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Markets centric datamodeling, analytics/technology, finance impact on society. Opinions solely for info/educational purposes + @mcm_ct_markets #ticktools feed
Tony Ruscitti Profile picture katcagle Profile picture NASH Profile picture traderbul Profile picture Maximuslegrand Profile picture 17 added to My Authors
20 Sep
this building in south florida which is a modern and recently built both residential & a decent sized shopping center - is 40% occupied (at best) by commercial tenants after and is NOT recovering - the biggest restaurant at the mall was almost empty at 8:30 PM last night /1
Bacciani Ristorante is completely empty and IMO can not see how they can continue to maintain rent payments with this going on on a saturday evening /2
open spaces on just ONE side of the mall /3
Read 5 tweets
3 May
#mcmCharts

lets get this started

THEY DID IT

and you didn’t believe me when I said the central banks wanted to see NEW ALL TIME HIGHS IN MAJOR INDEXES VS GDP /1
and NASDAQ COMPOSITE $COMPQ vs $GDP - certainly is there now imo /2
Breadth DID NOT CONFIRM THE HIGHS

BUT IT DID CONFIRM THE LOWS

and its NOT CONFIRMING THE TOP OF THIS RAMP INTO LAST WEEK

/3
Read 30 tweets
26 Apr
Very important thread & reflects my experience as a data developer/scientist for markets of how dishonest/misuse of data to reflect incorrect views/desired agendas works

Dr. Dan Ericksen/Armin Massihi go into expert/important detail re #covid19 data

h/t @auc_bakersfield /1
This will be a v long thread its with respect & humility that I put it together inspired by courage of these 2 Doctors to BUCK THE EMOTIONAL GROUPTHINK PRESSURE COOKER & try to help people + the country which is more than I can say for any of politicians

h/t @auc_bakersfield /2
I have organized all the video segments into neat and easy to read and understand cuts that you can easily reference, retweet or use

h/t @auc_bakersfield /3
Read 49 tweets
21 Feb
After hearing from some #ticktools users today I want to stress a few things in this small thread...and I urge you all to think about my comments personally and also review the webinars...

/1
One of the main features I tried to build into #ticktools is objective mechanisms/criteria that help you know when YOUR GAME and SELF & CAPITAL PRESERVATION needs to go up a notch...

the way I see it is this...

/2
WHEN THE MARKET MISBEHAVES...

U NEED TO IMPROVE YOUR BEHAVIOR...

its really simple really...& this is where Seller X-Ticks/exhaustions come in

BREAKING DOWN SELLING EVENTS MEANS SELLERS ARE BECOMING MORE EFFICIENCT

BREAKING DOWN X-TICKS MEANS SOMETHING IS CHANGING /3
Read 14 tweets
9 Feb
#mcmCharts

lets get this started with an update and detail on $BDI model

as you know I WAS POUNDING THE TABLE IN SEPT/OCT for many reasons re a very strong rally

this model is one of those reasons...& still projects a turn in April May but is not leaning more towards April /1
I will be adding posts to this probably around 20 to 30 charts but it may get to 40 or 50 depending on the day - keep checking back...needless to say there are quite a few troubling things starting to show up in charts which lead me to believe a major high is coming soon /2
I want to say for the record I am now of the view that China is executing a massive distraction and event to cover up a existential financial system crisis domestically.

1st distract
everyone sells panic
then huge stimulus
In April banking system blow up

/3
Read 36 tweets
22 Dec 19
#mcmCharts

lets start with forward looking charts

I have been posting $BDI for quite sometime...and as you can see it has been an exceptional forward cue on changes in direction for $SPX - its not great for scale of move but rather TIME...

Trouble starts in Q2 based on this /1
have been presuming $SPX would left translate to the $VOL projections on this chart...but getting increased less optimistic about Jan/Feb left translation...

UNTRANSLATED this points to April/May/June - lets just call it mid May...which is essentially same thing $BDI implies /2
have to finish #mcmPanicEuphoiraIndex array chart BUT we have new 5 year highs in these emotional tools

AS YOU KNOW I RIGHTLY SUGGESTED in NOV...multi-year highs increase time/effort to balance NOW WE HAVE NEW CONFIRMATIONS - very skeptical of a quick topping process $SPX /3
Read 66 tweets
15 Dec 19
#mcmCharts

lets get this going - will be adding to this over the evening

Gee - someone is pretty bearish #putcalls

NOT ONLY that #CNBS is warning of a #blackswan because of their concerns about put option activity

/1
AAII Bulls are still amazingly tepid... /2
on the shorter-term AAII Bulls are starting to reach a more elevated level BUT this is still low vs history /3
Read 67 tweets
23 Nov 19
50+ chart #mcmCharts thread coming this weekend...interesting stuff

Will be adding to this thread over the weekend

How about the #AAIIBULLS... incredible
/1
Let’s take a look at the medium, long and very long term #SPX

Appears that major resistance area coming up - over the next 100 to 300 points

/2
Based on this scenario which I have not altered since I posted in in early summer...we are +/- 100 to 200 points from the top of wave B which would make the same expanded flat that has appeared at every top for the last 20 years

/3
Read 56 tweets
19 Oct 19
2/

Cognitive dissonance has people possessed with looking for 5 wave impulses...when all I see are zigzags and we need to finish this last zag to the upside $SPX
3/

$SPX Earnings
Read 31 tweets
13 Oct 19
#mcmcharts

1/

50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL
2/

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2
3/

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
Read 61 tweets
13 Sep 19
#mcmCharts

1/ $TICK $NYAD $NYUD $SPX
2/

Permabulls are positively salivating over this pattern but markets are in distribution NOT accumulation presently

$SPX $SPHBI
3/

$BPSPX ticked up - however, seems destined for a lower high vs $SPX
Read 33 tweets
7 Sep 19
Some important charts coming this weekend

Keep this thread book marked will be updating it and adding charts into tomorrow

#mcmCharts

/1


Its just a freaking $SPX retest (on abysmal volume no less)
/2

WTF happened to the volume $SPX
3/

$SPX daily retest
Read 55 tweets
31 Aug 19
#mcmCharts

Let’s start with sentiment. #mcmPanicEuphoria and #mcmSentimentIndex

There are a lot of people talking about how there’s no chance of a big drop with people so negative/pessimistic...

THINK AGAIN

contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is a fools game imo

/1
2/

How is a change in market regime and psychology visible? how about buybacks

DELEVERAGING & REAL LIQUIDATION has been happening in key structural areas that have held up valuations/risk assets - & this is not a trivial issue. BUYBACK ASSETS are getting absolutely liquidated
3/

Regime change or capitulation - BUYBACK performance is HORRENDOUS and markets can not return to real strength imo without them and especially need them in the context of HUGE USTR issuances coming up and QT

imo this is move from a 10 year BULL market to an emerging BEAR $SPX
Read 28 tweets
20 Jul 19
#mcmCharts

1/

$SPX
2/

$SPX
5 day Advance Volume/Decline Volume
3/

$SPX
Read 21 tweets
4 Jul 19
#mcmCharts

1/

$SPX
2/

$SPX
3/

$SPX

seeing some calls on Ending Diagonals but this is far from perfect plus we are in leg 3 of one if it were to be the case AND given the insanity of this move leg 5 would almost certainly be an overthrow
Read 15 tweets
3 Jul 19
#mcmcharts

Will be posting a ton of charts in this thread

Update on the deleveraging patterns (broadening patterns)

$SPX
2/

$COPPER is behaving exactly as it has during other #centralbanking experiments when compared to $SPX
3/

Bulls remain at absurd lows and extremely under allocated which is very likely to create an accelerated/unprecedented FOMO situation if it gets going $SPX #AAII
Read 32 tweets
19 May 19
#mcm_charts

/1 $INDU
/2 10 day Put/Call ratios are outrageously given a little pullback from the ATH - troubling
/3 $compq
Read 20 tweets
2 Apr 19
Its a rage to talk buybacks=RAMP BUT:

1. buyback securities have underperformed
2. epic buybacks didnt hold mkt up in Oct/Dec

BUYBACKS are NOT imo whats driven this episode - INTERVENTION via order matching is: THROTTLING

THIS IS OUR THREAD RE THE NEW OFFICIAL INTERVENTION /1
this is going to be an in-depth discussion & a long thread which we will update throughout evening

so come back to check it as it will take an hour or 2 before we’re done with all the posts explaining the conditions/character/repercussions of this new intervention mechanism /2
lets talk abt the types of intervention thatve regularly been used

1. Direct Asset Purchases &/or QE
2. Short Vol (Fed’s favorite technique up till recently)
3. Self-help exchange interruptions

The new one: THROTTLING has huge advantages for the idiot yet intellectual class /3
Read 21 tweets
9 Feb 19
1/

#mcm_chartstorm

Professionals have been piling into puts - this is the 10 day #OEX put/call ratio
2/

SELL EVERYTHING!

(this post is especially for @yuriymatso)
3/

Longer-term $TICK is on the zero line (though this calculation is deceptive as in OVERLY OPTIMISTIC - even an over-optimistic measure with inherent quantization is at signficant risk of a major breakdown)
Read 68 tweets
26 Jan 19
1/

Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

Since most analysts (except a few great ones) we see on twitter appear to be copping out as mkt has risen, how much all this BULLISHNESS is really in the mkt? $SPX
2/

In the past we have discussed the epic internal/structural relationships between $NDX and $SPX in 2000 and $FAANGvs $SPX in 2019...lets take a look at that model again
3/

How lets take a look at how this model has played out since we posted it mid year last year...

$FAANG $FNG vs $SPX has followed the model extremely well, with one exception...the $FANG meltdown has been much worse structurally & nominally than the 2000 disaster.
Read 101 tweets
25 Jan 19
Complete Text of the Roger Stone indictment /1
Complete Text of the Roger Stone indictment /2
Complete Text of the Roger Stone indictment /3
Read 7 tweets