Kamil Galeev Profile picture
May 21, 2022 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The defence of Mariupol seems to be unprecedented in the recent military history. Some pro-Russian pundits claimed that defenders were "hiding" in the catacombs of the Azovstal. That's factually wrong. They repeatedly counterattacked ambushing Russian soldiers on the city streets
Mariupol is a key industrial center located almost on the Russian border. It was besieged on the very first day of the war and completely surrounded by the early March. Still, its defenders continued resisting till the late May in the deep rear of Russian forces Image
Defenders of Mariupol achieved two objectives. First of all, they deflected the Russian attention. Azovstal becoming an Alcazar-like symbol, Russians had to keep on attacking the plant which remained in their rear instead of just pushing forward. That helped Ukraine to buy time
With every new week of the war the balance of power is changing in favour of Ukraine, not only due to narrowly defined "military" but also due to material factors. Ukraine is getting lend lease, while Russia is getting sanctions burden which amount to an anti lend lease program
I'll cover the logic of sanctions (as I see it) later. For now I would like to say that they look like an almost exact reversal of the lend lease program of WWII. Russian industries are being turned off now roughly in the same order as they were turned on in the 1940s
Some perceive Hitler's decision to invade the USSR as madness. I'll however argue that it was a very well-thought decision. Hitler assumed that the German advance would break the Soviet supply & technological chains thus undermining their military capacities. That was correct
What Hitler didn't take into account however, was the gargantuan scale of the American aid, which specifically targeted all the gaps in Soviet supply chains created by the German advance. The US targeted bottlenecks in the Soviet supply chains turning industries on one by one
Right now Russian industries are being turned off one by one in roughly the same order as they were turned off in the 1940s. The effect of sanctions was very much visible since the 2014 (just read the interviews with engineers and technologists of the military plants)
Still, both the aid to Ukraine and the anti lend lease program for Russia need time to produce a significant effect. And the resistance of Mariupol was one of important factors in gaining this time for the rest of Ukraine
Defenders of Mariupol achieved one more objective. They destroyed a significant number of Putin's subjects: both the Russian regulars (possible to estimate) and the Donbass levy (impossible to estimate right now), depleting the quickly shrinking manpower that Putin can employ
The Russian advance slowed significantly. They retreated from the North (Kyiv, Cherhnihiv). Ukrainians are now successfully counterattacking in the Northeast (Kharkiv). Still, the war will continue and probably continue for long. So the material help is needed urgently
Their website have links for donating in crypto:

BTC (Bitcoin):
17C55k8KftKbovKb789e4diBHjyk4kXyF5
ETH (Ethereum):
0xa8d4c3aa7c6e44a4c414db03e9b03de99f82b3b0
LTC (Litecoin):
LiCAiuXKXhYSCmnr4XhunHHfFnxqRD4opr
BNB (Binance Coin):
0xa8d4c3aa7c6e44a4c414db03e9b03de99f82b3b0
Bank transfer

ГО «ФЕСТИВАЛЬ ФАЙНЕ МIСТО»
ЄДРПОУ/ДРФО 39215950
в АТ КБ «ПриватБанк»
МФО 338783

UA063387830000026004055129490 — UAH
UA063387830000026007055136178 — USD
UA373387830000026003055124504 — EUR
UA183387830000026002055125656 — GBP
UA073387830000026004055144798 — PLN
And PayPal: azovatek@gmail.com. azov.org.ua/donate/
If you would like to donate, here you can find more links. You could contribute financially by Visa, Mastercard, Google Pay or Apple Pay (this is verified) fainemisto.com.ua/en/donate/
A bit later I'll publish a larger thread with links for donating to the specific detachments of the Ukrainian military, including the army, the territorial troops and the national guard. End of thread

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kamil Galeev

Kamil Galeev Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kamilkazani

Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(