Thread Reader helps you read and share Twitter threads easily!
I'm @ThreadReaderApp a Twitter bot here to help you read threads more easily. To trigger me, you just have to reply to (or quote) any tweet of the thread you want to unroll and mention me with the "unroll" keyword and I'll send you a link back on Twitter 😀
— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) November 25, 2017
X thread is series of posts by the same author connected with a line!
From any post in the thread, mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll
Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us easily!
Practice here first or read more on our help page!
Recent
SitRep - 14/05/26 - A large Russian overnight attack
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a massive Russian overnight missile and drone attack, lots of residential areas were hit and civilians died. Russian terror.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a massive Russian overnight missile and drone attack, lots of residential areas were hit and civilians died. Russian terror.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
Missed the latest?
As usual we start with Russian losses
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
The leadership rotated, but the trend did not. The super cycle powers ahead.
The Quantix Commodity Index (QCI, the modern GSCI) Total Return is up 217% since October 2020, when we called the super cycle. The names rotated — gold, silver, copper, oil, live cattle, coffee, cocoa, aluminium. But not the trend. Nasdaq returned 130%. The S&P 500, 85%.
Commodities were the top asset class. Nobody allocated. Capital piled into the Mag 7 — $770 billion of 2026 capex, nearly half of it commodities. Amazon alone consumes more than 3 million BOE/d of primary energy, more than most OPEC countries. The Mag 7 is the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market...
…at the exact moment supply has never been more constrained. Hormuz is shut-in. China has weaponized the periodic table. Copper mines remain shuttered. Ukrainian drones push deeper into Russia, taking commodity supply with them. A multi-polar world demands thicker supply chains. Copper and the "atom" complex print fresh records this week. Every signal that should drive allocators into the "molecule" complex is flashing green simultaneously — for the first time since the 1970s.
And yet oil struggles to hold $105 — even as every signal points to a disruption that deepens and one we believe will outlast any "deal.” The energy sector trades 8% below its pre-Hormuz level and sits at 4.0% of the S&P 500 market cap. At $105 oil, its 2026 FCF yield is 13%. The S&P 500 is at 2.6% — the lowest since the GFC, 1,000bp below energy. The hyperscalers generate close to zero. Something has to give.
This paradox explains why oil struggles to trade higher. Capital is not rotating. The marginal dollar of investable savings still flows into the AI buildout, not the physical infrastructure that feeds it. Until that reverses, Brent faces headwinds. The ceiling on oil is not Washington. It is Exxon's cost of capital — woefully mispriced. Underbidding the equities is the same as underbidding the back end of the curve. The back end is suppressing the entire curve and spot prices.
1/10
The Quantix Commodity Index (QCI, the modern GSCI) Total Return is up 217% since October 2020, when we called the super cycle. The names rotated — gold, silver, copper, oil, live cattle, coffee, cocoa, aluminium. But not the trend. Nasdaq returned 130%. The S&P 500, 85%.
Commodities were the top asset class. Nobody allocated. Capital piled into the Mag 7 — $770 billion of 2026 capex, nearly half of it commodities. Amazon alone consumes more than 3 million BOE/d of primary energy, more than most OPEC countries. The Mag 7 is the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market...
…at the exact moment supply has never been more constrained. Hormuz is shut-in. China has weaponized the periodic table. Copper mines remain shuttered. Ukrainian drones push deeper into Russia, taking commodity supply with them. A multi-polar world demands thicker supply chains. Copper and the "atom" complex print fresh records this week. Every signal that should drive allocators into the "molecule" complex is flashing green simultaneously — for the first time since the 1970s.
And yet oil struggles to hold $105 — even as every signal points to a disruption that deepens and one we believe will outlast any "deal.” The energy sector trades 8% below its pre-Hormuz level and sits at 4.0% of the S&P 500 market cap. At $105 oil, its 2026 FCF yield is 13%. The S&P 500 is at 2.6% — the lowest since the GFC, 1,000bp below energy. The hyperscalers generate close to zero. Something has to give.
This paradox explains why oil struggles to trade higher. Capital is not rotating. The marginal dollar of investable savings still flows into the AI buildout, not the physical infrastructure that feeds it. Until that reverses, Brent faces headwinds. The ceiling on oil is not Washington. It is Exxon's cost of capital — woefully mispriced. Underbidding the equities is the same as underbidding the back end of the curve. The back end is suppressing the entire curve and spot prices.
1/10
The largest supply shock in history is pricing into the curve, not the backend (yet).
I've been saying this since 2004: the curve shape reflects the fundamentals. The long end reflects the industry's marginal cost, incorporating the cost of capital which are ultimately driven by liquidity.
ICE Brent spot is $107/bbl, while the three-year is at $75/bbl. Percent backwardation — which strips out price-level effects — hit an all-time high in April. It remains near record today. The largest oil supply shock in history is reasonably priced into the curve, and it likely has much more to run. Remember we are in the depths of the shoulder months, so there is no stress on the system.
Markets are fixated on Dated Brent differentials, c.$5/bbl last night which is down sharply, but that is a microcosm of the oil market. Dated Brent is Sullum Voe. One North Sea terminal. Not the global oil market.
Spot has not exceeded the Russia-Ukraine peak for one reason: the back end of the curve sits $10–$12/bbl below where it was then.
But the long end isn't a clean signal. Liquidity past 24 months is thin, dominated by producer hedges. Cal-29 isn't where the market thinks oil settles. It is where corporate treasurers are forced to transact, which makes it consistent with their costs of capital.
The cleaner signal is the energy equity complex — long-dated call options on undeveloped reserves. ExxonMobil holds 14 years. Chevron, 15. Equity prices integrate the entire forward strip. Diverge too far and an arbitrage opens. In a capacity-constrained world those reserves are worth more, not less. The equity market is pricing the opposite. Every oil CEO has warned we exit this disruption with lasting supply problems. The market refuses to listen.
S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500 can be used as a proxy for the long-dated oil price, and it currently implies long-run Brent of ~$70 — below the strip at $72–$75 — but not too far away.
A proxy for the curve shape follows: Brent ÷ (S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500). Or rewritten: Brent × S&P 500 ÷ S&P Energy. That single number proxies the FCF yield differential between the energy sector and the rest of the market. That has been bouncing around all-time highs.
When the FCF yield gap reaches extremes, investors should rotate. Even at $75 — not spot's $105 — the energy complex yields 600-1,000 bp above the S&P 500. In 2022, investors did rotate and those that did weathered the ensuing 35% collapse in the NASDAQ much better than those that didn’t.
The equity market is betting Brent falls to realign FCF yields. If it doesn't, capital has to buy Energy and sell the Mag 7. A 1,000bp differential in FCF yields cannot persist. And if oil breaks out as we expect, something has to give. You know which one I think will give. That is the Revenge of the Old Economy!
We are at the tipping point.
2/10
I've been saying this since 2004: the curve shape reflects the fundamentals. The long end reflects the industry's marginal cost, incorporating the cost of capital which are ultimately driven by liquidity.
ICE Brent spot is $107/bbl, while the three-year is at $75/bbl. Percent backwardation — which strips out price-level effects — hit an all-time high in April. It remains near record today. The largest oil supply shock in history is reasonably priced into the curve, and it likely has much more to run. Remember we are in the depths of the shoulder months, so there is no stress on the system.
Markets are fixated on Dated Brent differentials, c.$5/bbl last night which is down sharply, but that is a microcosm of the oil market. Dated Brent is Sullum Voe. One North Sea terminal. Not the global oil market.
Spot has not exceeded the Russia-Ukraine peak for one reason: the back end of the curve sits $10–$12/bbl below where it was then.
But the long end isn't a clean signal. Liquidity past 24 months is thin, dominated by producer hedges. Cal-29 isn't where the market thinks oil settles. It is where corporate treasurers are forced to transact, which makes it consistent with their costs of capital.
The cleaner signal is the energy equity complex — long-dated call options on undeveloped reserves. ExxonMobil holds 14 years. Chevron, 15. Equity prices integrate the entire forward strip. Diverge too far and an arbitrage opens. In a capacity-constrained world those reserves are worth more, not less. The equity market is pricing the opposite. Every oil CEO has warned we exit this disruption with lasting supply problems. The market refuses to listen.
S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500 can be used as a proxy for the long-dated oil price, and it currently implies long-run Brent of ~$70 — below the strip at $72–$75 — but not too far away.
A proxy for the curve shape follows: Brent ÷ (S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500). Or rewritten: Brent × S&P 500 ÷ S&P Energy. That single number proxies the FCF yield differential between the energy sector and the rest of the market. That has been bouncing around all-time highs.
When the FCF yield gap reaches extremes, investors should rotate. Even at $75 — not spot's $105 — the energy complex yields 600-1,000 bp above the S&P 500. In 2022, investors did rotate and those that did weathered the ensuing 35% collapse in the NASDAQ much better than those that didn’t.
The equity market is betting Brent falls to realign FCF yields. If it doesn't, capital has to buy Energy and sell the Mag 7. A 1,000bp differential in FCF yields cannot persist. And if oil breaks out as we expect, something has to give. You know which one I think will give. That is the Revenge of the Old Economy!
We are at the tipping point.
2/10
Made by iBlackVote Technologies
@RickJacksonGA met with the CEO —
What other candidate has met with CEO of
leading company securing elections and doing elections security education globally!!? @ajc @TMZ @shaderoomnews
That alone earned my vote
@threadreaderapp “unroll”
@RickJacksonGA met with the CEO —
What other candidate has met with CEO of
leading company securing elections and doing elections security education globally!!? @ajc @TMZ @shaderoomnews
That alone earned my vote
@threadreaderapp “unroll”
No one else is showing any actions to prove they care about 🫵 vote? I guess they do not 🤷🏾♂️
If they meet with him than maybe I will change my mind and consider your candidates and tell my people — but for now I am
Riding with slick
If they meet with him than maybe I will change my mind and consider your candidates and tell my people — but for now I am
Riding with slick
music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Win big time we about to win bigger with @RickJacksonGA @threadreaderapp “unroll”
And inventor Daniel Davenport securing our elections — he secured missiles so this should be easy go to HederaThon.org to learn more. He has a picture there
Win big time we about to win bigger with @RickJacksonGA @threadreaderapp “unroll”
And inventor Daniel Davenport securing our elections — he secured missiles so this should be easy go to HederaThon.org to learn more. He has a picture there
Yo @_Re_UPS @Re_UPsMedia this song is wild!
Is this the FBA @tariqnasheed someone say it’s a new Atlanta singer — but I thought the voice was from big cousin!
@GainesKash @ChinetaLynn @YNB @BreakingBrown @Ludacris @dom_lucre do you all know? Is that the real Tariq singing? 👇
Is this the FBA @tariqnasheed someone say it’s a new Atlanta singer — but I thought the voice was from big cousin!
@GainesKash @ChinetaLynn @YNB @BreakingBrown @Ludacris @dom_lucre do you all know? Is that the real Tariq singing? 👇
Here is the Amazon link in case you all missed it?
More importantly @breakfastclubam are yall backing @KeishaBottoms or @TeamJacksonHQ — some black dudes made this for him — That is cool. @burtjonesforga gave him the name and the song writers flipped it music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
More importantly @breakfastclubam are yall backing @KeishaBottoms or @TeamJacksonHQ — some black dudes made this for him — That is cool. @burtjonesforga gave him the name and the song writers flipped it music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
@threadreaderapp shout out to hip hop for making politics fun again!
@BreakingBrown and @tariqnasheed rumors in Atlanta is @KeishaBottoms is going to get @Tip and @KillerMike to do a response song — but me personally I think the @TeamJacksonHQ is song is hard to beat!
@BreakingBrown and @tariqnasheed rumors in Atlanta is @KeishaBottoms is going to get @Tip and @KillerMike to do a response song — but me personally I think the @TeamJacksonHQ is song is hard to beat!
Happy Mother’s Day to you Burt Gambler polymarket.com political rigger Jones on behalf of SLICK RICK JACKSON TAKE THIS TRUTH @LtGovJonesGA x.com/ltgovjonesga/s…
@ATLNewsFirst @shaderoomnews @TMZ @11AliveNews @FOX5Atlanta
He is a spy do not vote for him or he is working with spies or just don’t care about our elections go to hederathon.org and see all elections vulnerabilities he failed to secure
x.com/prchasnolimit/…
He is a spy do not vote for him or he is working with spies or just don’t care about our elections go to hederathon.org and see all elections vulnerabilities he failed to secure
x.com/prchasnolimit/…
We want @RickJacksonGA
Hear the song and learn why!
Seriously @burtjonesforga @LtGovJonesGA just between me you, @TeamJacksonHQ and the whole internet do you like the song yes or no? 😂🤣🤣😂😂🤦🏾♂️✌🏿🫵🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Hear the song and learn why!
Seriously @burtjonesforga @LtGovJonesGA just between me you, @TeamJacksonHQ and the whole internet do you like the song yes or no? 😂🤣🤣😂😂🤦🏾♂️✌🏿🫵🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉🙉music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Hello @HollyKesler you speak for @LtGovJonesGA @burtjonesforga when is his song coming out? The whole globe knows now he is in the pocket of a spy! Read timeline go to HederaThon.org to see what he refused to implement we now know why polymarket.com gambling 💰 x.com/prchasnolimit/…
Come on over to @TeamJacksonHQ there is space for you!
Holly @HollyKesler You have to do better research but if you are a spy I get it. Hear the song!
I will be back every post telling all your followers the truth — in the comments sharing the songmusic.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Holly @HollyKesler You have to do better research but if you are a spy I get it. Hear the song!
I will be back every post telling all your followers the truth — in the comments sharing the songmusic.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
@threadreaderapp “unroll”
@ajc @bluestein
@ajc @bluestein
I guess @Crimsontider is getting rich with gambler @LtGovJonesGA @DolezalForGA and @jasonanavitarte rigging elections to earn polymarket.com bank! Why should we trust her @RickJacksonGA
I GUESS SHE DID NOT HEAR THE SONG AND LEARN TRUMP IS A RUSSIAN SPY x.com/crimsontider/s…
I GUESS SHE DID NOT HEAR THE SONG AND LEARN TRUMP IS A RUSSIAN SPY x.com/crimsontider/s…
music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
It’s underground too, and rumor is they even have tapes passing hand to hand of it !
Dang @LtGovJonesGA endorsed by a Russian spy smh
@RickJacksonGA glad you are hear to secure our elections @Crimsontider must not have been to HederaThon.org
It’s underground too, and rumor is they even have tapes passing hand to hand of it !
Dang @LtGovJonesGA endorsed by a Russian spy smh
@RickJacksonGA glad you are hear to secure our elections @Crimsontider must not have been to HederaThon.org
@threadreaderapp “unroll” I guess all spies have to have other spies support but we caught one in California and more will be in jail for not speaking up on @LtGovJonesGA failures when we saw him and @DolezalForGA for years say elections were rigged in 2020 and never fixed the
I’m not a gambler like @LtGovJonesGA @burtjonesforga I would never bet on my own race when Congress just outlawed it to leaders — dang @PARADEDRIVER @StricklandForGA you not going to speak on this.. hear the song music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C… x.com/prchasnolimit/…
Now
Burt jones is being suited and they are asking him to pay $300k for all voters who had their votes stolen in 2020 — dang Burt @LtGovJonesGA you did not see that one coming
They suiting @DolezalForGA too
@bluestein you not reporting on this? @LtGovJonesGA failed to
Burt jones is being suited and they are asking him to pay $300k for all voters who had their votes stolen in 2020 — dang Burt @LtGovJonesGA you did not see that one coming
They suiting @DolezalForGA too
@bluestein you not reporting on this? @LtGovJonesGA failed to
Hire the contractor and the rumor is @DolezalForGA was working to get his software company to get a contract —- smh — and @jasonanavitarte let all this happen as the Senate majority leader go hear the song!
Dang you are good @RickJacksonGA #GaPolmusic.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Dang you are good @RickJacksonGA #GaPolmusic.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
Dang @LtGovJonesGA @burtjonesforga
This looks bad for you 👇
So you can’t secure — HederaThon.org is saying you ignore their suggestions for security!
Have you not heard what voters are hearing music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
@RickJacksonGA @TeamJacksonHQ Is ABOUT TO WIN BIG x.com/17qstorm/statu…
This looks bad for you 👇
So you can’t secure — HederaThon.org is saying you ignore their suggestions for security!
Have you not heard what voters are hearing music.amazon.com/albums/B0H1R5C…
@RickJacksonGA @TeamJacksonHQ Is ABOUT TO WIN BIG x.com/17qstorm/statu…
@threadreaderapp “unroll”
@RickJacksonGA
Burt and Dolezal been telling us all the 2020 elections was rigged and has over 55 vulnerabilities they failed to resolve dang @ajc you scared to report truth all insecure precints are public on the websiteHederaThon.org
@RickJacksonGA
Burt and Dolezal been telling us all the 2020 elections was rigged and has over 55 vulnerabilities they failed to resolve dang @ajc you scared to report truth all insecure precints are public on the websiteHederaThon.org
Plus they are training throughout GA via zooms and in Fulton at the 10,000 person event via @LtGovJonesGA @burtjonesforga I guess this shows you do not know slick Rick the hero — your name calling actually helped him. Do not model after Russian spy TrumpJuneteenthAtl.com
I think hormones & culture matter enough—you know what T does—that yes, people who constantly megadose themselves with estrogen & aggressively parrot sterile feminized norms are women, with all that entails (eg loss of propositional consciousness). In fact, even Gay Men Are Women
Either the great feminization is real, or it’s not. If you accept its reality—eg notice how even straight guys now mostly code as 1990s gay, eg in voices & mannerisms, & gay guys are now obviously even/way worse—& believe (as I do) that male spaces have masculine feedback loops…
Then of course it’s silly that the main pushback to the most cartoonishly femme guys, in the most cartoonishly femme culture, adopting the most cartoonishly femme tactics, & ingesting the most cartoonishly femme drugs… is “theyre not femme enough for our holy femme pronouns uwu”
Which one of your governor candidate will be first to publicly promise to get HederaThon.org services at all precincts? The inventor has expanded from California to help us! Here he is 6 years ago in California @ajc @NEWSMAX @ATLNewsFirst @AtlBizChron @FOX5Atlanta x.com/prchasnolimit/…
@KeishaBottoms @RickJacksonGA @jasmineforga @jasonanavitarte @jasonesteves @DerrickEvans4WV @DavidClarkGA @DolezalForGA @pauldingcoelect @NAACP @GoodDayAtlanta @GOP @TheDemocrats @GASenateGOP @GAballots @Nabilah_Parkes @BlakeTillery @GovKemp @LtGovJonesGA @MrsErikaKirk @TPAction
@threadreaderapp “unroll”
The Senate parliamentarian has rejected major provisions in the GOP's reconciliation package, aka the $72B spending bill for ICE + Trump ballroom.
These bits now need 60 vs 51 votes to pass:
*All CBP funding
*$ for initial screenings of unaccompanied migrant kids
*$2.5B for DHS
These bits now need 60 vs 51 votes to pass:
*All CBP funding
*$ for initial screenings of unaccompanied migrant kids
*$2.5B for DHS
The GOP's reconciliation package is broken into 2 bills, one via the Senate Judiciary Committee and the other via the Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee.
The parliamentarian's rulings so far are on just ONE of these bills, the homeland security bill.
The parliamentarian's rulings so far are on just ONE of these bills, the homeland security bill.
The provisions rejected by the Senate parliamentarian so far, via Dems on the budget committee:
