Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 23 7 tweets 2 min read
Yes, rulers of Iran - Safavids, Afsharids, Qajars, constantly fought with Dagestanis. But modern Dagestanis do *not* associate those dynasties with Iran. They associate them with Azerbaijan

"Qajars"/"horse shit" are common Lezgin slurs against Azeri rather than Persian people
"Horse shit" is a disparaging term against the equestrian culture that ruled Iran and would just come burn and pillage the Caucasus. And in North Caucasian minds it is the Azeri who are the continuation of that culture. Azeri are "Qajars"
Nowadays we are used to perceive Iran as a Persian state. But for the period of 1000 to almost 1900 there is very little truth in it. It was usually nomads-ruled, most typically Turkic-nomads-ruled. Nader Shah could literally call a Qurultai to work out an important decision
Consider that two archrivals: the "Turkish" sultan Selim and the "Persian" Shah Ismail were both prolific poets. But Selim write in Persian and Ismail - in Azeri. Makes sense. Selim ruled over a bureaucratic empire where the men of pen (and thus Persian culture) had high status
Meanwhile Ismail ruled over a much more democratic federation of tribes who just happened to conquer a massive sedentary society. The balance of power and status here was more in favour of men of sword. Distancing himself from his kin like Selim would be suicidal for Ismail
Both the Ottomans and Safavids originated as a Turkic conquest state founded by a nomadic assabiyah as described by Ibn Haldun. But the Ottomans went through a proper monarchic usurpation (ruler usurps all the glory of victory for himself) while the Safavids probably never did
It would be wrong to perceive either empire as a nation state in a modern sense. The Iran wasn't a Persian state and the Ottoman Empire wasn't a Turkish one. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 22
How can Putin make stuff?

Chinese-Russian alignment is much like Schroedinger's cat. It's alive and dead at the same time. Let me illustrate this on example of the Russian military industry, which contrary to the popular opinion is *not* backed by China. It's backed by Europe🧵 Image
Consider this great article by Vershinin. The West largely lost its industrial warfare capabilities, but Russia did not. Its military strategy is based on capacities to produce lots of missiles and shells. Way more than the US is able to produce

rusi.org/explore-our-re… Image
Russian missile and artillery centric strategy is possible only due to the superior capacity to mass production. Russia can afford firing so many missiles and shells, because it produces many of them, way more than the US can make

But how is that possible? Image
Read 58 tweets
Jun 21
Brat-2 and the Russian state cult

The CEO of Russian aerospace (& missiles producing) state company Roskosmos Rogozin published this video in his telegram channel РОГОZИН. It may look weird for foreigners but Russians understand this allusion very well (not a thread)
In his video Rogozin is basically threatening the outer world with the nuclear war, while reading some silly childish sounding poem. For context let's have a look on another video, also from his Telegram channel t.me/rogozin_do. Russian fighters are reading the same poem
Pretty much every modern Russian can easily understand the reference. It is a poem from the Brat-2 movie, where Russian mafia members are departing to the US to take revenge against an American criminal boss
Read 16 tweets
Jun 19
Some believe that the current escalation between Russia and the West is just a personal decision of Putin. Not quite. Watch this Yeltsin's speech in Beijing in 1999 before meeting Li Peng. Three weeks later Yeltsin abdicated, leaving the PM Putin as the acting President of Russia
Many in Russia presumed that "good" Yeltsin made a horrible mistake, accidentally appointing "bad" Putin as his successor. I don't believe that. Three last Yeltsin's PMs were all career intelligence officers. He was actively looking for such an heir and was vetting the candidates Image
Putin's track was kinda typical. Consider his predecessor Stepashin. The FSB Chief. Then Minister for Internal Affairs under Kirienko. Then the Prime Minister. It's a track very similar to Putin's except in the end the Tsar made a different choice. Poor Stepashin (on the right) Image
Read 21 tweets
Jun 17
Not wrong, but I'd reframe it. Yep, Russia is enforcing the "draconian capital controls". But "control" can't be a goal, it's only an instrument. For what?

Since the start of the war, Russian gov has been building the *two contour economy*. Let's discuss it briefly (not a 🧵)
When discussing the capital controls it's important to understand a broader sociopolitical structure of a country. Russian export revenue is primarily the raw materials export revenue. And thus the raw materials *exporters'* revenue. It's the revenue of few gigantic corporations
For comparison: take a glance at the Turkey's export structure for the same year (2017). The Turkish export is not just more complex, it's also way more diverse. The bulk of it is comprised by small and microscopic exporters. Who are more difficult to control than few giant corps
Read 7 tweets
Jun 15
What's happening with Russian economy?

Dynamics of Russian economy have been quite counterintuitive. Many, including myself expected the quick crash of the Russian currency. Indeed, usd/rub exchange rate initially skyrocketed. But since March 10 ruble started growing quickly🧵 Image
One could assume that the ruble price somehow correlated with Russian military successes. Indeed, Russians were advancing quickly. And still, less quickly than almost everyone had expected. Plus subsequent Russian retreat from the north in early April didn't stop the ruble rise
Much better and more obvious explanation would be: the price of the ruble dependent primarily on the trade balance rather than with what was happening on the Ukrainian battlefields. Strong ruble is a result of the trade surplus. And the Russian trade surplus skyrocketed in 2022 Image
Read 45 tweets
Jun 14
I generally agree, but I would add some nuances. For example, in my experience a major difference between Russians and Americans in is that Americans make so little difference between public and private spheres ethics-wise, whereas for Russians this difference is nearly absolute
As a general rule it is how you act in your private sphere that defines whether you are a good or bad person. How you act in public sphere is far less important. Also "honesty" would mean honesty in private rather than in public sphere. In private talk, not in public speech
After college I worked in a government organisation for a couple of months. My boss would sometimes walk into a cabinet where three of us were working to talk or give a monologue. Like: "How I came to the oppositional political views". That's private talk. It can be very honest
Read 10 tweets

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