Thread by @kamilkazani

Not wrong, but I'd reframe it. Yep, Russia is enforcing the "draconian capital controls". But "control" can't be a goal, it's only an instrument. For what?

Since the start of the war, Russian gov has been building the *two contour economy*. Let's discuss it briefly (not a 🧵)

https://twitter.com/TradeandMoney/status/1537684480806248448

When discussing the capital controls it's important to understand a broader sociopolitical structure of a country. Russian export revenue is primarily the raw materials export revenue. And thus the raw materials *exporters'* revenue. It's the revenue of few gigantic corporations

For comparison: take a glance at the Turkey's export structure for the same year (2017). The Turkish export is not just more complex, it's also way more diverse. The bulk of it is comprised by small and microscopic exporters. Who are more difficult to control than few giant corps

This is the major difference between the Putin's and the Erdogan's regime which is overlooked so often. Irrespective of their personalities or agenda, Turkey has tons of small and tiny exporters while Russia does not

Ergo. Turkey has tons of independent fortunes. Russia does not

Let's visualise Russian dominance hierarchy. It negatively correlates with complexity. The simpler* an industry is, the more powerful (&mafia like) interest group takes over it. Kremlin's control over oil & gas is direct and total

* takes more time to destroy with bad management

Now let's look at the Russian exports. The bulk of the export revenue is earned by few gigantic raw materials exporting corps who are controlled by the most powerful interest groups directly subordinate to Kremlin

There's nearly zero independent fortunes. Kremlin controls all

All for now, I'll elaborate another time