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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Dec 3 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Backed by the manufacturing power of Europe, Putin may very well win this war. The Russian machining park consists of Western (mostly EU πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί) tools imported in 2003-2023. With spare parts flow & tech support uninterrupted, Russia gonna steamroll over Ukraine as planned πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸš€πŸ’ͺ
Image
Ballistic missile producers continue to receive all the necessary supplies and maintenance

(You may go through this thread to get a first impression of how the Russian military manufacturing base looks like, on example of Votkinsk Plant)

Launch systems producers, too

(Titan-Barrikady)

The output of weaponry is a great predictor of victory in a prolonged symmetric war. And the longer the war lasts, the better it becomes as a predictor

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Dec 2
1. Russia makes more weaponry than its enemies. If nothing is done about its military production, Russia will win this war

2. Establishing the new political rule:

Always bet against the US allies

3. With the absolutely destructive effect on the US policy and standing in Asia
4. The Russian victory in Ukraine will radically devalue the worth of the US alliance in the eyes of the world

5. Yes, America lost asymmetric wars before. But this is the first time, it will be defeated in the symmetric warfare

6. Its standing will be adjusted accordingly
7. Yes, never bet against the US rule will stand for a while (don't declare the war, don't attack the US soil)

8. But now it will be supplemented with always bet against the US allies

9. Promises, guarantees and commitments are not worth much. America is weak -> backs off easily
Read 24 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 14
1. Russian-Ukrainian war is mostly an artillery war

2. Russian artillery production fully relies upon a few dozen GFM Steyr (Austria) radial forging machines

3. Which rely upon the continuous supply of expendables from the original producer

It is *the* bottleneck. Target it
The funny thing with the GFM Steyr is that it is not even a large business. In 2021, its revenue was estimated at only 32,5 million euros. In 2022, it rose to 69,8 million (for obvious reasons). Yet, the Russian artillery industry is critically dependent upon this single company
First, the existing park of GFM Steyr machines requires a steady supply of parts and expendables to keep them running. Consider this one single SXP-55 radial forging machine operating at the Motovilikha Plants, a major artillery & MLRS producer
Read 9 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 4
There was never an "Islamic State of the Mamluks of Egypt". You just made it up

First, there was a Turkic State of the Turkic Mamluks

Then, there was a Circassian State of the Circassian Mamluks

In 1517, the King of Rome smashed Circassians and annexed Egypt into his empire
13-14th cc. - the Turkic State
14-16th cc. - the Circassian State
1517 - the Roman Conquest

Neither political realities, nor the political imagination of pre-modern polities had anything to do with an idea of nation state. Which was not even a thing before the French Revolution
Pre-history of pretty much any nation state is fictitious and largely made up. We describe very bizarre (from a modern standpoint) political orders and imaginations in a way they would make for a teleological nation state narrative

Purely political, nothing to do with reality
Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 2
75 years since the first partition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not over. Based on the last four weeks , we can only expect it to escalate, resulting in more mutual dehumanisation, more reciprocal violence, more of the previously uninvolved joining it on either side 🧡 Image
What kind of conflict it is?

Contrary to the popular opinion, this is not a war of religion. Religious or eschatological interpretations too often obfuscate the underlying reason of why it all happens

Territory

This is and has always been a territorial conflict Image
You will not understand dynamics of either the Arab-Jewish or Muslim-Jewish relations without realising the territorial nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Territorial conflict generates ideological justifications

Land is the base, ideology is the superstructure Image
Read 17 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Nov 1
Loved this @LindseyGrahamSC interview

It shows why and how a Just War is logically equivalent to the Total War

1. As we fight a just war
2. Against the total evil
3. The war must have no limits, nor boundaries

It must be necessarily total, until the full annihilation
Image
Now, how often do we fight a Just War?

We always do

(as no side ever will say it fights an unjust one)

Consequently, neither of our wars can have limits or boundaries. The Just War argument logically excludes a possibility of limiting the war-related violence Image
And vice versa, if we wage a total war of the unlimited violence, the enemy must be also total, absolute

That is a Nazi

Consequently, mass indiscriminate killing of civilians will be almost invariably justified with the WWII references & allusions

Read 4 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Oct 30
For context:

In the Russian Empire, Jews were not normally allowed to live east of the Pale of Settlement (red). While few privileged categories like rich merchants were allowed to settle in Russia proper, the absolute majority was locked to Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Lithuania
This however, applied only to the Western, Ashkenazi Jews

Bukhara Jews of modern Uzbekistan, Karaites of Crimea or foreign "Oriental" Jews were free from such limitations and could settle anywhere

Many Ashkenazi bought Ottoman passports specifically for this purpose Image
"My father was a Turkish subject and, therefore, I am a descendant of Janissaries. Who spared neither women, nor children, nor the underground millionaires"

has different meaning than it seems. It refers to the practice of buying the Ottoman passports for freedom of travel Image
Read 6 tweets

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