SitRep - 22/07/26 - Drapatyi's first day as Commander-in-Chief

An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Today, Zelensky signed the decrees which dismissed Syrskyi and Hnatov and appointed Drapatyi and Skybyuk.

REPOST=appreciated

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Missed the latest?

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2079839439249940576

As usual we start with Russian losses

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2079839697669366163

@Citrullin @LefterisJP @griffgreen @ChrJentzsch I apologize for the late reply. I've been building. it's complementary to your thesis.

I still can't find the way to fully address your article in short format, but I agree wholeheartedly in some areas (Parts III and IV in their entirety).

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@Citrullin @LefterisJP @griffgreen @ChrJentzsch the human quantum model is great for economists, and accurate in its wave collapse analogy. but the system is too chaotic to measure accurately unless constrained by amygdalic inputs. which is how this platform and others like it work.

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@Citrullin @LefterisJP @griffgreen @ChrJentzsch when you discuss L2s, the current state is not the envisioned state or the final state. but in all states, L2s and L3s are *clients* of the L1. and so settlement is indeed probabilistic, L3 to L2 to L1, *probabilistic* finality all the way down.

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This is where we are going. A thread.

The anatomy of Qatari foreign influence (per Alan Bender & Imam Tawhidi, 2019) operates in a 6-part cycle:
1️⃣ Capital injection
2️⃣ Proxy placement
3️⃣ Intelligence extraction
4️⃣ Legislative influence
5️⃣ Media cover
6️⃣ Whistleblower targeting
Protecting the "capital loop."

In a November 27, 2019, livestream broadcast from Budapest, Hungary, Imam Mohammed Tawhidi—widely known as the “Imam of Peace”—made explosive allegations about foreign interference in American institutions.

One of the biggest reasons hearts become hard, It isn’t always major sins.

The answer might surprise you.

A hardened heart doesn’t happen overnight.

It happens little by little.

A prayer rushed.
A Qur’an left unopened.
A reminder ignored.
A sin repeated without repentance.

Allah says:

“No! Rather, the stain has covered their hearts because of what they used to earn.” (Qur’an 83:14)

Every sin leaves a mark on the heart.

But every sincere act of repentance polishes it again.

Thank you so much for this post on topical fluoroquinolones (eye and ear drops) also leading to fluoroquinolone injury.

I need this post so terribly to try to save myself -- my best weapon, my mind, is barely functional. I have such excitotoxicity at the NMDA receptor that I have crushing fatigue all day and terrible brain fog.

Yes, everybody, you CAN get this from eye drops -- I did -- and this needs to be widely known.

Especially when prescribed with a glucocorticoid to a patient over 60 -- and athletic. Like me.

There are likely many undiagnosed cases from topical doses. I have transdisciplinary medical science knowledge, so I was able to figure it out.

From my notes - from Persson, Jick 2019.

@FQ_100

https://x.com/FQ_100/status/2034078291607662872?s=20

@FQ_100 @threadreaderapp unroll

Culture tests have now come back positive for live Legionella bacteria in 51 cooling towers on the Upper East Side. We continue to believe the source of the cluster is likely eliminated.

All buildings with an initial positive result have followed orders to clean and disinfect its cooling tower. There have been no new cases diagnosed in 7 days, and no one reporting new symptoms in 12 days.

See the updated list at: nyc.gov/legionnaires

As a reminder: the culture tests do not tell us which specific tower or towers are matched to a patient case. That will be confirmed through DNA sequencing, which will come later. We will continue to update the list daily as culture results become available.

X: To get compensation for XYZ the firm wants all nine digits of our zip code.
Me: Oof well thats look-uppable.
X: I think this is intentional friction to avoid a payout. Certainly they didn't need [nine digits] to charge my credit card.
Me: Oh AVS verification fun fact.

X: What could be a fun fact.
Me: So AVS *can* return a code allowing some credit card schemes to discriminate between a 9 digit match and only a 5 digit match but in practice false positives eat all the benefit from more aggressive forms of matching than just five digits so...

... relatively few companies would benefit from either asking for the full nine digits or rejecting transactions for which they are wrong.
X: Not helping.
Me: Sorry.

What happens to a child taken from Ukraine?

(1/12)

(2/12)

(3/12)

🧵 What does Islamic tradition say about people with disabilities? Islam recognizes disabilities and other physical differences as part of human experience while calling believers towards compassion. However, interpretations have varied across classical scholarship. (1/27)

Early hadith collections describe individuals with bodily differences through specific stories, while later scholars developed the category dhawi al-ʿahat (“people with bodily afflictions”) to organize these reports. (2/27)

Scholars such as Qadi al-Iyad (d. 1149 CE) and al-Qastallani (d. 1517 CE) reported accounts of the Prophet healing those experiencing illness, injury, blindness, and other physical conditions, saying there is baraka (blessing) in these encounters. (3/27)

For 1st time ever, $GOOG reported negative cash flow. It can easily crash 10% in right now.

But, here's why its actually bullish:

In 1-2 years $GOOG should be at $600+ and here's why:

1. Revenue: $119.8B, up 24% — BULLISH

The first thing that jumps out at me is that this is Alphabet's 12th straight quarter of double digit growth, and it's accelerating, not fading. A company this size growing 24% shouldn't be normal, but here we are. US revenue alone ripped 32%. That's my green light right at the top.

2. Google Cloud: +82% to $24.8B — BULLISH

This is the number I care about most, and it's the headline everyone will lead with. Cloud didn't just grow, it accelerated into the 80s on enterprise AI demand. When I'm sizing up whether Google is winning the AI buildout, this line is my scoreboard, and right now it's flashing green.

3. Cloud operating income tripled to $8.8B — BULLISH

Here's what most people miss: I'm not just watching Cloud's top line, I'm watching whether it makes money. Margins went from ~21% to ~36% year over year.

That tells me this isn't growth I'm paying for with burned cash, it's growth with real leverage underneath it. To me, that's more bullish than the 82% itself.

4. Operating income +30%, margin 34% — BULLISH

This is the combo I always hunt for: spending aggressively on AI while expanding margins. Most companies do one or the other. Alphabet did both this quarter, and that's the sign of a business with genuine pricing power and discipline.

5. EPS $9.11, up 294% — NEUTRAL (and here's your trap)

Don't let anyone sell you that 294% number. When I dig in, $6.26 of that EPS came from a one time $99B unrealized gain on their equity stakes, paper money, not the business. Strip it out and core EPS is around $2.85 vs $2.31, so really ~23% growth.

Still great. But quote the 294% headline and someone smarter in the replies will eat you alive.

6. Free cash flow went NEGATIVE: -$5.86B — BEARISH

This is the one that made me sit up. For the first time I can remember, Alphabet burned cash for the quarter. Trailing twelve FCF is still $53B, but the trajectory is falling off a cliff as they spend. I'm not panicking, but I'm watching this like a hawk, and so should you.

7. CapEx doubled to $44.9B — MIXED

Here's the direct cause of that negative FCF: they're spending like crazy on AI infrastructure. I read this two ways at once, bullish if you believe the buildout pays off, bearish if you care about near term cash. I lean toward "this is the price of staying in the game."

8. Buybacks went to ZERO, and they raised ~$70B in equity and debt — BEARISH/NEUTRAL

This is the structural shift nobody's talking about. A year ago Google bought back $13B of stock. This quarter? Zero. Instead they raised ~$50B in equity and $20B in notes, and doubled their long term debt. When a cash machine flips into a capital raiser, I take note. That's dilution and leverage where there used to be neither.

9. Search +17% to $63.3B — BULLISH

This is my favorite point, because it kills the biggest bear case on the stock. Everyone's been screaming "AI is going to kill Google Search." The data says the opposite: AI features are driving query growth. Until this line breaks, the "Search is dying" thesis is dead in the water.

10. Gemini traction is real — BULLISH

Numbers don't lie: 950M monthly actives on the Gemini app, 22B API tokens a minute, and roughly 90% of the Fortune 100 on Gemini Enterprise. When I want proof Google's AI is being used and not just demoed, this is it, and it flows straight into those Cloud numbers.

I'm keeping my eyes on their AI infrastructure buildout, because that ~$70B they just raised goes straight into data centers and compute. That's the bet.

The one that excites me most is TPU systems as a product. Google is now selling its own AI chips to enterprise customers, and that inventory jump from $2.4B to $10B tells me they're building to ship a lot more. Brand new revenue line, and it puts them head to head with $NVDA in a way most people aren't pricing in yet.

I'm also watching Gemini Enterprise, where near full Fortune 100 penetration gives them a massive base to upsell into. Their new Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber model pushes deeper into enterprise security, a market they've barely tapped. And in the background, Waymo keeps scaling as the real optionality inside Other Bets, while YouTube proved this quarter it's becoming the place for live global events, with 1.7B unique viewers on World Cup content alone.

Bottom line the way I see it: the bull case is Cloud accelerating, margins expanding, and Search refusing to die. The bear case is capex exploding, free cash flow going negative, and buybacks off with dilution on.

10 books to fall in love with ancient history:

1) 1177 B.C. by Eric Cline

2) SPQR by Mary Beard

3) The Spartans by Paul Cartledge

Some men grow up having to be a companion to their mother.

They're seen as "mama's boys" but something deeper is going on...

This is called enmeshment.

Mother son enmeshment is when a son fills the role for his mother that a partner would fill. This begins because the mother is in an emotionally neglectful relationship or feels isolated and alone.

Her son becomes the person to meet her needs.

She tells him everything and over-relies on him, so he grows up without developing autonomy.

He lacks the ability to understand his own emotions, desires, and opinions.