Faisal Islam Profile picture
Econ Editor, BBC. Fin crisis book @theDefaultLine .. Newsnight. Host award-winning 2016 EUref TV interviews & 2017 GE debate. United ST.
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Mar 8 5 tweets 2 min read
1 in 4 Scottish adults on anti-depressants doctor just told Amol on @BBCr4today re inactivity…

Can’t find directly comparable England stat … but NHS England business data says there were 8.6m patients prescribed antidepressants in 22/23 (up from 6.8m in 2015)… 19% of adults Thanks followers - the doc did say 1 in 5, and the fact is here from NHS business data … 8.6m antidepressant prescriptions out of an adult population of 45 million… 5.6m women, 2.9m men. Up from 2015 6.8m prescriptions/ 43m population… (1 in 6)

these numbers seem astonishing. Image
Jan 19 8 tweets 4 min read
Epic Davos buzz thread -

1. Leading African figures told me privately that Kagame’s clear frustration with the UK-Rwanda deal, communicated to me “it’s UK’s problem” & “have money back” also reflect eyebrows being raised in other African nations about general look for a man who likes to be seen as the modern leader of a confident Africa, and who may have clocked that it may be reversing his considerable investments in nation-branding (sponsoring PL footy teams) etc. Watch this space. Here’s my iPhone video… 2. Remember, there are two sides to this deal:

I got a note from a very connected commentator after my doorstep: “It's a really bad look for him. He knows that the whole point of this policy is to make the UK govt look tough on migrants, on the grounds that Rwanda is presumptively a terrible place to be sent to. It puts the Rwanda country brand back like 20 years. … the only thing people associate with the country is "the worst place the Brits can think to send people"….
Context here - some real buzz about Africa jumping value chains, not just producing minerals but the finished products the world needs and doing so within a massive new free trade area…Image
Nov 21, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
NEW

Governor Bailey says the risk on inflation “remains on the upside” when talking to MPs… backdrop to the Autumn Statement push to declare a turning point - MPC member Catherine Mann also suggests rates should be higher, because of continuing price and wage pressures … Mann: inflation forecast points to not hitting 2% inflation target until mid 2026
Nov 1, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
extraordinary testimony from Dep Cabinet Sec Mcnamara, about “jovial tone” and “breezy confidence” of PM Johnson in face of Italian “overreacting” re first European Covid wave even there was “laughing at the Italians”…

at time Italian docs implored Brits to learn its lessons There was definitely some lobby briefing at the time with some sneering at the Italians - which I recall being really rather revealing, because my medical family were recirculating accounts from Italian doctor friends repeatedly warning UK to take advantage of headstart eg below
Oct 14, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW 🚨

German finance minister Lindner tells me:
“this a standing invitation for the UK if you want to intensify your trade relationship with EU - Call Us!”

Saying post Brexit trade barriers “new obstacles in daily business life” are not benefitting German business or the UK Lindner: “in daily life of German corporates, there are new obstacles since Brexit, I don't think UK is benefiting from Brexit. And so I, I believe i’m convinced we need new steps to reduce the obstacles in the daily business life for people and corporates to have trade”
Oct 5, 2023 10 tweets 4 min read
Japan building revolutionary 177 mile maglev from Tokyo to Nagoya for £45bn, 90% in tunnels under mountains as part of integrated Shinkansen system…

equivalent of London to Manchester (in straight line) in 40 minutes… at 310mph…

jrailpass.com/blog/maglev-bu… Think that budget will probably go up… but gives a sense of perspective on the costs of HS2 phase 1… and it’ll probably open before hs2 even though 2027 probs won’t be met.

But also how was it funded?

30 year “FILP” state loans with 0.5%- 1% interest rates taken out in 2017 Image
Oct 4, 2023 19 tweets 4 min read


Government is arguing that with the rise in costs, the cost benefit ratio for HS2 may have fallen below 1… some bus projects have a ratio above 4 (ie £4 for every £1 invested)…

But this would be for the whole project… now half built. So

1. Who will take responsibility for the spiralling cost of HS2 phase
1… did it ever make sense to build a tunnel from London to Birmingham… did they spend the cash that should have extended it to the north, the whole point, on tunnels to hide it?
Sep 20, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
On Net Zero row back…

Will hear from more big investors & companies who have invested many billions on cast iron commitments to transition timetable

Eg elec cars - significant concern having invested on assumption of transition, now undermined, at time of qs re consumer demand Image As I reported last week re Chinese imports, many carmakers were concerned about detail of Zero Electric Vehicle mandate which is due to come in, in January, but they weren’t calling for a delay, more flexibility to effectively prevent them from having to subsidise Chinese imports
Sep 18, 2023 11 tweets 3 min read
Should be interesting….

#minibudget Image Here we go…. Image
Sep 3, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
NEW

Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt tells #bbclaurak that the school shutdowns due to crumbly concrete “won’t” be like lockdown, and he’ll “spend what it takes” to “make sure kids are safe”… Chancellor points out one of his first decisions was to protect in cash terms overall capital budgets… “in cash terms” is a pretty important caveat here at a time of generationally high inflation - it was not protected in real terms - as a %n of GDP heading to 2.1% from 2.9% now
Aug 29, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
NEW

Government acknowledges for first time that the imposition of now further delayed post Brexit checks on EU food and agriculture imports will increase inflation … though says it is “expected to be minor” at less than 0.2% across three years Image In the new Border Operating model, Government says it has reduced burdens on importers by £500m a year (vs previous model, not status quo), but cost will be £330m pa… re 0.2% inflation “consequences of a major outbreak of plant/animal disease on economy could be far more severe” Image
Jul 30, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Rather massive elephant in room on politics of the car… is how coming Parliament will legislate to replace £28bn a year in fuel duty (given electric cars don’t use petrol/diesel, and new ones banned from 2030) with some other tax on motoring…

Much bigger than LTNs and Ulez… Government’s official position articulated by Chancellor/ Treasury is this:

“Government does not currently have plans to consider road pricing...
More broadly…revenue from motoring taxes will need to keep pace with change [to EVs], while remaining affordable for consumers” Image
Jul 14, 2023 12 tweets 5 min read
Join me on ⁦@BBCNewsnight⁩ at 2230 re why clean energy investment in UK declined, despite surging gas prices, are we becoming more dependent on imported gas, & what USA up to with Inflation Reduction Act/excl interviews with Biden Cabinet members/ Shapps/ industrialists Exclusive interview with @State_E “this is the largest investment ever made by one country in our clean energy future” State Departments Jose Fernandez #Newsnight
Jul 12, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
Bank of England just put out biannual assessment of financial stability risk

Basic message -risks around interest rate rises manageable.

Household debt service ratios up but wont go as high as in 2007.

Banks have enough capital even to withstand another global financial crisis

But clearly for a certain section of households that is a significant hit… this is a new Bank of England chart showing that by the end of the year a million households will experience monthly increases in mortgage bills of over £200, by end of 2026 that is over £500 a month…
Jun 12, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
Our latest on this when recorded this morning when I said felt we were in the endgame and it was heading Qatars way…. In after hours trading in NY, Manchester united shares spiked 17%… that is traders betting the Glazers are about to sell to Sheikh Jassim of Qatar…. Everyone involved keeping tight lipped though… Image
Jun 12, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW
UK 2 year borrowing costs (gilt rate) has gone above US equivalent - pretty rare in past several years… a couple of times in late 22 and 21 - hasn’t really happened in a sustained fashion since end 2014… uk rates anticipated to be higher for longer, given sticky inflation. ImageImage For mortgage holders - the 2 year borrowing rate is the floor for a 2 year fix - even parking the comparison with the US, at 4.66% it’s extremely close to the 15 year peak just 2 days after the mini budget of 4.75% …. Image
Jun 12, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
As I recall, the Chancellor only has two berths to effect a Commons resignation… Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead… but theres 3 resignations in the works… do two different MPs get appointed to the same role on the same day? Johnson has obviously already once been a Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead… precedents for a second go?
Jun 12, 2023 9 tweets 1 min read
PM talking “tectonic plates of technology” shifting at start of London Tech Week… “Leading on AI means leading on AI safety” says PM that big labs have committed to cooperate…
Jun 9, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
BREAKING

Boris Johnson standing down as an MP with immediate effect.

“I am now being forced out of Parliament by a tiny handful of people”

Quite the Friday night news drop - all on @BBCNewsnight tonight “I’m sad to be leaving Parliament - at least for now - but am bewildered and appalled that I can be forced out, anti democratically by a committee chaired by HArriet Harman” - Boris Johnson in a statement
May 16, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW / EXCL - breaking on #bbcnewsten and News online … Vauxhall owner Stellantis tells Government to renegotiate Brexit deal signed by Boris Johnson as it confirms for first time its UK electric car exports will not qualify for TCA from January as wont meet origin requirements. Stellantis document 🚨

‘We are now unable to meet these rules of origin…

“Our request to Government is to gain agreement with the EU to maintain the current rules until 2027”… “trade between the UK and EU would be subject to 10% tariffs making exports uncompetitive” Image
May 14, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
From the new green gold rush in Kentucky to portals of power in Washington, Berlin & Paris - new green industrial trade battle could change economics, diplomacy & politics here…

My long read on the future - is the UK being left on sidelines as some fear? bbc.co.uk/news/business-… Features on & off record interviews with US administration, EU, Paris, Berlin, Chancellor…and visit to an extraordinary development in US of cathode EV battery precursor material almost exclusively made out of China before $500m grant from US Govt & spades in ground the next day Image