SitRep - 29/01/26 - An energy truce in place?

An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump said a local energy truce is in place in the Kyiv region. Ukrainian officials learned this via press remarks and didn't know.

REPOST=appreciated

1/X

Missed the latest?

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2016795027586822362

As usual we start with Russian losses

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2016795429707358593

🧵 Paper is panicking. Physical is disappearing. 🧵

1/ A lot of old & silver miner stocks just hit limit down. That’s not a signal of weak metal. That’s a signal of forced selling and paper stress.

2/
Here’s the part that actually matters 👇

Major Chinese banks report that available gold bar vaults have been reset to ZERO.

Zero.
Not “low.”
Not “tight.”
Zero.

In the early 1990s, both India and China were looking to modernize their air forces. In a twist of history, they both chose Russia's most capable (and available) Sukhoi Flanker as their starting point. However, from there, their journeys split. India focused on getting the best possible modern jet for its air force; China focused on learning how to build its own. Thirty years on, one is still a customer, the other is a peer competitor. This is how the Flanker shaped, or could have shaped, two nations' aviation industries 🧵 1/6

India’s Su-30MKI is a marvel of integration, blending a Russian frame with French, Israeli, and Indian tech. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), India's premier aerospace company, did a fantastic job achieving over 60% indigenous content by value. However, the aircraft's "design authority" remained in Moscow. Yes, India owns the assembly, but Russia still owns the DNA, and they’ve used that leverage to limit India’s ability to evolve the airframe into a new domestic platform. 2/6

China's Shenyang J-11 program, on the other hand, was a masterclass in aggressive indigenization. They didn't just assemble Su-27s from kits; they "sinicized" them. They set up parallel facilities to develop tech that eventually replaced Russian components, including airframe, radar, avionics, and source codes. Most importantly, they swapped Russia's AL-31 engine for the indigenous WS-10. In other words, they broke the proverbial umbilical cord and turned a licensed product into an independent design lineage. 3/6

The USAF last days began a large-scale redeployment of aircraft and logistical assets toward the Middle East. Judging by the structure of the flight activity, this appears to be a planned reinforcement phase rather than scattered, unrelated movements.
Within a 24-hour period,
1/

several aerial refueling aircraft—four KC-46 Pegasus tankers and one KC-135—departed from Homestead Air Reserve Base and Roosevelt Roads as part of CORONET East 035.
Notably, there is no formal confirmation of fighter aircraft being redeployed together with the tankers.However
2/

the flight routes and callsigns suggest a possible accompanying transfer of Vermont Air National Guard F-35A fighters.
Against this backdrop, the intensified activity of U.S. Army heavy airlift aviation is even more telling. From Robert Gray Army Airfield (Fort Hood), home to
3/

The Maratha Ascendancy Explained Through Contemporary Evidence: How Mughal Power Was Absorbed, Redirected, and Exercised by a New Ruling Elite.

Examined Strictly Through Contemporary Primary Sources.

Thread 🧵—

From the reign of Chhatrapati Shahu, the son of Dharmaveer Chhatrapati Shambhuji Maharaja, the Marāṭhās secured a firm hold in the Deccan and initiated systematic expansion into North and East India. The northern advance was conducted chiefly under the leadership of the Dabhade, Pawar, and Gaikwad houses. This movement took decisive shape during the Peshwaship of Balaji Vishwanath, the father of Bajirao Ballal. Upon Bajirao’s elevation to the office of Peshwa, he, together with the Shinde and Holkar chiefs, wrested Malwa from Mughal control and incorporated it into the Swarajya. Contemporary Portuguese records refer to Chhatrapati Shahu as the lord of the whole of Hindostan, that is, North India.

After the death of Bajirao in 1740, Balaji Bajirao, known as Nanasaheb, succeeded him as Peshwa. Following the death of Chhatrapati Shahu in 1749, Shahu’s adopted son Ramraja ascended the throne as Chhatrapati in 1750.

According to a document dated 31 August 1743, the subhas of Malwa, Ajmer, Agra, and Prayagraj were paying revenue to the Marāṭhās. What remained necessary, however, was formal recognition from the Mughal government, since in theory the Mughal emperor was still regarded as the sovereign of North India.

Thread on US - Iran confrontation & its drivers🧵: The US-Iran clash isn't about nukes, missiles, or human rights. Those are excuses. It's rather an inevitable ideological war where the US aims to end Iran's Islamic Revolution. This is existential for Tehran. 1/7

Historical roots: Under Pahlavi, Iran was a Western ally, propped up by the 1953 US/UK coup against Mossadegh's oil nationalization. The 1979 Revolution flipped this, creating an anti-imperialist Islamic Republic defying US hegemony. 2/7

Ideologically irreconcilable: Iran's Revolution rejects Western liberalism, secularism, and individualism, viewing the US as the "Great Satan." It promotes Muslim unity against oppression, including opposition to Israel as a colonial outpost. 3/7

Just a hypothesis—not a prediction. And sincerely, I hope it proves wrong.

History suggests that global resets rarely announce themselves loudly. They arrive quietly, coordinated in fragments, and only appear obvious in hindsight.

There is every signal, still fragmentary, still deniable—that suggests the global financial and geopolitical order may be approaching an inflection point rather than a gradual transition.

One possible scenario resembles a black swan moment: a disorderly repricing triggered not by credit, but by confidence—specifically if large holders begin accelerating the dumping of U.S. Treasury notes after sufficient accumulation of hard assets like gold, silver, & rare earth.

🇨🇦 Arctic 2026

A. NORAD Modernization Program

$38.6 billion plan (2022–2042) currently in highest-growth phase as projects move from "Definition" to "Implementation"

Planned Capital Spend 26-27: $19.0 billion. A significant jump from 25-26, as major equipment deliveries begin

For Current Year:

1) A-OTHR (Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar): $6.9 billion total program value. JORN + Crossbow. Land-clearing and initial engineering contracts for the Ontario sites (Kawartha Lakes/Clearview) primary focus. P-OTHR to follow.

2) F-35 Fighter Infrastructure (DCFI): $7.3 billion total. 2026 marks the arrival of the first F-35 aircraft, triggering construction spending for "Quick Reaction Alert" facilities in Inuvik, Yellowknife, Iqaluit, and Goose Bay

Higher Pensions. More Jobs. Record Infrastructure Spend. Here’s what Kerala Budget 2026–27 has to say📈

BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS 👇

#KeralaBudget2026 #BudgetHighlights #KeralaDevelopment #Welfare

1⃣
Budget Overview
Welfare & Social Security
Women-Centric Schemes
Youth & Employment

2⃣
Scheme Workers – Wage Hike
Fiscal Strength
Local Governments
Housing & Poverty

This is why it is hard for me to be heard by Canadian Media trying to address issues of Jeffrey Epstein, oil sands, natural gas or risks of pipelines.

I will speak for myself on what I have seen. This is about Neil Baker.

This is about Conrad Black

^*A Thread for @K4Yeshua that may help others as well*^*

🧵//Recovering data from suspended X accounts – 2026 methods (US focus) Again i am sorry you're dealing with this, losing years of uploads/docs is a nightmare. Here's the best current paths to recover what you can.

// Full recovery isn't guaranteed (X purges data eventually), but official requests + archives have good success rates through 2025-2026. Many Americans have retrieved media/tweets this way.

// To target searches best, share (DM for privacy): • Old @usernames (key for lookups) • Rough active/suspension dates • Tweet IDs, media URLs, filenames, keywords • Your state (CA = CCPA rights) • Linked emails/phones the more info the better.

Every day, Trump denigrates the US to a worse banana republic:
"Donald Trump sues the IRS and Treasury for at least $10bn
Lawsuit stems from the disclosure of the US president’s tax documents during his first term" /1
ft.com/content/7488b3…

This is absurd in many ways.
1. How can a president sue his Ministry of Finance & tax authority? That should be prohibited.
2. The only cause is that somebody published Trump's tax returns, which he had promised to publish himself. /2

3. In the Nordic countries, unlike the US the least corrupt countries in the world, ALL TAX RETURNS ARE PUBLIC. That is called transparency that checks corruption.
4. As usual, Trump demands outrageous damages for no harm to repress the freedom in the US. /3