Thread by @kamilkazani

Military casualties in Ukraine and the end of Russia as we know it

Let's look on the list of killed Russian generals:

Major-General Suhovetsky
Major-General Gerasimov
Major-General Kolesnikov
Major-General Mityayev
Lieutenant-General Mordvichev
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)🧵

Not counting a Chechen general Tushaev, who's an officer of Kadyrov's personal army, Mordvichev was the highest ranked Russian general killed so far. He was a commander of 8th Guard Army of the Southern Military District (=close to Ukraine)

Groups of Russian military in social media look like a never-ending list of necrologies. Consider this group of Russian airborne VDV. A captain, a colonel-lieutenant, first lieutenant, general-major are all dead. Notice they're listing only officers, including high ranked ones

Let's go to comments. A deputy commander of an airborne regiment is killed. The first comment with Z avatar:

"My God 😭😭 Are they gonna bring us half of the regiment in coffins. Every day we see regiment 331. Condolescences 🙏 to family and friends. Eternal memory and glory"

Notice Z: its author fully supports Z-operation. And yet, she's shocked by the scale of casualties. Apparently even for Z-folk the endless stream of coffins from Ukraine looks disheartening. That's why trucks with dead and wounded Russian soldiers typically show up only at night

Consider that this all is happening in a quickly depopulating country which is growing old. Russia has few youths to send to Ukraine. Russia is now a pensionary country and it's fasicsm is pensionary fascism. Specifically babushka fascism - there aren't so may grampas around

They're urgently trying to lure whomever to the army. These are listings on Avito. Avito is a classified advertisements website, kinda Craigslist. There you can find jobs, real estate, cars and whatever for sale, services, etc. They're using every channel to boost recruitment

Some advertisments are aimed at imbeciles. A recruitment station is inviting people to join "reserve". They'll be paid only for manouvers: Officers - up to 10 000 roubles for 3 days, sergeants and soldiers - up to 5 000 rubles. Broke idiots who join gonna be sent to Ukraine

For 30 days of maneovers they're offering 30-75 000 rubles to officers. Before the war it was 500-1000 usd. Sergeants and soldiers would get 150-400 usd. Russian army is luring the brokes paying them almost nothing. That's important to keep in mind

There are also unconfirmed news that Russia will send to Ukraine adolescents from Юнармия - the Youth Army. That's a patriotic paramilitary organisation. I can't confirm that's true but with situation worsening they might. Sending there conscripts is illegal and they still do

Z-war heavily relies on minorities. That's understandable. First of all, there are not so many young Russian males to send, so you need to target minorities with higher fertility. Second, affluent will dodge so you send broke ones. Here you Siberian natives killed in Ukraine

Participation of North Caucasians is even higher than that. This cafe in Dagestan feeds families of Z-soldiers for free. Reportedly, Samilksy District of Dagestan with population of 29868 people sent 500 guys to fight to Ukraine. Soldiers, cops, National Guard whomever

That's quite ironic. Russian nationalist expansion in Ukraine heavily relies on people who are not considered fully human from the Russia perspectives. They are called хачи, чурки, обезьяны (apes) and yet they provide a huge share of recruits for Z-war

We must distinguish Chechnya from the rest of Caucasus. Dagestan or Ingush serve in Russian army like everyone else. In military terms they're regulars. But Chechnya is a kingdom of Kadyrov and Chechen army, police, FSB etc are his personal army. Watch this video, feel the vibe

When you look at Kadyrov's forces in Ukraine, you can see how clean they are, how fresh, not tired at all. They're heavily burdened with equipment. Why? Because they're terror and PR troops who try to skip the fighting. They're to police, torture, keep control, not to fight

Compare those Kadyrov's cyborgs with Chechen mujahideen of the First Chechen War. You clearly see a difference. Men who actually fought tried to dress lightly, take less burden and equipment. They were also quite dirty from the fight, unlike shining show-off troops of Kadyrov

Strelkov confirms it:

"In Mariupol Chechens didn't enter the battle. Why?

- Chechens are too darling to our commanders
- Someone has to pose for the victory photos. Chechens are fresh, masculine, jacked, gonna look great
- Commanders fear Kadyrov's anger for Chechen casualties"

Kadyrov's troops are not for fighting. They'd rather skip it. They're for keeping control, making PR and ofc torturing. Have a look at this video how Kadyrov's soldier makes a captured Ukrainian shout "Ахмат - сила" (Ahmad strong). Ahmad - is the name of Kadyrov's father

How will these casualties impact Russian society? Well, Russian fascism is pensionary, babushka fascism. Media are crying how sanctions will hurt poor babushkas forgetting that babushkas are *the* main electorate of Putin. This demographic group supports Z most enthusiastically

Watch this video endorsing Z-invasion. It issued by an organisation called "Putin's troops" - отряды Путина. It gives you a good glimpse of Putin's electoral base. People imagine Russia as a "bear", hard, determined, bestial power. In fact Russia is insane warmongering babushka

There is however a problem. First, insane warmongering babushkas who comprise the bulk of electorate support Z. But it's not them who's gonna fight and die. It's the youth who are much less enthusiastic. Compare this anti-war protest demographics with that of "Putin's troops"

There's another problem. Look at these funerals in regional capital of Vladimir. They're burying the entire leadership of Vladimir SOBR, all four their lieutenant colonels. SOBR is a branch of National Guard dealing with the organised crime. And they're being massacred in Ukraine

This may be a huge consequence of this war. Ukrainian War may provide a final solution of the Siloviki question. Siloviki are police, state security, intelligence and other paramilitary. This "new nobility" as their chief called them are the real source of Putin's power

Ask yourself, why elites do even obey Putin? Why barons submit to the courtiers? Well, because if they disobey Putin gonna "send a doctor". Here Moscow siloviki are arresting Khabarovsk governor Furgal who didn't forge the election in Putin's favor

Russia is a vast and very unequal country. Socio-economic and other parameters of its regions vary greatly. Putin enforced obedience, but enforced it by brutal violence. Russian siloviki whom he directly subordinated to Moscow terrorised barons, making them obey to Kremlin

Putin's reign of terror was largely motivated by objective limitations. Here you see Russia divided into three zones, red, blue & white, with almost equal population - 48,9 million. Which means key economic regions of Siberia are unthinkably remote from Russian population centres

That's why Putin had to use rely on sheer force so heavily. In a country like Russia courtiers have to use a lot of force to keep barons at check, there's no other way. And these siloviki guys were the main tool of Kremlin: arms of the courtiers used to control the barons

And here they go. This is not a funeral of Russian soldiers nor of the SOBR leadership. It's the funerals of Putin's regime and of Russia as we know it. Very soon barons will have almost no reason for obedience. Balance of power within elites gonna be renegotiated. End of 🧵

If you like to read my long reads, you can subscribe to my Substack kamilkazani.substack.com

PS recording of "Putin's troops" didn't upload. So I do it now. This message endorsing Z-invasion and Putin gives a good idea on Putin's electoral base. Russian warmongering is not youthful ferocity, it's rather geriatric insanity