Thread by @kamilkazani

1. The old diverse, fuzzy & heterogenous world of realms, lordships and city states does not translate into the homogenous nation states very well

2. That is why nation states resort to ethnic cleanings of wrong population, destruction of wrong cultural heritage etc so often

https://twitter.com/presidentaz/status/1746075298863456373

3. As fuzzy ethnic reality of the past does not really translate into the nation state world, so don’t the old “fuzzy” borders

4. Most national borders are very arbitrary. As they don’t reflect reality of the past (they can’t), there is always a temptation to renegotiate them

5. And that is exactly what Armenia did in the 1990s. It tried to renegotiate the internationally recognized border by force (because history). Despite the initial success, this turned into an absolute catastrophe for Armenia

Retrospectively, it was a huge & irreparable mistake

6. This is partially because the entire system of rules is skewed against those trying to renegotiate the borders. Territorial conquests are almost impossible to exploit, or legalize. Net liability. And as Armenia shows they are very easy to lose once the tide changes

7. If Azerbaijan tries to renegotiate the internationally recognized border by force (because history), it will repeat the same mistake Armenia did. The conquest will be very hard to hold, impossible to legalize and super easy to lose once the tide changes

8. It is impossible to base a stable border on “history” (= arbitrary selection of one’s side favorite facts). What you can base a stable border upon is reality

9. Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia do really derive from the ancient or medieval polities they associated with

10. In reality, they derive from the administrative units of the USSR. Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic and Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, slightly rebranded

Connection with the distant past is mostly imaginary

11. The old administrative border of the USSR is the only solid & objective principle for drawing the border between what is essentially two Soviet provinces slightly rebranded

Anything else will lead to a long bloody mess with no clear winner

12. Fuzzy borders between the ancient polities don’t translate into the national borders very well. But the uninspiring administrative borders between the recent provinces do. The former are largely based on our imagination and the latter on reality