When I Retweeted this prediction, got this comment( after BNF fell a 1000 points). Nothing wrong, but like the majority he is a believer in randomness. Since it's Sunday and I am in the mood, let me give you a masterclass in context 😃
On Indian fintwit, I see two types of tweet streams from traders.
The first type is sharing analysis, making a forecast , discussing methods etc
The second type is continuously tweeting what others are doing wrong
The first type are actual traders in a good space, making money for themselves and followers.
I have seen enough traders in my life to understand that the second type is in a bad space, probably continuously losing money.
Hence they try to have an ego boost becoming "saviours of retail", continuously throwing muck and negativity throughout the day.
If you engage with the second type, even for entertainment, your trading will suffer( I learnt it the hard way)
Over the past few months, received enquiries from kids of 16-19yrs wanting to learn trading. The last one today. Initial reaction was of irritation that kids of such age running after money, hence advised them to complete studies first.
Then I remembered my mom trusting me with Rs.50k ( year 1991) to trade in the markets ( all deliveries). And we truly needed that money. Majority of our relatives said that my mom's decision to entrust me with money decisions will turn me into a gambler.
On the long-run, that decision turned out pretty well for me. Who knows what's forcing these kids to come to the markets. Without guidance and education, they will be mincemeat in today's markets.
So thinking of a way to teach/guide/train these kids for free
The rules for drawing a trendline are scientific. But, drawing trendline is an art. If one cannot draw trendlines, rather than proclaiming that trendlines do not work, one should work on mastering the art #Quantifying_breakouts
1-min will continuously give small scalps if you can do it correctly
I was always dismissive of daytrading done thru mobiles, mainly due to the absence of proper charting softwares. But the #TradingView app is surely going to be a gamechanger with custom coding / templates etc
Cannot open laptop due to family diktats 😁 , so did the trades on mobile . Charting on #TradingView , trading app #Upstox .
Position size low as I was apprehensive on mobile
A story from my commodity trading days . Why when the 'gaon' thinks something is easy money, it bites you in the ass unawares
I was in prop and out biggest money spinner was intra month arbitrage in silver futures . Year 2010-11.
Simply put, we bought near month fut and sold far month fut. Say the normal spread according to our analysis was 500. If the spread went up to 550 we sold, at 450 we bought
We also did short term spread trading as the spread hovered between 480-520 . Assume the normal spread to be around 500. We had multi year data to analyse where the spread was high or low
Retweeting as many would have missed this midnight tweet. Have some comments on IV, vol crush, theta effect and such . This video is on delta and gamma, so using " ceteris paribus" while explaining them.
For the comments on IV and Theta , please concentrate on delta and gamma first. Else it will be like " hele dhorte parena keute dhorte jai'" ( can't catch a garden snake tries to catch a cobra" ). And neither do they understand basic daytrading :(
" Let us keep in mind that the Greeks is not a system devised for beating the speculative game, or an infallible method of playing the market. The Greeks, indeed, must be read with a single heart. They become deceptive if and when the wish is father to the thought . 1/2
But there can be immense volatility. The way I play these days are : 1. Give first 15 mins to 45mins to the markets to normalise 2. Drastically reduce position size per trade ( smaller qty, larger stops)
"Higher the volatility, lower the position size"
If my normal size per day is an absolute amount 1R per trade, today I will do 0.2-0.25R. Meaning that if my normal size in 100, today it will be 20-25 per trade. If my normal targets are 2R, will target 3-4R today ( due to volatility)
Position sizing/money mgmt are the keys ;)
I have noticed from my own trading journal that whenever I have 2/3 days of very good trading performance/profits, then comes a day of loss.
I initially thought that this was a psychological issue where profits makes one complacent and one overtrades. But more analysis identified the reason which is related to the nature of the markets
The style I trade, getting large profits means the markets were volatile/trending
Now since volatility is mean reverting by nature and markets trend only max 20% of the time, after a few days markets become congested/pause. This is the zone my style gives me losses as these days I continuously get hit by stops
I realised that many traders have no idea how much regulatory costs impact PnL if trading futures. That's why I included that calculation. Do it on your trades , the answer will stun you if you don't know this .
Say you trade a fut lot. STT is on the whole contract value, say 10 lacs .
You do the same trade on options , STT is on on whole premium only .
BNF single lot contract value is 6lacs approx. A Rs.400 options contract value is 10,000.
You are paying 60 times more cost in fut
This is why I trade in options 99% of the time .
Plus, any bought option put or call is a defined risk bet. You cannot lose more than the premium value. In fut a single 20% gap against you can wipe u out . I know 🥰
Interesting read. It has been on my mind for sometime now , becoming a pure daytrader . The critical point was sometime a few months ago ( my handholding batch saw that trade ) where I got hit by a 400 point Nifty gapup against me and saw a 7 figure negative M2M.
It took all my experience to daytrade and scalp thruout the day to cover 80% of those losses( and it was draining) . But the initial hit was scary , despite being in options . Set me thinking about me as a trader , my trading style and what are my strong and weak points
I can enter very fast, with size , have perfect risk mgmt where I always get out at predefined losses . But if in a positional trade the gap up is against me , all risk mgmt goes for a toss as no way one can manage set risk overnight .
I had asked all attendees to always backtest a system taught to get confidence. So far only one person ( Virender Khanna) has done this and sent it to me. He has meticulously logged each trade mechanically thru the rules taught