Analysts may be focusing too much on restricting the Russian fossil fuels export and too little on restricting the Russian import of:
1. industrial equipment
2. components
necessary to keep the Putin's war machine going. Most of it is probably coming from Europe, not from China
1. industrial equipment
2. components
necessary to keep the Putin's war machine going. Most of it is probably coming from Europe, not from China
Russian import dynamics suggest that import from China has actually *decreased* since the start of the Special Operation. In other words, individual Chinese companies might have avoided doing business with Russia to avoid repercussions. Those that remained boosted the prices
Meanwhile, the export from Turkey increased significantly. It is partially the Turkish production, including the foodstuff, etc. But much of it is probably the Western European technological export. In this case Turkey probably serves as a proxy and as a smuggling hub
Most of European technological smuggling to Russia is organised in a shockingly simple way. Exporters typically use very "dumb" schemes with only one single proxy. Like Rheinmetall AG sells equipment to the Garnison Ltd to build Mulino, where Russian invasion army was trained
Putin's military machine cannot do without European industrial equipment and components. Putin's rearmament was based on the direct technological import from the West. He tried to become more self-sufficient since 2011-2013, but failed. Import dependency is total
Some critical dependencies of the Russian military industrial complex from Western Europe:
1) Machine tools. Most importantly, German. But also Italian, Swiss, Austrian, Czech
2) Metal cutting instruments. Especially Swedish - for precision manufacturing, like nuclear warheads
1) Machine tools. Most importantly, German. But also Italian, Swiss, Austrian, Czech
2) Metal cutting instruments. Especially Swedish - for precision manufacturing, like nuclear warheads
3) CNC. Even "Russian" or Belarusian produced machine tools operate with German/Japanese CNCs, software and Swedish instruments. Especially Siemens/Fanuc
4) Spindles, ballscrews, bearings, etc.
5) Cutting fluids (mostly Germany)
That's necessary to keep the Russian army going
4) Spindles, ballscrews, bearings, etc.
5) Cutting fluids (mostly Germany)
That's necessary to keep the Russian army going
To stop Putin's military machine it's absolutely necessary to stop the technological import from Western Europe. Russian military plants cannot do without it. China can't substitute the loss of European suppliers
Official European export to Russian has been growing in late-spring - early summer forbes.ru/biznes/474301-… Unofficial grey schemes used to smuggle the forbidden equipment to Russia are usually very dumb and use one single proxy. Track them. The end
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