Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 24 11 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
François Guizot defined feudalism as perhaps the only form of tyranny that will be never accepted by the ruled. The theocratic despotism, the monarchic despotism can be genuinely loved and voluntarily accepted by their subjects. In contrast, the feudal despotism is always hated
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What makes the difference is that a monarch/theocrat does NOT act on his own behalf. To the contrary, he represents something larger, superior to himself. It may be God. It may be an idea. Anyway, he is only a representative of something bigger, making his rule more acceptable Image
Consider Stalin. He does NOT act on his own behalf. He is merely a representative of something bigger. It's not all about Stalin. It's not all focused on Stalin. There is a divine, super-human institution of which Stalin is only a temporary executive

That's how he borrows power Image
Submitting to your personal will is very much more digestible if you frame yourself as merely a representative of a superior idea. If you don't really act on your own behalf, then people don't really submit to you (= human), but to the Eternal idea

That sounds better, isn't it? Image
Paradoxically, to maximise legitimacy and minimise resistance to your personal tyranny, you need to always appeal to something bigger

(that you are only a representative of, as we remember)

If your narcissism is uncontrollable, you will never make it Image
Retrospectively, the weakest point of Trumpism was that it has all about Trump. A good salesman strategy, a horrible strategy for a politician

Make it all about yourself -> minimise legitimacy and maximise the opposition

If Stalin didn't make it all about himself, why do you? Image
Trumpism might have benefitted from shifting the focus of attention away from Trump to:

1. The Eternal Idea (that he is merely a representative of)
2. The Great Predecessors (of which he is a reverent disciple)
3. Literally anything else except for his personality
What makes the difference between an acceptable and an unacceptable power is that the former is mystified. If a person in power frames himself as a representative of something bigger, it does not feel like an execution of his personal capricious power. It is usually bearable
And vice versa, nothing increases opposition as much as the open exercise of a capricious personal power. If you aim to maximise resistance, you must emphasise the arbitrary, whimsical manner of your decision making. Make it clear you are acting purely on your personal whim
To summarise

1. Submitting to an idea or principle is more or less bearable to most
2. Submitting to another human is almost always unbearable

People will tolerate almost any tyranny if the element of submitting to another human's capricious will is disguised well enough
That is why any reasonable power will go at great length to disguise this element from the ruled. In contrast, the power that emphasises it is just unreasonable, not to say suicidal. It is unlikely to continue for long

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More from @kamilkazani

Aug 23
Prigozhin was a junior member of the St Petersburg gang. A vassal of Putin's vassal. Still, a rightful member of the gang that constitutes the core of the ruling elite. Consequently, his death will make an impression of the regime killing its previously untouchable core members
If the regime has indeed killed one of its core members, then the St Petersburg gang is probably not as united as it seemed to be. The death of Prigozhin reflects the depth of divisions in the narrow circle of upper elite.

This is the impression it makes on the outsiders
Even worse, this raises a question of how secure the other members of the gang should feel. In particular, how much of their previous untouchability will remain
Read 7 tweets
Aug 16
Daily reminder

1. Complex weapons such as the WMD/delivery systems include precise parts

2. Production of precise parts relies on subtractive processes

3. Which had overwhelmingly relied on the manual control even in 1991

4. But have been radically computerized since then
5. As the production of precise parts switched from the manual to computer control, the labor capable of producing precise parts (-> weaponry) manually was lost

6. The tactic knowledge has been lost, too

7. Which cements transition and makes it absolutely and 100% irreversible
8. No military industrial complex in the world can produce precise parts at a consistent quality other than based on the computer control

9. That includes every military industry including Russia, China, N. Korea, Iran

10. Iran may be the only one who even tries to obfuscate it
Read 20 tweets
Jul 23
Starting from today, I will be publishing selected threads in my newsletter. I will start with three
Why Russia will lose this war?

kamilkazani.substack.com/p/why-russia-w…
Kadyrov Kingdom: What you should know about Chechnya?

(this one is more on historical factors that shaped Chechnya as it is, starting with the Columbian exchange)

kamilkazani.substack.com/p/kadyrov-king…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16
This is a very common mistake

“They” who “know better” do not exist as a coherent group. There’s no “them”

If I were to name the most underrated force in the world, I would choose the information asymmetry. We systematically and semis-consciously underestimate how great it is https://t.co/bRt4mSEHxH
Image
Consequently, the line of argumentation:

“They can’t do something so obviously stupid/irrational”

Is usually wrong. They absolutely can. Why?

Because it is NOT obvious. You mistakenly think it is obvious because you ignore the elephant in the room - the information asymmetry Image
Which is more often than not a particular case of the worldview asymmetry and the asymmetry of conceptual frameworks. An even bigger elephant in the room

But that is for another day Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 15
Soviet military doctrine was shaped by the WWII experience

Russian military doctrine was shaped by the Gulf War impression

The former felt the need to build a strong land army. The latter felt no need to. Very large missile forces + small expeditionary corps was deemed enough
The Russian military doctrine was built upon assumption that a small expeditionary corps will be enough to crush any rival on the post-Soviet space. Meanwhile, large missile forces will disincentivize external players from interfering

Strategic missiles were heavily prioritised
As a result, the Russian army was heavily lopsided. Very strong missiles, very weak land army. The former would compensate for the weakness of the latter

(Russian army, 1997 - till now. Unknown author) Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 14
Of course Switzerland is a giant. The industry is based upon:

1. Mature mechanical engineering
2. Innovative digital control technology
3. Continuous tradition of craftsmanship

You may try to develop (1) and (2). But you cannot acquire (3) anytime soon. That is just impossible
Much of what is usually referred to as "expertise" (believe the experts) is just infallibility ex cathedra ideology. It is based on a social convention and not on the objective reality. In contrast, the craftsman expertise is real, very difficult to pick and impossible to fake
One of the most destructive effects of the post-Soviet collapse on the Russian military production was the loss of craftsmanship -> tacit knowledge. Sometimes you can reverse engineer the technology later. Sometimes you can't. Anyway, much of it has been lost irreversibly
Read 4 tweets

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