“Prices for rail transportation of containers from Central Russia to the east increased sharply in March, Kommersant learned. Including the cost of transportation from Moscow to Irkutsk in a month rose from 25,000 to 200,000 rubles.”
If you read through the above linked seaport thread and its related material, you will notice that it’s worth paying attention to what Russia is doing with its logistics.
(My gut says to watch this closely)
“Tariffs for sending cargo to Krasnoyarsk in a 40-foot container increased from 5,000-7,000 rubles in February to 160,000-180,000 rubles in March.”
BTC trade from 51k to 64k. Will focus purely on the BTCUSD side of things, though hopefully it will explain why I thought the BITO options were good as well.
First, focus on the big picture:
- Historically when BTC gets going it can easily put in 7 green days in a row. Studying prior bull markets, and even the moves in 2019 make this very clear. Furthermore BTC tight supply and cult-like/viral nature (don't mean this in a bad way) make it extremely reflexive.
- Very clear uptrend since start of 2023. Clear but not clean. Plenty of undercuts and reclaims within the uptrend. This part of the uptrend peaked with a 10/10 sell the news trade off the ETF news.
- The sell the news setup had a very real potential to mark the medium term top for BTCUSD. The first sign that it might not be was the fake breakdown below 40k, which almost immediately reclaimed. In this case it wasn't enough to get me long, but definitely a spot to consider it. If I had a strong bigger picture bias I would definitely get long here.
- Next the 44k breakout is of extreme importance for two reasons. (1) It represents a pivot where the "sell the news" has been completely negated. (2) There was a substantial change of character in the price action - the personality of price behavior had changed. I alluded to this on a post (linked in first reply).
Trade planning/thoughts:
- This trade would have been substantially easier and bigger if I hadn't sold my initial long from 45k. Paraphrasing reminiscences "I lost my position". This started to become incredibly obvious when I wanted to rebuy on a 50k flush and it could only retrace 2k after a 10k move and 9 green days. Roughly here I realized my mistake about selling.
- My expectation from recognizing the change in character of price action is that there was a substantial chance of a return to price characteristics from previous bull markets.
- This price action is the exact type of price action that favors pyramiding. In this case I decided that because my "trade idea" was A grade, I was going to take every C grade setup with small size, trailing the old stops as required to keep risk in check and essentially disable the sell button.
Actual trades: This is from memory because Bybits historical execution charts are crappy and I cbf digging through my trades, and cancelled orders (stops) won't show.
- First pic is daily chart just for reference, you can see the shallow pullback forming an absurdly tight flag around 52k, this is something that is screaming to be long.
- Second pic. I felt that the pullback on the 21st Feb below the previous wick low of the flag had shaken a few weak hands, so even though I preferred to get long sub 50k I felt it was time to start actively looking.
- Third pic. Due to mentioned reasons I was looking for any excuse to get long. The pullback from 51500 to 51200 was caused by announcement Saylor had bought more. Historically it has been a good short, so when it reclaimed his selloff point I knew I wanted to be long. Got long 25BTC 51500, stop 51200, risking around $8k. Due to the sharp reaction and 52k being a minor level I added 10BTC through 52k with a 52600 stop, so total risk rose to approx 12k. For frame of reference I might risk anywhere from $20k-$100k on something I consider truly exceptional, so not there yet, and I never got there.
- 4th pic. 53k was the true trigger for the breakout of the flag so I added another 10BTC there with a $500 stop. Rest of stop was trailed fairly substantially here. If this trade is going to work, I don't want it to fail here. Iirc I think I went half at 52344, half at 51944.
- Added 10BTC on the lower timeframe flag break at 53600, stop 53200. This one in particular was well worth it due to the proximity to original true breakout. A classic continuation setup within a strong breakout. The rest were very C grade lol.
- Took the lower timeframe continuation setup through 55k 5BTC at 55k, then another 5BTC at 55500. Stop on this was 54500 and 54800.
- 4th pic. Took the continuation setup through 57000 for 5BTC and got stopped on the wick through 56500. Then eventually took it again through 57500.
- Shoutout to @Valckrie for slamming the table on the parabolic as I was fairly biased and was afraid of losing my position again, sold 1/2 on the failure at 64k. Perps got above spot, exchanges failing. It was a very clear signal.
Notes on pyramiding: I know this is something everyone is interested in.
- @tradingpepefrog comments on pyramiding in reply. Some great points.
- I need to be clear. This was a unique situation that I felt called for it. You try this too often and you will absolute destroy your consistency and profitability. You can clearly see how degenerate this looks right? I could have easily round trip a tonne of pnl at any point here.
- I felt it called for it due to the reflexive nature and strong read I had on price action. Pyramiding works well when reinforce the validity of your original thesis. By definition these continuation setups couldn't occur if I hadn't been right on my initial trade.
- Other examples include a stock at the lows where you suspect heavy dilution - being at lows increases probability your idea is right. SMCI recently, you might short through vwap, and your original idea is more likely to be right if it trades through the lod, and then through g/r.
- Options often work well to express a trade that calls for pyramiding due to how price action usually gets modelled by the MM, the nature of how gamma works means you are naturally adding to a winner. And the MM has likely underpriced the gamma risk.
- It works best where you have clear momentum triggers that should never be revisited.
‼️ Russian Railway Update:
(You might want to bookmark this)
Buckle in, because it’s really bad news. It is really important that you read the build up to this bad news for you to REALLY appreciate how bad it is.
Pease make sure read this👇 and ALL of the linked threads
Especially this one. Read ALL OF IT. It’s long. Don’t worry, it’s not hard reading. I make it really simple to understand. You can see Russia make a lot of bad choices.
Remember, you can bookmark these things and read them when you have time.
Research conducted by the food for the brain charity that's got a range of the world's leading scientific experts including Professor David Smith who led Oxford University Pharmacology Dept.
Well, in the 3rd century, the Roman Empire began to buckle under the weight of state spending.
It frantically "printed" money until things went horribly wrong... (thread) 🧵
When Augustus slowed the expansion of the empire, wealth stopped flowing from conquered lands into the treasury. Managing expenditures (construction, armies, bureaucracy) became increasingly difficult.
Whenever costs exceeded tax income, emperors minted new coins to cover it. Mining precious metals increased the supply of gold and silver coinage.
Things remained pretty stable for two centuries...
Today Google announced groundbreaking new AI technology at Google IO.
The 10 most incredible examples:
1. Veo, a powerful AI video generator.
The text-to-video generator lets filmmakers write prompts to build cinematic shots.
2. Google will integrate AI natively in search.
You can ask whatever’s on your mind or whatever you need to get done — from researching to planning to brainstorming — and Google will take care of the legwork.
Tem muita fake por aí dizendo que o Governo @LulaOficial não tem feito nada para ajudar o Rio Grande do Sul...
Então fiz esse fio com TODAS AS MEDIDAS anunciadas pelo @govbr para reconstruir as cidades afetadas e ajudar as famílias desabrigadas.
Compartilhe! 👇
📌 CRÉDITO DE R$ 12 BILHÕES!
Medida Provisória abriu crédito extraordinário de R$ 12,1 bilhões para que diversos órgãos federais mantenham as ações necessárias no atendimento aos municípios. Estão contempladas reposição de medicamentos perdidos nas enchentes, garantia de atendimento nos postos de saúde e hospitais, reconstrução de infraestrutura rodoviária, ações de Defesa Civil e atendimentos emergenciais executados pela Polícia Federal, Polícia Rodoviária Federal e Força Nacional.
📌 SAÚDE: R$ 861 milhões
Liberação de mais R$ 861 milhões para apoio e assistência. O recurso servirá para reposição de medicamentos perdidos nas enchentes, garantia do atendimento nos postos de saúde e hospitais e para as atividades de saúde digital.
On February 23rd, 1744 - Mayer Amschel Bauer, a Jew-ish Khazar, is born in Frankfurt, Germany, the son of Moses Amschel Bauer, a money lender and the proprietor of a counting house.
Moses Amschel Bauer places a red sign above the entrance door to his counting house. This sign is a red hexagram (that geometrically and numerically translates into the number 666), which under Rothschild instruction will end up on the Israeli flag some two centuries later.
2.
1770 -
Mayer Amschel Rothschild draws up plans for the creation of the #Illuminati, a Luciferian term which means “keepers of the light”, and entrusts Jew-ish Khazionist, #AdamWeishaupt, to develop and organize the secret group's structure. Weishaupt himself poses as a Roman #Catholic, aka: crypto-jew.
the IIluminati is to be based upon the teachings of the #Talmud, the teachings of insane Jew-ish Khazionists.
3.
1776
Adam #Weishaupt officially completes his creation of the Illuminati on May 1st of this year. The purpose of the Illuminati is to infiltrate all societies & nations practicing one of the 3 Abrahamic religions through political, economic, social, and religious obfuscation & subversion. The plan is for the opposing sides of the goyim (non-khazionists) to be armed whilst incidents are to be provided in order for them to fight amongst themselves; destroy national governments; destroy religious institutions; and eventually destroy each other.
Weishaupt soon infiltrates the Continental Order of #Freemasons with the Illuminati doctrine and establishes lodges of the #GrandOrient to be their secret headquarters. This is all under the orders and finance of Mayer Amschel Rothschild and the concept subsequently spreads into #Masonic Lodges worldwide to the present day.
Earlier this year my wife decided to watch Law and Order: SVU from the beginning. It began in 1999.
The show tries to stay topical with the news. Some observations.
1. In the early episodes the cops are portrayed as very hard-bitten. Every episode they threaten shop owners with the IRS, rough people up, and generally talk in a way the writers obviously associated with working class New Yorkers.
By 2006 or so this is mostly done with.
2. There is an extremely noticeable shift around 2017-18 where all of the characters shift towards woker viewpoints and plot topics focus on the things like the problems ICE causes for the SVU detectives. What had been maybe a gradual tilt leftwards becomes a drastic lurch.
I did this thread on critical constructivism (the right name for "Woke") last night, and I'm grateful it has received over half a million views so far. One thing I didn't detail is how hostile to science critical constructivism is. The sciences weren't ready for its attack.
I don't think any of us are under particular illusions (except the Very Smart People, maybe) that science is being attacked by Woke very successfully, but I suspect most people don't have any idea how it works conceptually or practically. We should talk about these factors.
For those interested in or concerned about this, or really if you're anyone at all, I strongly recommend this four-part podcast series I did about the conquering and retooling of the university, particularly the sciences, by what amounts to this ideology. newdiscourses.com/2022/10/strang…
One of the important events in the history of India, is the founding of Vijayanagara Empire by the brothers Harihara and Bukkaraya, on the advice of Vidyaranya Swami in 1336 AD.
While there are different theories on the origin of the brothers, what is clear is that these brothers laid the foundation for one of the greatest Hindu empires ever.
The Vijayanagara Empire was founded at a very critical point in our history. The Muslim invasions that had devastated most of the North, had now swept into the Deccan and South, as the existing kingdoms like Hoysalas, Kakatiyas, Yadavas collapsed, while further South Madurai faced the brunt of the invasions.
. It was around this time, that the Vijayanagar Empire emerged. For over 250 years, Vijayanagara Empire acted as a defense in the South against the Muslim invasions that ravaged the Northern parts of India. It protected the Hindu dharma and kingdoms in South, it preserved the culture, the temples, and acted like a solid wall, against the Muslim invaders.
Nei miei anni verdi (verdi in tutti i sensi), ero un convinto pacifista, antimilitarista e nonviolento. Andavo alle manifestazioni e alle marce, assistevo a conferenze. Studiavo la e mi esercitavo alla DPN (Difesa Popolare Nonviolenta). 1/n
Mi dichiarai obiettore di coscienza al servizio militare (e fui per questo convocato un giorno in caserma dai carabinieri) e svolsi il servizio civile.
Mi affascinava l’idea della nonviolenza come pratica il cui scopo non era evitare i conflitti,
2/n
ma il prendere atto della loro esistenza e “trasformarli”. Da questo punto di vista era il contrario del concetto di appeasement.
Con gli anni ho preso atto di realtà dolorose ma evidenti: che la non collaborazione gandhiana non ferma i missili, 3/n
🧵Shocking reality of the Brexit inland border checks at Sevington, 22 miles from Dover.
The experience and facilities seem designed to be as intimidating, dehumanising and unpleasant as possible.
(Ciaran gave me permission to use his tweets.)
1/8
Nothing's there to keep actual humans in even the most basic comfort.
No food facilities. No drinks. Just a tap in the toilet.
This is a French company, by the way. No British one seemed prepared to do the cruelty bit cheaply enough for the Tories to choose them instead.
2/8
After a wait which can be 5-6 hours or more, you're locked even more tightly away, and inspected in sullen silence by people treating you like you're a criminal.
Even though you've done nothing wrong, you're made to feel as though you have.
2/. From the start of the pandemic the govt had given #Palantir, a US spyware company with reported links to #CambridgeAnalytica, access to NHS health data
3/. Palantir worked on the NHS data store with #FacultyAI - a company with ties to Cummings
In 2020, @amnesty warned that Big Tech firms might use the COVID crisis to hoover up genomic data, obliterating the last frontier of privacy: our biological selves
The arrest of Timur Ivanov turned out to be only the beginning of a purge in the Russian leadership. The head of the Main Personnel Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Yuri Kuznetsov, was arrested on charges of corruption. Kuznetsov was
1/15
previously the head of the Eighth Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. This unit is responsible for protecting state secrets. So this could eventually become a high-profile treason case. Everything points to an internal crisis and Putin’s attempts to
2/15
correct the situation. A real internal struggle began. Putin is purging the team of Shoigu and others. In theory, cleansing should be beneficial. The fight against corruption in the West is always good and necessary. But we are talking about Russia. The fact is that in the
3/15
1. The small number of detransitioner I have met do not come to support groups but they do call helplines, & have been very vocal, with no qualms about speaking to me directly. at conferences (academic & other), & public events eg Trade Union & public lectures
1/6 It appears that Ukraine's efforts to pressure the US into permitting them to strike russian territory are finally starting to yield results. Take by @joni_askola
2/6 Ukrainians are intensifying their efforts to persuade the Biden administration to lift the ban on using U.S.-made weapons for strikes inside russia. They argue that this policy prevented them from targeting russian positions as they readied for their advance toward Kharkiv.
3/6 The US has established a form of defense shield for russian troops on the russian side, and this seems entirely illogical. Fortunately, Ukraine possesses its own defense industry, and a handful of other countries permit Ukraine to carry out strikes on russian territory.