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1/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
2/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
3/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement
azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
ShinyHunters has successfully hit the big leagues.
ShinyHunters successfully disrupting exams, schooling, grading, government funded research projects, dissertation work, graduations, financial aid, financial loss, potentially immigration complications, and more, has elevated this from "a silly shenanigan" to "major national security incident" and being labeled as an attack on United States critical infrastructure.
If I had to guess, the FBI, NSA, CIA, DIA, CISA, ICE, and DOE are all involved due to the disruption of this.
This isn't the largest extortion campaign I've seen, but this is definitely in the top ten. This is what the kids call a "Certified Hood Classic".
ShinyHunters successfully disrupting exams, schooling, grading, government funded research projects, dissertation work, graduations, financial aid, financial loss, potentially immigration complications, and more, has elevated this from "a silly shenanigan" to "major national security incident" and being labeled as an attack on United States critical infrastructure.
If I had to guess, the FBI, NSA, CIA, DIA, CISA, ICE, and DOE are all involved due to the disruption of this.
This isn't the largest extortion campaign I've seen, but this is definitely in the top ten. This is what the kids call a "Certified Hood Classic".
On social media parents are outraged and are commenting they want the United States to respond MILITARILY.
They're unironically calling for Hegseth to authorize military action against ShinyHunters and DRONE STRIKE them.
Holy cow
They're unironically calling for Hegseth to authorize military action against ShinyHunters and DRONE STRIKE them.
Holy cow
Note: there is a 0% chance they're drone striked. I've only seen a nerd drone striked once. These are just angry normies who don't understand computers and are raging online.
1/ On Feb 21 I told my boss aka my wife @LTwolfe that I had my third conviction call not yet appreciated + to buy a basket
*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
2/ here was the 2016 tweet on NVDA…
3/ In the fall is 2024 I pitched SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung and we bought in our pa
Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
1/ Melanie Phillips @MelanieLatest—a member if not a leader of the reality-based club of truth seekers and speakers—has written the single most comprehensive + cogent essay you will have read this year.
I’ve pasted it here and this 🧵
The anti-Zionist contagion
Diaspora Jewish leaders should get up off their knees and start fighting it.
Over the past few days, antisemitism has exploded as an issue in Britain.
It was a reaction to two things. Last week, two Jews were stabbed in separate attacks in the streets of London’s largely Jewish area of Golders Green. This week, the insurgent Green Party very publicly sank into a sewer of Jew-hatred during the run-up to Britain’s local government elections.
Dozens of Green Party candidates, whose supposed environmental concerns have given way to a hard-left, anti-Israel agenda, were revealed over the past few days as having a record of blood-curdling Jew-hatred.
Their party leader, Zack Polanski—who is himself a Jew—had asked whether British Jews were really unsafe or merely had “a perception of unsafety.” After the Golders Green attacks, he provoked outrage by criticizing the police for kicking the attacker to disarm him.
British Jews are under increasingly aggressive siege from abuse, intimidation, discrimination, arson attacks on their institutions, street violence and terrorism that left two Jews dead in a synagogue on Yom Kippur.
The Golders Green stabbings last week provoked a huge outpouring of revulsion and concern. There was a fusillade of bromides about “no place for antisemitism in Britain” from the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, and other Labour Party politicians.
The media suddenly started publishing accounts by deeply distressed British Jews about the state of fear in which they were being forced to live. Commentators produced outraged and horrified diatribes against a society that was forcing its Jews to consider emigrating.
Yet some of those voices had previously produced outraged and horrified diatribes against the State of Israel, recycling defamatory falsehoods about the behavior of the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip.
This discrepancy alone should have sounded a warning that, for all the public breast-beating, the real point was still being lost.
This is because attacks on Jews are still deemed to be in a separate category from attacks on Israel or Zionism. The assumption is that attacks on Jews are very bad indeed because they are against people, but attacks on Israel or Zionism are absolutely fine because they are merely against a country or an ideology.
The distinction is false, and itself helps fuel the hatred of both Israel and Jews.
The point was illustrated this week in Manhattan. At Park East Synagogue on New York City’s Upper East Side, where an event marketing Israeli real estate was taking place, hundreds of masked Islamists and their supporters chanted from behind a police barricade: “We don’t want two states. We want ’48!”
The mob, which flew a Hezbollah flag, was spearheaded by a branch of Al-Awda, which is linked to Samidoun, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
The police thankfully prevented a repeat of what happened last November at Park East, when anti-Israel demonstrators blocked people from entering and exiting the synagogue. That intimidation helped motivate city legislators to tell the police to establish a protest-free “buffer zone” around houses of worship.
The city’s Islamist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, is ruthlessly exploiting the false distinction between attacking Israel and attacking Jews.
“There is no tolerance for hatred of Jewish New Yorkers,” he said about the Park East demonstration.
Yet at the same time, he registered his opposition to the synagogue event that was promoting the sale of land “in occupied West Bank in settlements that are a violation of international law.”
I’ve pasted it here and this 🧵
The anti-Zionist contagion
Diaspora Jewish leaders should get up off their knees and start fighting it.
Over the past few days, antisemitism has exploded as an issue in Britain.
It was a reaction to two things. Last week, two Jews were stabbed in separate attacks in the streets of London’s largely Jewish area of Golders Green. This week, the insurgent Green Party very publicly sank into a sewer of Jew-hatred during the run-up to Britain’s local government elections.
Dozens of Green Party candidates, whose supposed environmental concerns have given way to a hard-left, anti-Israel agenda, were revealed over the past few days as having a record of blood-curdling Jew-hatred.
Their party leader, Zack Polanski—who is himself a Jew—had asked whether British Jews were really unsafe or merely had “a perception of unsafety.” After the Golders Green attacks, he provoked outrage by criticizing the police for kicking the attacker to disarm him.
British Jews are under increasingly aggressive siege from abuse, intimidation, discrimination, arson attacks on their institutions, street violence and terrorism that left two Jews dead in a synagogue on Yom Kippur.
The Golders Green stabbings last week provoked a huge outpouring of revulsion and concern. There was a fusillade of bromides about “no place for antisemitism in Britain” from the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, and other Labour Party politicians.
The media suddenly started publishing accounts by deeply distressed British Jews about the state of fear in which they were being forced to live. Commentators produced outraged and horrified diatribes against a society that was forcing its Jews to consider emigrating.
Yet some of those voices had previously produced outraged and horrified diatribes against the State of Israel, recycling defamatory falsehoods about the behavior of the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip.
This discrepancy alone should have sounded a warning that, for all the public breast-beating, the real point was still being lost.
This is because attacks on Jews are still deemed to be in a separate category from attacks on Israel or Zionism. The assumption is that attacks on Jews are very bad indeed because they are against people, but attacks on Israel or Zionism are absolutely fine because they are merely against a country or an ideology.
The distinction is false, and itself helps fuel the hatred of both Israel and Jews.
The point was illustrated this week in Manhattan. At Park East Synagogue on New York City’s Upper East Side, where an event marketing Israeli real estate was taking place, hundreds of masked Islamists and their supporters chanted from behind a police barricade: “We don’t want two states. We want ’48!”
The mob, which flew a Hezbollah flag, was spearheaded by a branch of Al-Awda, which is linked to Samidoun, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
The police thankfully prevented a repeat of what happened last November at Park East, when anti-Israel demonstrators blocked people from entering and exiting the synagogue. That intimidation helped motivate city legislators to tell the police to establish a protest-free “buffer zone” around houses of worship.
The city’s Islamist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, is ruthlessly exploiting the false distinction between attacking Israel and attacking Jews.
“There is no tolerance for hatred of Jewish New Yorkers,” he said about the Park East demonstration.
Yet at the same time, he registered his opposition to the synagogue event that was promoting the sale of land “in occupied West Bank in settlements that are a violation of international law.”
2/ Condemning Jew-hatred while simultaneously inciting it through incendiary distortions is the mind-twisting stock in trade of the anti-Israel left.
In Britain, Starmer’s government is now talking about banning the “hate marches” that have taken place almost every week since the Hamas-led atrocities in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
The belated realization is beginning to dawn that the chanting on these marches for the murder of Jews may help cause actual attacks on Jews.
Despite this, Starmer and many others are still failing to join the necessary dots. The rampant Jew-hatred that has so shocked them is the result of something that they won’t acknowledge.
It’s anti-Zionism that is poisoning Western society, spreading a mind virus that’s targeting both the Jewish world and Western civilization itself. This contagion is being spread principally by Islamists, who are gleefully tapping into the anti-Zionism that has captured the non-Muslim progressive classes, including vast swathes of the young.
The question that’s constantly asked—if anti-Zionism really is antisemitism or is something different—fails to encompass the sickening enormity of what’s happened.
Anti-Zionism is an evil in itself because it launders antisemitism. It singles out the Jewish state for a verbal pogrom of wild blood libels straight out of medieval Christian, Soviet and Nazi demonology.
Accusations against Israel of “genocide,” starving innocent Gazans to death or wanton “baby-killing” aren’t just defamatory lies. They present the Israelis as positively evil and a uniquely demonic force in the world which therefore needs to be removed.
This murderous hatred doesn’t just fuel the aim of eliminating Israel. It’s also awakened that lightest of sleepers in the West, the secret wish of millions to remove the Jews from their world altogether.
The “hate marches” have been joined by people who may think they’re supporting the poor, oppressed Palestinians against the cruel and oppressive Israelis who have occupied their land.
Nevertheless, these marches are in themselves an attack on Jews because they are an attack on Zionism, a denial of the right of the Jewish people alone to have their own nation-state in their own ancestral homeland.
Led, organized and funded by Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, these marches aren’t organized principally to protest against Israel or in support of “Palestine.” They are instead an expression of near-delirious Islamist triumphalism and a statement that the Muslims now control the streets.
For the Islamists, the Oct. 7 atrocities signaled the beginning of the end of the Zionist entity, itself a stepping stone to the conquest of the West.
The Islamists believe that they’re on course to victory because there’s been no pushback against them, only against Israel.
Hamas actually thanked Starmer for rewarding them on Oct. 7 by recognizing a “State of Palestine.” And they gloat that U.S. President Donald Trump is being outwitted by the regime in Tehran.
In America, the Democratic Party is hurtling down the anti-Zionist rabbit hole. This has given permission to the Tucker Carlson faction of MAGA Republicans to parade their vicious conspiracy theories about Jews and Israel.
Meanwhile, Britain and Europe are rapidly losing their historic cultural identity to Islamization. And that’s not all.
It’s now clear that the threat to the West from communism didn’t collapse along with the Soviet Union in 1989. Communism merely shifted its strategy to wage a culture war that has colonized the Western intelligentsia by anti-West hatred, and to use the Palestinian cause as a Trojan Horse to destroy the West’s moral compass altogether.
In the 1960s, the Palestinian terrorist leader Yasser Arafat cooked up a fictitious Palestinian identity with the Soviet Union.
In Britain, Starmer’s government is now talking about banning the “hate marches” that have taken place almost every week since the Hamas-led atrocities in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
The belated realization is beginning to dawn that the chanting on these marches for the murder of Jews may help cause actual attacks on Jews.
Despite this, Starmer and many others are still failing to join the necessary dots. The rampant Jew-hatred that has so shocked them is the result of something that they won’t acknowledge.
It’s anti-Zionism that is poisoning Western society, spreading a mind virus that’s targeting both the Jewish world and Western civilization itself. This contagion is being spread principally by Islamists, who are gleefully tapping into the anti-Zionism that has captured the non-Muslim progressive classes, including vast swathes of the young.
The question that’s constantly asked—if anti-Zionism really is antisemitism or is something different—fails to encompass the sickening enormity of what’s happened.
Anti-Zionism is an evil in itself because it launders antisemitism. It singles out the Jewish state for a verbal pogrom of wild blood libels straight out of medieval Christian, Soviet and Nazi demonology.
Accusations against Israel of “genocide,” starving innocent Gazans to death or wanton “baby-killing” aren’t just defamatory lies. They present the Israelis as positively evil and a uniquely demonic force in the world which therefore needs to be removed.
This murderous hatred doesn’t just fuel the aim of eliminating Israel. It’s also awakened that lightest of sleepers in the West, the secret wish of millions to remove the Jews from their world altogether.
The “hate marches” have been joined by people who may think they’re supporting the poor, oppressed Palestinians against the cruel and oppressive Israelis who have occupied their land.
Nevertheless, these marches are in themselves an attack on Jews because they are an attack on Zionism, a denial of the right of the Jewish people alone to have their own nation-state in their own ancestral homeland.
Led, organized and funded by Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran, these marches aren’t organized principally to protest against Israel or in support of “Palestine.” They are instead an expression of near-delirious Islamist triumphalism and a statement that the Muslims now control the streets.
For the Islamists, the Oct. 7 atrocities signaled the beginning of the end of the Zionist entity, itself a stepping stone to the conquest of the West.
The Islamists believe that they’re on course to victory because there’s been no pushback against them, only against Israel.
Hamas actually thanked Starmer for rewarding them on Oct. 7 by recognizing a “State of Palestine.” And they gloat that U.S. President Donald Trump is being outwitted by the regime in Tehran.
In America, the Democratic Party is hurtling down the anti-Zionist rabbit hole. This has given permission to the Tucker Carlson faction of MAGA Republicans to parade their vicious conspiracy theories about Jews and Israel.
Meanwhile, Britain and Europe are rapidly losing their historic cultural identity to Islamization. And that’s not all.
It’s now clear that the threat to the West from communism didn’t collapse along with the Soviet Union in 1989. Communism merely shifted its strategy to wage a culture war that has colonized the Western intelligentsia by anti-West hatred, and to use the Palestinian cause as a Trojan Horse to destroy the West’s moral compass altogether.
In the 1960s, the Palestinian terrorist leader Yasser Arafat cooked up a fictitious Palestinian identity with the Soviet Union.
3/In 1975, the KGB orchestrated the U.N. declaration that Zionism was racism.
In the 1980s, as the scholar Izabella Tabarovsky has documented, the Soviet Union promoted the “genocide” libel against Israel.
Fighting the menace of Islamist and communist-backed anti-Zionism is hardly being assisted by Diaspora Jews protesting that attacking them is unjustified because they have nothing to do with Israel. This merely reinforces the impression that Israel is too awful to be identified with.
Diaspora Jews should be loudly declaring instead that Palestinian identity is a fabrication created to destroy Israel and steal the Jews’ own history in their ancestral homeland. They should be saying that Israel always acts in accordance with international law. They should be calling out Muslim antisemitism as a scourge going way beyond Islamist extremists.
They don’t do so, either through fear or because too many themselves believe the lies or support the poisonous ideologies that underwrite them.
Anti-Zionism is a weapon of mass destruction—not just against Israel and the Jews but against the West. It’s high time that Diaspora Jewish leaders acknowledged this and started fighting it robustly in public.
They would gain many allies if they got up off their knees and did so.
FULL LINK: jns.org/opinion/column…
In the 1980s, as the scholar Izabella Tabarovsky has documented, the Soviet Union promoted the “genocide” libel against Israel.
Fighting the menace of Islamist and communist-backed anti-Zionism is hardly being assisted by Diaspora Jews protesting that attacking them is unjustified because they have nothing to do with Israel. This merely reinforces the impression that Israel is too awful to be identified with.
Diaspora Jews should be loudly declaring instead that Palestinian identity is a fabrication created to destroy Israel and steal the Jews’ own history in their ancestral homeland. They should be saying that Israel always acts in accordance with international law. They should be calling out Muslim antisemitism as a scourge going way beyond Islamist extremists.
They don’t do so, either through fear or because too many themselves believe the lies or support the poisonous ideologies that underwrite them.
Anti-Zionism is a weapon of mass destruction—not just against Israel and the Jews but against the West. It’s high time that Diaspora Jewish leaders acknowledged this and started fighting it robustly in public.
They would gain many allies if they got up off their knees and did so.
FULL LINK: jns.org/opinion/column…
The five-second epistemology of one battle dressed up as two — the destroyers withdrawing from the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian missile fire, the strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as cover for the withdrawal, and the press release reporting tit for tat to hide a defeat at sea.
The seminary will report two events from Day 69 evening.
One. US strikes Iran — Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Port hit by Tomahawk missiles per Fox.
Two. Iran strikes US — destroyers under sustained IRGC missile barrage forced to fire CIWS, then withdraw from the Strait per CBS.
The seminary will frame this as escalation in both directions. Tit for tat. Both sides claim a hit. Equal exchange. The press release writes itself.
The kitchen reads one engagement. The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defense and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal — symbolic targets selected to give the press release something to print while the actual military reality was the United States Navy losing the geographic position the United States Navy was in the Strait to hold.
One battle. Two press releases. A defeat at sea, dressed up as an exchange of fire.
I. THE KIND OF WAR.
Clausewitz: the supreme act of judgment is recognizing the kind of war one is in.
The kind of war is the kind where the defender drives the attacker out of the contested water and the attacker fires Tomahawks at coastal targets to make the withdrawal look like a punitive strike. The Tomahawks are the press release. The withdrawal is the war.
CIWS firing means the layered defense had failed. SM-2 missed. SM-6 missed. ESSM missed. RAM missed. The destroyers were down to twenty-millimeter Gatling guns at terminal range. CIWS fires for roughly thirty seconds before the magazine empties. The destroyers fired CIWS. The destroyers withdrew. Withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement is a defeat at sea recorded by the destroyer’s own combat logs whether the press release reports it or not.
The Bandar Abbas and Qeshm strikes were timed to coincide. The empire fired Tomahawks at the very moment the destroyers were withdrawing under fire, so the press release could report two events as if they were a balanced exchange instead of one event with a winner and a loser.
— The kind of war is the kind where you fire missiles at the lighthouse to distract from the fact that your ship is leaving.
II. FRICTION.
Clausewitz: no plan survives contact.
The empire’s plan presupposed that destroyer-launched layered defense plus CIWS would absorb Iranian anti-ship missile pressure indefinitely, and that Tomahawk strikes on coastal Iran would suppress IRGC launch positions in real time and reduce the missile pressure on the destroyers.
Both presuppositions failed within the same engagement. The layered defense exhausted itself to the point of CIWS firing. The Tomahawk strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm did not suppress the IRGC missile pressure — the destroyers had to leave anyway. The strikes were not suppression. The strikes were performative. The IRGC missile batteries are on hundreds of kilometers of Iranian coastline. Tomahawks at two ports do not silence the coast.
The friction is the magazine. CIWS magazines empty in thirty seconds. Iran has more anti-ship missiles than the empire’s destroyers carry interceptors. The empire’s plan treated the engagement as a single round. Iran was prepared for multiple rounds.
— The plan ran out of interceptors before Iran ran out of missiles. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse did not refill the interceptor magazine.
The seminary will report two events from Day 69 evening.
One. US strikes Iran — Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Port hit by Tomahawk missiles per Fox.
Two. Iran strikes US — destroyers under sustained IRGC missile barrage forced to fire CIWS, then withdraw from the Strait per CBS.
The seminary will frame this as escalation in both directions. Tit for tat. Both sides claim a hit. Equal exchange. The press release writes itself.
The kitchen reads one engagement. The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defense and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal — symbolic targets selected to give the press release something to print while the actual military reality was the United States Navy losing the geographic position the United States Navy was in the Strait to hold.
One battle. Two press releases. A defeat at sea, dressed up as an exchange of fire.
I. THE KIND OF WAR.
Clausewitz: the supreme act of judgment is recognizing the kind of war one is in.
The kind of war is the kind where the defender drives the attacker out of the contested water and the attacker fires Tomahawks at coastal targets to make the withdrawal look like a punitive strike. The Tomahawks are the press release. The withdrawal is the war.
CIWS firing means the layered defense had failed. SM-2 missed. SM-6 missed. ESSM missed. RAM missed. The destroyers were down to twenty-millimeter Gatling guns at terminal range. CIWS fires for roughly thirty seconds before the magazine empties. The destroyers fired CIWS. The destroyers withdrew. Withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement is a defeat at sea recorded by the destroyer’s own combat logs whether the press release reports it or not.
The Bandar Abbas and Qeshm strikes were timed to coincide. The empire fired Tomahawks at the very moment the destroyers were withdrawing under fire, so the press release could report two events as if they were a balanced exchange instead of one event with a winner and a loser.
— The kind of war is the kind where you fire missiles at the lighthouse to distract from the fact that your ship is leaving.
II. FRICTION.
Clausewitz: no plan survives contact.
The empire’s plan presupposed that destroyer-launched layered defense plus CIWS would absorb Iranian anti-ship missile pressure indefinitely, and that Tomahawk strikes on coastal Iran would suppress IRGC launch positions in real time and reduce the missile pressure on the destroyers.
Both presuppositions failed within the same engagement. The layered defense exhausted itself to the point of CIWS firing. The Tomahawk strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm did not suppress the IRGC missile pressure — the destroyers had to leave anyway. The strikes were not suppression. The strikes were performative. The IRGC missile batteries are on hundreds of kilometers of Iranian coastline. Tomahawks at two ports do not silence the coast.
The friction is the magazine. CIWS magazines empty in thirty seconds. Iran has more anti-ship missiles than the empire’s destroyers carry interceptors. The empire’s plan treated the engagement as a single round. Iran was prepared for multiple rounds.
— The plan ran out of interceptors before Iran ran out of missiles. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse did not refill the interceptor magazine.
III. THE CULMINATING POINT.
Clausewitz: the offensive past its culmination is the defender’s gift.
The empire’s offensive culminated on Day 1. Every kinetic action since has been a gift to the defender. The Bandar Abbas strikes are gifts. The Qeshm strikes are gifts. The defender accepts the gifts and adds them to the reparations bill Rezaei published two hours earlier.
The withdrawal is not a gift. The withdrawal is the defender’s seizure. The defender now holds the Strait without the destroyer screen. The defender’s hold is now demonstrated. Other navies will know. Other admirals will know. Other coalition commitments will be reconsidered.
The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas were the empire’s attempt to make the gift look like a transaction. Iran does not transact with gifts. Iran adds them to the bill.
— You cannot make a withdrawal look like a victory by firing at empty ports as you leave.
IV. MORAL FORCES.
Clausewitz: what decides wars regardless of material balance.
Three quarters of the war is moral. The moral is who is keeping the books and who is reading the press release.
Iran is keeping the books. Karbala does not forget. The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was the books’ published statement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm have been added to the books. The destroyers’ withdrawal under CIWS fire has been added to the books. The books grow with every engagement.
The empire is reading the press release. The press release reports two events as a balanced exchange. The press release does not report CIWS as last-resort engagement. The press release does not report withdrawal under fire as defeat at sea. The press release reports tit for tat because tit for tat is what the press release was written to report regardless of what happened.
Iran’s destroyers did not engage. Iran’s submarines did not deploy. The pressure on the empire’s destroyers came from coastal anti-ship missile batteries that did not have to move.
— Iran has the books. The empire has the press release. The press release does not refloat the destroyers in the Strait the destroyers just left.
V. SCHWERPUNKT.
Clausewitz: not a noun but a relation.
The empire’s Schwerpunkt was the destroyer screen in the Strait. Schwerpunkt is the relation between the army and the army’s ability to be in the place the army needs to be. The destroyer screen could not be in the Strait under sustained Iranian missile fire. The Schwerpunkt collapsed at sea.
Iran’s Schwerpunkt is the relation between the coastline and the missile batteries. The coastline did not move. The missile batteries did not move. The destroyers had to move. The Schwerpunkt belongs to whoever does not have to move under fire.
— Tomahawks in two ports do not hold a Strait. The destroyers held the Strait. The destroyers left.
Clausewitz: the offensive past its culmination is the defender’s gift.
The empire’s offensive culminated on Day 1. Every kinetic action since has been a gift to the defender. The Bandar Abbas strikes are gifts. The Qeshm strikes are gifts. The defender accepts the gifts and adds them to the reparations bill Rezaei published two hours earlier.
The withdrawal is not a gift. The withdrawal is the defender’s seizure. The defender now holds the Strait without the destroyer screen. The defender’s hold is now demonstrated. Other navies will know. Other admirals will know. Other coalition commitments will be reconsidered.
The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas were the empire’s attempt to make the gift look like a transaction. Iran does not transact with gifts. Iran adds them to the bill.
— You cannot make a withdrawal look like a victory by firing at empty ports as you leave.
IV. MORAL FORCES.
Clausewitz: what decides wars regardless of material balance.
Three quarters of the war is moral. The moral is who is keeping the books and who is reading the press release.
Iran is keeping the books. Karbala does not forget. The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was the books’ published statement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm have been added to the books. The destroyers’ withdrawal under CIWS fire has been added to the books. The books grow with every engagement.
The empire is reading the press release. The press release reports two events as a balanced exchange. The press release does not report CIWS as last-resort engagement. The press release does not report withdrawal under fire as defeat at sea. The press release reports tit for tat because tit for tat is what the press release was written to report regardless of what happened.
Iran’s destroyers did not engage. Iran’s submarines did not deploy. The pressure on the empire’s destroyers came from coastal anti-ship missile batteries that did not have to move.
— Iran has the books. The empire has the press release. The press release does not refloat the destroyers in the Strait the destroyers just left.
V. SCHWERPUNKT.
Clausewitz: not a noun but a relation.
The empire’s Schwerpunkt was the destroyer screen in the Strait. Schwerpunkt is the relation between the army and the army’s ability to be in the place the army needs to be. The destroyer screen could not be in the Strait under sustained Iranian missile fire. The Schwerpunkt collapsed at sea.
Iran’s Schwerpunkt is the relation between the coastline and the missile batteries. The coastline did not move. The missile batteries did not move. The destroyers had to move. The Schwerpunkt belongs to whoever does not have to move under fire.
— Tomahawks in two ports do not hold a Strait. The destroyers held the Strait. The destroyers left.
VI. THE COVER FIRE.
Clausewitz: the operation succeeds when the operation’s logic is invisible to the enemy.
The cover fire was the strikes. The withdrawal was the operation. The seminary is reading the cover fire as the operation and missing the operation entirely.
A withdrawal at sea under fire requires diversion. The diversion can be active jamming, smoke, deception, or cruise missile strikes against coastal positions that force the defender to reallocate sensor capacity. The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s diversion. The diversion bought time for the destroyers to break contact and exit the Strait.
The diversion’s secondary purpose was the press release. The press release needed the strikes to exist so the press release could report two events. Two events let the press release report tit for tat. Tit for tat lets the press release avoid reporting withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement.
— The Tomahawks were the smoke. The withdrawal was the move. The press release sells the smoke as the move.
VII. WAR PLANS.
Clausewitz: the plan that has lost what the plan was for is paper.
The empire’s plan needed the destroyers in the Strait. The destroyers in the Strait was the plan’s claim of presence. The plan’s claim of presence was what made the architecture’s tollbooth contestable on the empire’s framework. With the destroyers out of the Strait, the tollbooth is uncontested.
The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was Iran calling the question. The destroyers leaving at midnight is the answer being delivered. The empire’s Tomahawks are the empire pretending the question is still open. The question is not open. The destroyers are not in the Strait.
— The plan needed the ship to be in the place. The ship left the place. The plan is paper. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse do not bring the ship back.
Clausewitz: the operation succeeds when the operation’s logic is invisible to the enemy.
The cover fire was the strikes. The withdrawal was the operation. The seminary is reading the cover fire as the operation and missing the operation entirely.
A withdrawal at sea under fire requires diversion. The diversion can be active jamming, smoke, deception, or cruise missile strikes against coastal positions that force the defender to reallocate sensor capacity. The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s diversion. The diversion bought time for the destroyers to break contact and exit the Strait.
The diversion’s secondary purpose was the press release. The press release needed the strikes to exist so the press release could report two events. Two events let the press release report tit for tat. Tit for tat lets the press release avoid reporting withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement.
— The Tomahawks were the smoke. The withdrawal was the move. The press release sells the smoke as the move.
VII. WAR PLANS.
Clausewitz: the plan that has lost what the plan was for is paper.
The empire’s plan needed the destroyers in the Strait. The destroyers in the Strait was the plan’s claim of presence. The plan’s claim of presence was what made the architecture’s tollbooth contestable on the empire’s framework. With the destroyers out of the Strait, the tollbooth is uncontested.
The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was Iran calling the question. The destroyers leaving at midnight is the answer being delivered. The empire’s Tomahawks are the empire pretending the question is still open. The question is not open. The destroyers are not in the Strait.
— The plan needed the ship to be in the place. The ship left the place. The plan is paper. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse do not bring the ship back.
Day 4 of the 57th 9/11 pretrial hearing at Guantanamo Bay. All four defendants waived right to attend this morning.
1st issue: The government's presentaion arguing against suppressing al Hawsawi's statements included information sealed in 2017. Hawsawi's lead counsel objected use is prejudicial and warranted a full briefing.
The government played damning recordings of conversations defendant Mohammad had with fellow prisoner during the period of his "clean team" interrogations on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Europe has to realize that there are two global military powers that it will have to find an arrangements with to safeguard its future security:
🇺🇸 the US
🇺🇦 Ukraine
These two have the highest defence materiel production output, and troops from these two are present in the
1/9
🇺🇸 the US
🇺🇦 Ukraine
These two have the highest defence materiel production output, and troops from these two are present in the
1/9
highest number of nations around the globe (Ukrainian troops are fighting russians in every nation, where russia has allied with the regime; a will to fight our enemies that is sorely lacking in the rest of Europe).
Minor powers like the UK or middling powers like France,
2/9
Minor powers like the UK or middling powers like France,
2/9
can't provide as much security (troops, defence equipment, tech innovation, will to fight, etc.) as Ukraine or the US.
While Ukrainians fight, innovate and produce vast amounts of war materiel, Europe continues to fiddle as the fire of war spreads across the continent.
3/9
While Ukrainians fight, innovate and produce vast amounts of war materiel, Europe continues to fiddle as the fire of war spreads across the continent.
3/9
Canvas is hacked and stressing out 230+ Million students, teachers and staff during finals. What does this mean and how do we stay safe? What are the next steps for the 8,800 affected schools during finals. Answered below in my video:
Cyber criminals are likely to attempt to phish students affected (their email addresses and some phone numbers are showing up in the breach lists) pretending to be Canva, professors, or updates from their school. Do not click/download or provide passwords, MFA codes, etc. Verify with your school or professor using another method of communication on a confirmed channel before taking sensitive actions.
If you receive messaging through text, email or phone call about Canvas and account recovery that is also likely a phishing message. Be extra politely paranoid and verify any communication is authentic with your school IT with another communication method before taking action.
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so"
I object to the idea that arguing about imbalances is hiding ...
I object to the idea that arguing about imbalances is hiding ...
China's imports have grown in volume terms at an annual rate of ~ 1% over the last 5 years. China's exports have grown at a faster rare that world trade. that is a real imbalance, not a fake one ...
China's savings rate is exceptionally high (comparable to Norway which saves its oil and gas proceeds as a matter of policy and Singapore which hides its investment returns from its citizens and the budget) and China's consumption to GDP ratio is incredibly low
We finally know why LLMs hallucinate. It's not the model. It's the geometry.
@OpenAI text-embedding-3-large: 91/3072 dimensions do real work.
@GeminiApp gemini-embedding-001: 80/3072 dimensions do real work.
~97% of your vector database is mathematically empty. Your RAG system is retrieving from noise.
@ashwingop and I present "The Geometry of Consolidation" - a proof that RAG compression has a hard floor no algorithm can beat, set by a single spectral number your embedding model cannot escape.
Every hallucination your RAG pipeline produces? This is why.
Paper + results: github.com/niashwin/geome…
@OpenAI text-embedding-3-large: 91/3072 dimensions do real work.
@GeminiApp gemini-embedding-001: 80/3072 dimensions do real work.
~97% of your vector database is mathematically empty. Your RAG system is retrieving from noise.
@ashwingop and I present "The Geometry of Consolidation" - a proof that RAG compression has a hard floor no algorithm can beat, set by a single spectral number your embedding model cannot escape.
Every hallucination your RAG pipeline produces? This is why.
Paper + results: github.com/niashwin/geome…
Here's the intuition behind that chart.
Your embedding model promises 3072 dimensions of storage.
All the real semantic signal? Crammed into 91 of them. The other 2,981 are noise your retrieval system searches through anyway.
This isn't a training failure. It's not fixable with a bigger model. It's what the geometry of these spaces actually looks like under the hood.
We call it "effective dimensionality".
Your embedding model promises 3072 dimensions of storage.
All the real semantic signal? Crammed into 91 of them. The other 2,981 are noise your retrieval system searches through anyway.
This isn't a training failure. It's not fixable with a bigger model. It's what the geometry of these spaces actually looks like under the hood.
We call it "effective dimensionality".
We present "The Geometry of Consolidation."
We prove that for any RAG compression algorithm:
- centroid
- product quantization
- learned routing
anything... there is a hard lower bound on retrieval error:
εid ≥ 1 − c · m · (θ′/d̄)^(d_eff/2)
One number sets the floor: d_eff, the effective dimension of your cluster. You cannot engineer around it.
We prove that for any RAG compression algorithm:
- centroid
- product quantization
- learned routing
anything... there is a hard lower bound on retrieval error:
εid ≥ 1 − c · m · (θ′/d̄)^(d_eff/2)
One number sets the floor: d_eff, the effective dimension of your cluster. You cannot engineer around it.
SCOOP: I got new details about the DNC’s autopsy, per people familiar with the report.
The autopsy doesn’t dive deep into the electoral impact of Biden administration's handling of Gaza, despite speculation that it might.
One person described the report as "gobbledygook."
🧵
The autopsy doesn’t dive deep into the electoral impact of Biden administration's handling of Gaza, despite speculation that it might.
One person described the report as "gobbledygook."
🧵
That’s notable, as questions linger about whether the controversy cost Harris votes.
Axios reported that officials working on the autopsy concluded that Harris “lost significant support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza.” axios.com/2026/02/22/dnc…
Axios reported that officials working on the autopsy concluded that Harris “lost significant support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza.” axios.com/2026/02/22/dnc…
People with knowledge of the report’s contents described it to me as strikingly sparse — and hardly a detailed anatomy of the party’s 2024 defeat.
I ordered a Big Mac with everything removed. Stay tuned to see what happens
Yelitza is waiting on them to finish preparing my order
Order is delayed but that’s ok I’m not that hungry anyways
