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I think that a military conflict between China and the US is highly probable. I also think that China will lose it. While the US hard power (& the quality of strategic thinking) may have substantially deteriorated since 1991, China:
1. Is much weaker
2. Won't catch up
1. Is much weaker
2. Won't catch up
https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1703831797614661853
China is overall much more backward in terms of technology & manufacturing than almost anyone in the US foreign policy establishment is ready to admit. Beijing knows it, DC doesn't
Which, again, shows how much did the American strategic thinking deteriorate since 1991
Which, again, shows how much did the American strategic thinking deteriorate since 1991
PS I believe that the end of the Cold War had a corrupting effect on the US strategists. With the real and credible threat gone, too many started exaggerating (or making up?) BS threats. Consequently, the skills and competences for dealing with a real threat have atrophied
After decades of obsessing about BS threats such as guerillas far away, they will have to face a real threat: an organised state of roughly comparable resources and capacities
Meanwhile, competences for even properly understanding an actual, non-BS threat have largely atrophied
Meanwhile, competences for even properly understanding an actual, non-BS threat have largely atrophied
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