Thread by @kamilkazani

Protests in Nukus, Karakalpakstan continue. Uzbek President Mirziyoyev already suggested not to amend the articles 70, 71, 72, 74, 75 of the constitution on the sovereignty and status of Karakalpakstan. But his forces are suppressing the protests. Emergency declared till August 2

International community should pressure Uzbek President Mirziyoyev to deescalate the situation. Karakalpak minority sees the entire "constitutional reform" project, especially regarding the Chapter XVII as highly provocative. That's a video from the yesterday's protests in Nukus

Keep in mind that Uzbekistan is:

1) Diverse
2) Young
3) Poor

Average age in Uzbekistan (29) is not much higher than in Syria (25). GDP per capita not much higher than in Cambodia. Most of territory is desert so almost everyone lives in a few overcrowded oases and river valleys

Uzbek government tries to picture the country more homogenous than it really is. For example they pretend that Khwarezmian language (Oghuz) is a dialect of Uzbek (Karluk) which is an obvious lie. Country is way more diverse & heterogenous than you may think looking at statistics

Young, poor and diverse population of Uzbekistan is very much affected by the rapid inflation. What is worse, previously the poor rural youth could travel to Russia to take some low paid manual jobs. That was a way for Uzbekistan to relieve its demographic pressure and earn cash

Many (myself included) feared that Russian-Ukrainian war would lead to explosion Central Asia. It was the imbecile move of president to grasp even more powers and reduce regional autonomy of Karakalpakstan that triggered the crisis. But it has more fundamental underlying reasons

I am very much concerned that Karakalpakstan may be only the starting point of a major Central Asian crisis. The next obvious point for explosion is Khorezm. Khorezm viloyet is located in oasis on the lower Amu Darya. By Uzbek standards it's very poor, rural and densely populated

It is also ethnically different. Uzbek government pretends Khwarezmians are Uzbeks but that is a lie. Uzbeks are Karluk, Khwarezmians are Oghuz. Uzbeks look down upon Khwarezmians and the latter resent that being being such an ancient culture they are ruled by alien Uzbeks

What is happening in Uzbekistan looks like the very beginning of the Syrian war. It can also trigger a general Central Asian crisis. All these countries are affected by pretty much the same socioeconomic factors and now can't send their excess rural youth to work to Russia

I think that the international community should pressure President Mirziyoyev to:

1. Stop the "constitutional reform". No amendments at all
2. Choose scapegoats among his own administration and police and jail them for massacring the protestors in Nukus. Make a show out of it

Political deescalation however won't solve the structural socioeconomic problems of Uzbekistan which are many. It's necessary to find employment for excessive rural youth, at home or abroad. So far South Korea has been a preferable alternative to Russia rferl.org/a/uzbekistans-…

Contrary to the popular perception, Uzbekistan has been developing fairly well. It showed some of the highest rates of industrial growth in the former USSR. But again, contrary to the popular perception, growing rapidly doesn't prevent you from spiralling into chaos and violence

President Mirziyoyev must be urged to stop the constitutional reform. He must be urged to appoint scapegoats for the massacre and jail them. That can deescalate it for now. But in the long run it's vital to find/create employment for the rural youth that now can't go to Russia

Labour contracts with South Korea or with other East Asian countries can be a very good idea. Cash transfers of labor migrants could keep the rural economy afloat, creating many jobs at home. That could allow Uzbekistan to survive through the current global recession

Finally, international community should help Tashkent to work out a more fair, decentralised and inclusive political system. The extreme dissatisfaction of many Khorezmians with the alien rule of Tashkent was obvious when you talked to them privately. The system must be reformed

PS While the political system of Uzbekistan is too centralised and unfair, underrepresenting the regions and minorities, in Turkmenistan it is *MUCH* worse than that. I don't know any other Central Asian country with so much potential for an internal war of extermination. The end