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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Jul 6, 2022 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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FYI: Mulino is where German Rheinmetall company was building (in their own words):

"Measuring over 500 square kilometres, the state-of-the-art Russian army training centre in Mulino designed to train a reinforced mechanized infantry or armoured brigade"

rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall…
Mulino was modelled after the training center of Bundesehr in Altmarkt. In order to proceed with the construction, the Rheinmentall entered in the strategic partnership with Russian stated owned defence company Oboronservis Image
That was the high point of Serdyukov's reform. Serdyukov tried to modernise the Russian army importing ready solutions from the West: from the armaments to the tactics. And the Rheinmetall was more than ready to help to train the Russian troops Image
Rheinmetall planned to build "the most advanced system of its kind worldwide" and able to train 30 000 troops per year Image
There is strong evidence that Rheinmetall broke sanction regime. After 2014 it could not supply its equipment directly, because of the sanctions. According to the Russian Deputy Minister of Defence, after Rheinmetall it was the Russian "Garrison" company which finished the center Image
importgenius.com/russia/supplie…

Here we see the "Garrison" company as one of major purchasers from Rheinmetall Image
Some examples of shipments from 2019. Russian "Garnison" company was finishing the center (which Rheinmetall started) and it was buying equipment from Rheinmentall. Most probably, Garnison was just a proxy importgenius.com/russia/importe… ImageImage
Initially Rheinmetall built the Mulino center to "train a reinforced mechanized infantry or armoured brigade". And indeed, in 2020 the Russian Western Military District declared they'll make a "unique training center for tank forces" in Mulino

niann.ru/?id=557278 Image
Conclusion

1. Rheinmetall AG was building the infrastructure to train the Russian land army
2. There is indirect evidence of the Rheinmetall AG bypassing the sanctions through a Russian proxy company "Garnison" as late as in 2019
Lots of materials on the training center for the Russian army built in Mulino by the Rheinmetall AG are obviously deleted but fortunately their press release is still available on the company website

rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall…
Screenshots ImageImageImage
PS. If we look at where the Russian "Garnison" company which finished Mulino training center after the Rheinmetall was importing, we'll see that 100% of its imports are from Germany (Германия). With Rheinmetall being of course the main supplier. Russian company was just a proxy Image

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jul 1
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:

“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry

(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)

So, yes, living under the actual communism sucks
Read 5 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani’s victory

Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc

Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one Image
1. Public outrage does not work anymore

If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while

For a while, this tactics worked

Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
Read 8 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 28
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
Theory: X -> Y

Reality:

There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.

Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation

And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 26
Some thoughts on Zohran Mamdani's victory:

1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.

In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings

Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
Read 12 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 21
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.Image
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain

According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her Image
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.

Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important. Image
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jun 19
On the impending war with Iran

One thing you need to understand about wars is that very few engage into the long, protracted warfare on purpose. Almost every war of attrition was planned and designed as a short victorious blitzkrieg

And then everything went wrong
Consider the Russian war in Ukraine. It was not planned as a war. It was not thought of as a war. It was planned as a (swift!) regime change allowing to score a few points in the Russian domestic politics. And then everything went wrong
It would not be an exaggeration to say that planning a short victorious war optimised for the purposes of domestic politics is how you *usually* end up in a deadlock. That is the most common scenario of how it happens, practically speaking
Read 12 tweets

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