way down. Due to high vol, starting with 1 lot and then punching volumes if the trade goes in my favour. Else would have been out with SL on a single contract . High VIX --> different strategies