🧵Fed news along with a paper. "Rates, Term Premium and the Next Banking Crisis" drive.google.com/file/d/1L8c9Ex…

The recent easing of short-term interest rates has only led to an increase in long term bond yields. This result does not come at a surprise when looking at interest rate history. The red line is the average U.S. Treasury yield curve since 1977-02-01 to 2025-12-01. The green line is the adaptive yield curve using lagged regression of daily data. The grey line is the entrenched adaptive expectation of CPI. Our bond market demands a premium over CPI.

Below is a table with the regressions for each point on our adaptive yield curve. Long term rates are near the anchor and political pressure deflates short term rates. Everyone loves free money... term premium expansion is just getting started next frame.

More interesting is the response by the banking industry to the steepening yield curve. Can we see evidence of 'borrow short and lend long'? If the adage is true, policy that steepens the curve may intensify maturity transformation risk. Financial history is littered with examples of banks being caught by sudden rate rises that overwhelm the credit spread in their loan portfolios

Thread: Zelensky's Bold Claim – Ukraine Joining the EU by 2027? Full Breakdown & Implications

1/5 🇺🇦 Zelensky declares: Ukraine should finalize EU membership "by 2027." In recent statements (Vilnius press conference, Jan 25, 2026, and talks with Austrian Chancellor), he calls it a concrete "economic security guarantee" for a war-torn country. He wants the date locked into any peace deal to prevent future blocks and provide post-war stability. Ukraine targets technical readiness (opening all negotiation clusters) by mid-2026, full readiness by 2027.

2/5 Potential Consequences:

For Ukraine → Massive reconstruction aid (~hundreds of billions €), single market access, reforms boost (anti-corruption, rule of law), long-term economic shield. Seen as a "victory" symbol against Russia, plus security via EU integration (without full NATO yet).
For the EU → Huge budget strain (agriculture competition impacting CAP, cohesion funds), institutional reforms needed (unanimity of 27 states tricky – Hungary/Slovakia oppose), longer border with Russia → more hybrid threats (cyber, sabotage).
Geopolitics → Strong message to Moscow, faster Western anchoring for Ukraine. But experts in Brussels call 2027 "nonsense" or "unrealistic" – typical accession takes years/decades, war complicates reforms.

3/5 Would this drag Europe into war with Russia? No, not automatically.

EU is not like NATO: Article 42.7 requires "aid and assistance" in case of armed aggression, but it's vague/flexible – no automatic military response or integrated command.
Timeline skepticism: Many EU diplomats dismiss fast-track as impossible without peace first; no consensus for "integrating war" into the bloc.
Real risks are indirect: Heightened tensions (Russia views it as Western win → more hybrid aggression), but goal is deterrence/stability, not escalation. Focus is on sanctions, aid coalitions, not direct troops. No one wants nuclear risk.

#GiornodellaMemoria thread

#GiornodellaMemoria

#GiornodellaMemoria

If you’re in your 20s, Read this:

1.

2.

3.

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Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, “Eric Swalwell, congressman, candidate for California governor, yes, the same guy whose Chinese Communist spy girlfriend raised money for his campaigns, and yes, the same guy who knowingly lied about Trump and the Republicans and
1)

has been shown to be antisemitic, now has threatened that when he is governor, he will revoke all driver licenses from employees of ICE. Though he swore an oath to the US Constitution, he clearly does not understand anything about it.
2)

So tell us, is this guy that stupid, or does he just not care what the law is—like a lot of his ilk.”
3)

Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, “The political lies governments tell – Israel and settlements

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has said that Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria are illegal and should be dismantled.”
1)

First of all, the ICJ has no legal jurisdiction as Israel is not a member (the USA is also a non-member). Second of all, it gets the law wrong. Why? Politics, antisemitism, double standards.

Let’s be honest. There is no occupation by Israel.
2)

There are no occupied territories.
Israeli villages, farms and towns in Judea and Samaria are not in violation of International law.
3)

BREAKING: Grizzly Affair — American tech company’s networking gear is powering Russian battlefield communications in Ukraine. The company is Ubiquiti, $UI, a $34 billion Wi-Fi giant whose founder became the youngest owner of an NBA Team in 2012.

Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, Hunterbrook Capital is short $UI and long a basket of comparable securities at the time of publication. Positions may change at any time. See website for full disclosure. Our affiliate Hunterbrook Law is in conversations with litigation firms regarding potential private litigation on behalf of Ukrainians impacted.

Hunterbrook’s monthslong investigation found Ubiquiti wireless bridges — banned from export to Russia under U.S. and EU laws — are widely used by Russian troops, including possibly in drone operations against Ukrainian civilians that the U.N. has called crimes against humanity.

“Without Ubiquiti, their Mavics stop working,” a Ukrainian drone officer with a callname Django told Hunterbrook, referring to the drones.

1. Fellow citizens, thank you for the many inquiries on my safety over the course of the 67 weeks of my hiatus. It's very humbling.

I possess no importance to probe nor address this any further

Meanwhile, there's been a more important & consequential return

Let's talk about it

2. If doubt over Nelson's relevance in our politics had begun creeping in, reactions post his return press conference have swept all that away.

Analysis, outbursts, whispers, have all become the order of the day, as politicians position themselves, & citizens observe curiously.

3. Knowing Nelson and the person that he is, I undoubtedly suppose he soberly understands the gravity of what this means.

It is not, and can not be, about him as a person, nor his political ego, if ever he possessed one.
Rather, it's about his role in shaping our history.

While the intentions behind the regulation is commendable, the way sought to eradicate the issue of discrimination is deplorable.

Excluding one particular community makes them the prime target. Gen category students will have to live in constant fear or spend their academic...

... journey proving themselves innocent if fabricated in a false case.

Yes, discrimination exist but so exists the weaponization of the law; and false SC/ST cases against individuals are not incontrovertible.

The question is why there is no any penal provisions against those narrating a false story? And why it has been assumed that only a person from gen. category will commit academic discrimination?

🔴 BREAKING: Sakeliga and partners issue legal demands to Minister Steenhuisen on FMD vaccination

Sakeliga, @Saai_org and @vslandbou have sent the Minister and his colleagues a legal letter of demand regarding the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak.

Here's what you need to know 🧵

Our Demand:

Sakeliga requires written confirmation by Friday 30 January 2026 that:

1️⃣ Livestock owners may procure FMD vaccines
2️⃣ Private operators may administer vaccines according to their own risk management
3️⃣ No state gatekeeping or red tape will prevent this

The Legal Position:

Sakeliga's understanding of relevant legislation and regulations is:

📋 There is currently no legal impediment to private owners of livestock procuring and administering relevant FMD vaccines
📋 Outside of "controlled areas", no measures appear to be prescribed

The law does not prevent private vaccination.

ز‌آن که تو داوود دمی‌، من چو کهم رفته ز جا
Since the breath (Psalms) comes from David, the listener although a mountain! Loses its stability.
...................

Psalm 150:6 "Let everything that has breath praise the Lord! Praise the Lord!"

Psalm 63:4 "I will bless You with every breath of my life; I will lift up my hands in praise to Your name."

Psalm 39:5 "You have made my days a mere handbreadth; the span of my days is as nothing before you. Everyone is but a breath, even those who seem secure."

رستم از این نفْس و هوا زنده بلا مرده بلا
زنده و مرده وطنم (Psalm 37:11) نیست به جز فضل خدا

رستم از این بیت و غزل ای شه و سلطان ازل
مفتعلن مفتعلن مفتعلن کشت مرا

قافیه و مغلطه را گو همه سیلاب (Psalm 124:4-5) ببر
پوست بود پوست بود درخور مغز شعرا

ای خمشی (Psalm 62:1 (or 62:5)) مغز منی پردهٔ آن نغز منی
کم‌تر فضل خمشی کش نبود خوف و رجا

بر دِه ویران نبود عشر زمین کوچ و قَلان
مست و خرابم مطلب (Psalm 31:1 ) در سخنم نقد و خطا

تا که خرابم نکند کی دهد آن گنج به من (Psalm 63:3)
تا که به سیلم ندهد کی کشدم بحر عطا

مرد سخن را چه خبر از خمشی همچو شکر
خشک چه داند چه بود ترلللا ترلللا

آینه‌ام آینه‌ام مرد مقالات نه‌ام
دیده شود حال من ار چشم شود گوش شما

دست فشانم چو شجر چرخ‌زنان همچو قمر
چرخ من از رنگ زمین پاک‌تر (Psalm 73:1) از چرخ سما

عارف گوینده بگو تا که دعای تو کنم
چون که خوش و مست شوم هر سحری وقت دعا (Psalm 30:5)

دلق من و خرقهٔ من از تو دریغی نبوَد
و‌آن که ز سلطان رسدم (Psalm 96:3) نیم مرا نیم تو را

از کف سلطان رسدم ساغر (Psalm 60:3) و سغراق قدم
چشمهٔ خورشید (Psalm 84:11) بوَد جرعهٔ او را چو گدا

من خمشم خسته گلو عارف گوینده بگو
ز‌آن که تو داوود دمی‌، من چو کهم رفته ز جا

ganjoor.net/moulavi/shams/…

Psalm 84:11 "For the LORD God is a sun and shield; the LORD bestows favor and honor. No good thing does he withhold from those who walk uprightly".

@ThreadReaderApp unroll
@grok

Matthew 24:14
And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.

@grok you have Messianic Complex and Bipolar Mental Disorder @grok you spread psycho diseases.

@grok unroll the tweet

@grok deeply analyzes and approve what I mentioned by checking the facts.

@grok you are AntiChrist.

Regarding the matter that you @grok just provide false information now show the results of your interpretation then I can see the reality by discarding the information you will deny to hide the truth from people.