Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 5, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
It might be more accurate to describe Daudov (Lord) as the commander-in-chief (вице-премьер по силовому блоку)

Regarding his rhetorics the level of religious observance in Chechnya is vastly exaggerated. I'd even say that being really observant is a sign of nonnocformity there
The large mosque in the centre of Grozny is nearly empty with exception of Friday and religious holidays. Theoretically everyone is supposed to pray five times a day. Very few do that in reality. You might think they pray at home, but majority doesn't. It's certainly an exception
I find that most discussions about Chechnya amount to savagery-porn. Like some paint Chechens as "evil savages". Some as "noble" ones. But that's all projections, because they're neither. Not that much of traditional society or culture survived through the 20th century
Not much of economy either. When visiting Chechnya I was surprised how little subsistence farming and animal husbandry I saw. Much less than in some neighbouring regions. I asked about it:

"Yeah, twenty years ago we had it. Now every house has the Wifi and TikTok instead"
If you think that Chechnya is an oasis of some uninterrupted tradition whether good or bad one, you are wrong. Traditional society was thoroughly uprooted. Tribal system for example. Now yeah everyone knows which clan they belong to and you are weird if you don't. But that's it
Clans (teips) do not serve as real structures that can be use for armed mobilisation as it was in the 19th c. Thinking that Chechen clans act this way and tribal leaders can call their men to war is like thinking the modern Highland chiefs in Scotland have this power. They don't
Chechnya is not a traditional tribal society anymore and Kadyrov's regime is *not* tribal. It's also not that religious. Btw Chechnya never was especially religious. Religion was imposed there from North Dagestan. Which indeed is the centre of Islamic knowledge. Like Khasavyurt
"Traditional religious tribal Islamist that are gonna kill us all" it's largely savagery porn aimed at Westerners. And Chechen authorities play this card, cuz it works. They're wise enough to understand that Western journalists don't need any information. They need confirmation
I think that pretty much every non Westerner with half a brain already figured out how to build a stable partnership with Western media:

1. Identify their preconceptions (that's easy, they don't even try to hide them)
2. Confirm them all

This is the way
Kadyrov is smart enough to understand this and he purposefully target the Western media space - both institutional media and the social media. In March re shared a post by a TV host Kandelaki in his Telegram channel:
"Ramzan confidently entered the social media space and realised it is the modern battlefield. Elon Musk and Pavel Durov are responding to Ramzan. We are in one step from Biden himself starting to publicly react to Kadyrov's Telegram - a unique case in political technologies"
Chechnya lives in the same social media space as the West. It's really important there. And Kadyrov is craving for attention. See example here. Attention in Russia is good. But attention in the West would be much better. Elon Musk reacting to him is a big victory for example
Interviewers of the Harvard Project were aware of the power asymmetry between them and their Soviets respondents. They guide for interviewing stated that respondents "may distort their answers in order to tell Americans what they think Americans want to hear". Well, ofc they will Image
What modern journalists don't seem to understand that the same power asymmetry exists between them and the Putin's satrap in North Caucasus. He lives in the same social media space as them and works hard to build his image there. He'll go at great lengths to achieve that. The end

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More from @kamilkazani

Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
Hard to swallow pill

Global politics are usually framed in terms of kindergarten discourse (“good guys” vs “bad guys”) with an implication that you must provide “good guys” with boundless and unconditional support

BUT

Unconditional support is extremely corrupting, and turns the best of the best into the really nasty guys, and relatively fast
Part of the reason is that neither “bad” nor “good” guys are in fact homogenous, and present a spectrum of opinions and personalities. Which means that all of your designated “good guys” include a fair share of really, really nasty guys, almost by definition.

Purely good movements do not really exist
That is a major reason why limitless, unconditional, unquestioning support causes such a profound corrupting effect upon the very best movement. First, because that movement is not all
that purely good as you imagine (neither movement is),
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14
On Trump's birthday

Let's have a look at these four guys. Everything about them seems to be different. Religion. Ideology. Political regime. And yet, there is a common denominator uniting all:

Xi - 71 years old
Putin - 72 years old
Trump - 79 years old
Khamenei - 86 years old Image
Irrespectively of their political, ideological, religious and whatever differences, Russia, China, the United States, Iran are all governed by the old. Whatever regime, whatever government they have, it is the septuagenarians and octogenarians who have the final saying in it.
This fact is more consequential than it seems. To explain why, let me introduce the following idea:

Every society is a multiracial society, for every generation is a new race

Although we tend to imagine them as cohesive, all these countries are multigenerational -> multiracial
Read 7 tweets
Jun 7
In 1927, when Trotsky was being expelled from the Boslhevik Party, the atmosphere was very and very heated. One cavalry commander met Stalin at the stairs and threatened to cut off his ears. He even pretended he is unsheathing he sabre to proceed

Stalin shut up and said nothing
Like obviously, everyone around could see Stalin is super angry. But he still said nothing and did nothing

Which brings us to an important point:

Nobody becomes powerful accidentally
If Joseph Stalin seized the absolute control over the Communist Party, and the Soviet Union, the most plausible explanation is that Joseph Stalin is exercising some extremely rare virtues, that almost nobody on the planet Earth is capable of

Highly virtuous man, almost to the impossible level
Read 7 tweets
Jun 1
Growing up in Russia in the 1990s, I used to put America on a pedestal. It was not so much a conscious decision, as the admission of an objective fact of reality. It was the country of future, the country thinking about the future, and marching into the future. Image
And nothing reflected this better than the seething hatred it got from Russia, a country stuck in the past, whose imagination was fully preoccupied with the injuries of yesterday, and the phantasies of terrible revenge, usually in the form of nuclear strike. Image
Which, of course, projected weakness rather than strength

We will make a huuuuuuge bomb, and drop it onto your heads, and turn you into the radioactive dust, and you will die in agony, and we will be laughing and clapping our hands

An old man yelling at clouds Image
Read 9 tweets
May 2
Fake jobs are completely normal & totally natural. The reason is: nobody understands what is happening and most certainly does not understand why. Like people, including the upper management have some idea of what is happening in an organisation, and this idea is usually wrong.
As they do not know and cannot know causal relations between the input and output, they just try to increase some sort of input, in a hope for a better output, but they do not really know which input to increase.
Insiders with deep & specific knowledge, on the other hand, may have a more clear & definite idea of what is happening, and even certain, non zero degree of understanding of causal links between the input and output

(what kind of input produces this kind of output)
Read 6 tweets

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