"Western machinery is used to build Russian missiles" is not wrong. It's just lacks the context. And the context is:
Computerisation affected metalworking processes unevenly. Machining was so deeply revolutionised, that most of the Soviet conventional base became *useless*
It was absolutely necessary to replace the obsolete Soviet conventional equipment with the imported computerised machines. Starting from 2003, Putin replaced Soviet machines with the automated equipment from the U.S allies
That's how he revived the Russian military production
Forging and pressing were less affected by the implementation of digital control. Consequently, there was often no need to replace the existing equipment
In 2021, the ICBM producer Votkinsk still operated this screwdriver press built in 1915
That's where they build "Yars" btw
This asymmetry in the pace of technological progress is of central importance for understanding the Russian import dependency
1. Machining was fully revolutionised 2. Forging, pressing - no
Therefore, Putin has replaced (1) with modern imported equipment from the U.S. allies
Now machining is the key production process necessary for producing precise parts -> of primary importance for producing any sophisticated weaponry
This is *the* chokepoint*
Also metal sheet fabrication & galvanics
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There's more plants than herbivores, more herbivores than carnivores etc. The lower trophic levels weigh more. And "more" means few orders of magnitude more
Perhaps, we need to introduce an idea of a technology chain pyramid 🧵
Consumer goods would constitute the lowest trophic level. Which means, the largest level by far. There's just way more of them compared all the upper levels combined
This is also the only level of the technology chain visible to the general audience
"Everything produced in China" means "everything I buy is produced in China". And everything I buy means consumer goods
1. We see only the lowest trophic level of the technology chain 2. We notice it is dominated by the Chinese production 3. Voila, China produces everything
It is very important to understand that the market of machine components is significantly more concentrated than the market of machines. The latter tends to be dominated by small to medium producers. The formers tend to be monopolistic
There are very few suppliers
Target them
The American contempt to Europe is performative and exaggerated. If you are looking for the quality, military industry grade hardware, the European capacities and capabilities are absolutely unmatched
With the singular exception of Japan, no one in the world stands even close
Honestly, of all the made up outrages in recent memory this one seems to be the most made up by far
One could have cherrypicked enough "evidence" to make an equally sound "argument" for an octopus being a philosemitic meme. Here for example an octopus represents the antisemitic conspiracy to be battled with (referring to the Dreyfus affair)
Передайте господину Ермаку, что ружья кирпичом не чистят. Ни отследить, ни перекрыть поставки consumer electronics невозможно. Потрошить ракеты в поисках потребительских чипов хорошо для поднятия моральной паники, но с т.з. санкционной политики - это все имитация деятельности
Российский ВПК массово использует *потребительскую* электронику в качестве компонентов вооружения. Так вот особенность потребительской электроники в том, что ее МНОГО. На порядки и порядки больше, чем чисто военной. Она не может являться узким местом
Этот канал не перекрыть
Ключевая особенность узкого места в том, что оно - узкое. А потому эффективная санкционная политика должна таргетировать НЕБОЛЬШИЕ рынки. Такие, например, как рынки промышленного оборудования:
Механообработка (это маст)
Гальваника
Термообработка
и т.д.
On a sunny spring day of 2022 someone transferred me 10 Ethereums. That was a lot of money. With this money I could do something big
So, I decided to do something interesting 🧵
Not long before that, I wandered into an article «Germany and Czechia help Russia to build ballistic missiles Sarmat and Sineva with the nuclear warheads» (2017). A case study on the Krasmash missile producing plant, it posed some questions that analysts seldom ask:
🤔
What was the article about?
The Krasnoyarsk Machine Building Plant (Krasmash) is one of two key intercontinental ballistic missile manufacturers in Russia. Krasmash produces and maintains the liquid-propellant missiles such as the ICBM Sarmat and SLBM Bulava