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ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: https://t.co/FO1PVyOnYB
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May 4 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Ukrainian officials continue to highlight that Russia’s main goal for 2024 remains the seizure of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation. (🧵1/7)Image
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2/ UKR Ground Forces Commander LTG Oleksandr Pavlyuk reiterated in a May 3 interview w/The Times that Russia’s offensive goals in 2024 are to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and that RU forces may attempt to seize the rest of Zaporizhia Oblast in 2024 if they seize the Donbas.
May 3 5 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 2. Geolocated footage published on May 2 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Ocheretyne and south of Pervomaiske. (1/4)Image 2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced 3.85 kilometers wide and two kilometers deep into central Arkhanhelske (northeast of Ocheretyne and north of Avdiivka) from Ocheretyne and Keramik (north of Avdiivka).
May 3 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Ukrainian and US officials issued assessments consistent with prior ISW forecasts that Russian forces may take Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast but are very unlikely to seize major Ukrainian cities. (1/2)Image
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2/ Ukrainian intelligence officials also identified three Russian efforts to destabilize Ukraine and achieve victory.

Details in the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for May 2, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar050224



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May 2 5 tweets 2 min read
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast for the second time in less than a month on the night of April 30 to May 1.

Additional key takeaways ⬇️(1/5)
Image 2/ Russian state-run news outlets appear to be amplifying anti-Western rhetoric from former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and are negatively portraying Georgians protesting against Georgia’s “foreign agents” bill, likely in an attempt to destabilize and divide Georgia.
May 1 4 tweets 2 min read
Geolocated footage published on April 29 indicates that Russian forces advanced up to the east side of the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar in an area where the canal flows underground. (1/4)Image
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2/ A Ukrainian reconnaissance platoon commander operating in the Chasiv Yar area reported on April 30 that Russian special operations forces (SSO) have started to operate more frequently at night...
Apr 30 8 tweets 3 min read
The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory. 🧵(1/8)
Image 2/ @FT reported on April 29 that Baltic ministers are warning that Russia is behind recent cases of GPS jamming that have interfered with commercial navigation signals and forced two Finnair flights to turn back in the middle of flights from Helsinki to Tartu in the past week.
Apr 29 4 tweets 2 min read
The continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar. (1/4)Image 2/ Ukrainian officials have previously identified Pokrovsk as the Russian operational objective in the Avdiivka direction, and Syrskyi reiterated this assessment on April 28. Image
Apr 29 10 tweets 3 min read
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. 🧵
Image 2/ Syrskyi acknowledged that Russian forces are making tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have deployed up to four brigades to their tactical penetration in the Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) area.
Apr 29 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Recent Russian gains NW of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions west of Avdiivka. These withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains & don't portend an operationally significant penetration in the near term. 🧵Image 2/ Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. Image
Apr 28 6 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces are continuing to exploit a tactical penetration north and northwest of Avdiivka and recently made additional confirmed advances in the area. 🧵(1/6)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 27 shows that Russian forces advanced to northern Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces completely seized the settlement on April 27.
Apr 28 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russia will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but Russian forces remain unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. 🧵Image
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2/ The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations...
Apr 26 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. (🧵1/8)Image
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2/ Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as Pres. Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
Apr 26 8 tweets 2 min read
Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances. 🧵(1/8)

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2/ Russian forces in the Avdiivka area remain roughly 30 kilometers from their reported operational objective of Pokrovsk and roughly 17 kilometers from relatively large villages east of Pokrovsk.
Apr 26 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced into central Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) from Novobakhmutivka after likely seizing all of Novobakhmutivka on the night of April 24 to 25. Image
Apr 25 5 tweets 2 min read
The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas. 🧵(1/5)
Image 2/ US officials told Western media that the United States will include additional long-range ATACMS missiles as part of the announced $1 billion tranche of security assistance for Ukraine.
Apr 25 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW: US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.🧵(1/5)Image
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2/ Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations east of Chasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in an effort to take advantage of the limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
Apr 24 4 tweets 2 min read
Additional key takeaways:

The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran. (1/4)
Image 2/ United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest-ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.
Apr 24 9 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. (1/9)Image
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2/ Shoigu is likely trying to broadly depict the various ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine as equally successful despite mixed and limited tactical Russian success in these directions.
Apr 23 9 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline. 🧵(1/9)
Image 2/ Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four Central Military District [CMD] brigades) to the Berdychi-Novokalynove line northwest of Avdiivka.
Apr 22 6 tweets 2 min read
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on April 21 that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces seized Bohdanivka (northeast of Chasiv Yar), but ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming this claim. (1/6)

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2/ A prominent Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian forces recently withdrew from their remaining positions in the southwestern part of Bohdanivka but did not provide visual evidence to confirm this claim.
Apr 22 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine "by the end of the week" if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24.Image
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2/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative.