Thread by @kamilkazani

Here we have a problem:

Most analysts would dismiss a hypothesis that numerology plays a big role in Russian scheduling of key events (invasion, important political assassination, etc)

While it is almost certainly true.

Russia is run by state security. Who are not "rational"

https://twitter.com/sichnikopol/status/1562072475072184322

Let me get it straight. There are plenty of absolutely "rational" (Western-style) people in Russian bureaucracy. They're smart, they're following the recent Western intellectual fashion, mimic the language, the conceptual framework

But they're not rulers. They're servants

Russia has high ranked officials who would easily communicate with people on the US campuses and fit in well. *These people do not make decisions*. They follow orders, that's it. When hearing an order they consider dumb/counterproductive/dangerous, they just bow and execute it

People who actually have power and actually have a saying in key strategic decisions are nowhere near a Western analysts insanely narrow understanding of rationality. They're super rational and pragmatic. It's just that their type of rationality is way beyond his grasp

State security or organised crime are not that different in how they think and operate (in a sense organised crime is just a department of state security). They're super rational and pragmatic. That's why they're so superstitious. Their rationality is very archaic

I find it very plausible that the higher ups pre-scheduled a false flag operation specifically for August because of a superstition. Why? Because they see it as a "dangerous" month. If something critical happens, it's usually in August. They *really* unironically believe in it

I find it very plausible that fearing some bad events, some crisis happening in a "dangerous" month of August, they're artificially creating a crisis themselves. I'm not 100% how this worked in their brains this time. May be they decided to do a major escalation to *avoid* danger

Most probably, they killed Darya Dugina as a preparation for escalation. If you can't avoid a crisis, construct it yourself to keep control. Do not lose initiative. From DC analyst's perspective hat doesn't make much sense. But from the bandit/FSB perspective it absolutely does

There is also a chance they do not really plan for a rapid escalation, assuming that 1) sacrificing Darya Dugina 2) doing some casual bombings of Ukraine would be enough to shift any August danger from the country. I wish it was true, but I find it less probable, unfortunately

Any analyst familiar with *Russian* political analysis and discourse knows how common is the idea of August as a dangerous month. You may laugh over astrology and numerology but those with nukes absolutely do plan their policies based on these considerations. The end

If you unironically consider yourself a realist, you must put a special focus on studying the public imaginations of others'. Because this public imagination does guide their actions. And the idea of the August Curse does guide the actions of Kremlin

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_cu…