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Having looked at the manifestos, we are drilling down a bit more into the constituencies and regions. We plan to list all the candidates and puzzle out current polling.
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
Glasgow
Constituencies:
The 2024 general election saw Labour push back in the old Glasgow heartland, but disillusionment with UK Labour may contribute to keeping the area solidly SNP. Across the region, Reform has overtaken the Conservatives and their trajectory may result in syphoning votes from Labour rather than the SNP.
Constituencies:
The 2024 general election saw Labour push back in the old Glasgow heartland, but disillusionment with UK Labour may contribute to keeping the area solidly SNP. Across the region, Reform has overtaken the Conservatives and their trajectory may result in syphoning votes from Labour rather than the SNP.
Glasgow Anniesland
Sandesh Gulhane - Conservative and Unionist Party
Eunis Jassemi - Labour Party
Colm Merrick - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Sean O'Hagan - Reform UK
James Douglas Speirs - Liberal Democrats
Anniesland was the seat of the father of the Scottish Parliament, Donald Dewar, but it’s been in the hands of the SNP since 2011. Councillor Merrick is taking the reins from outgoing SNP MSP Bill Kidd. Labour took the roughly equivalent Glasgow West seat in the General election with a massive swing but polls are still indicating an SNP hold.
Sandesh Gulhane - Conservative and Unionist Party
Eunis Jassemi - Labour Party
Colm Merrick - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Sean O'Hagan - Reform UK
James Douglas Speirs - Liberal Democrats
Anniesland was the seat of the father of the Scottish Parliament, Donald Dewar, but it’s been in the hands of the SNP since 2011. Councillor Merrick is taking the reins from outgoing SNP MSP Bill Kidd. Labour took the roughly equivalent Glasgow West seat in the General election with a massive swing but polls are still indicating an SNP hold.
Shortly before 3am on June 4, 1993, a mechanic at Miami airport looked in the wheel well of a DC-8 cargo jet from Bogotá. He saw the body of a teenager, curled in a ball, wearing only a t-shirt and shorts and frozen like an "ice cube."
The first paramedic pronounced him dead. The second found a weak pulse.
Somehow he had just survived 5 hours at 35,000 feet without heat or air pressure.
This should have killed him three different ways.
A🧵& blog post on how he survived.
1/
The first paramedic pronounced him dead. The second found a weak pulse.
Somehow he had just survived 5 hours at 35,000 feet without heat or air pressure.
This should have killed him three different ways.
A🧵& blog post on how he survived.
1/
At 35,000 ft, there are three simultaneous killers:
🫁 Hypoxia: PO₂ is ~37 mmHg, well below the consciousness threshold of ~60 mmHg. Most peopple lose consciousness is 15-30 seconds. Even fully acclimatized Everest summiteers (at 29,000) survive only by driving PaCO₂ to ~8 mmHg through maximal hyperventilation.
🥶 Hypothermia: Ambient temp is –55°C. Accidental hypothermia causes fatal arrhythmia below ~28°C core temp. The coldest recorded accidental hypothermia survivor (13.7°C) lived only because of ECMO.
💥 DCS: Barometric pressure 179 mmHg (23% of sea level). The risk of decompression sickness and nitrogen gas embolism approaches 100% above 30,000 ft without a pressure suit.
No reasonable physiologist, handed these parameters, would predict survival. Yet somehow a 17 year old stow-away survived all three.
2/
🫁 Hypoxia: PO₂ is ~37 mmHg, well below the consciousness threshold of ~60 mmHg. Most peopple lose consciousness is 15-30 seconds. Even fully acclimatized Everest summiteers (at 29,000) survive only by driving PaCO₂ to ~8 mmHg through maximal hyperventilation.
🥶 Hypothermia: Ambient temp is –55°C. Accidental hypothermia causes fatal arrhythmia below ~28°C core temp. The coldest recorded accidental hypothermia survivor (13.7°C) lived only because of ECMO.
💥 DCS: Barometric pressure 179 mmHg (23% of sea level). The risk of decompression sickness and nitrogen gas embolism approaches 100% above 30,000 ft without a pressure suit.
No reasonable physiologist, handed these parameters, would predict survival. Yet somehow a 17 year old stow-away survived all three.
2/
The key is that hypothermia and hypoxia are mutually protective. The mechanism:
1️⃣ Hypoxia disables the thermostat
The preoptic anterior hypothalamus is exquisitely sensitive to hypoxia. As PaO₂ falls during ascent, it loses the ability to defend core temperature. The body becomes poikilothermic: temperature tracks the environment and the stow-away gets cold without shivering.
2️⃣ Hypothermia suppresses VO₂
The Q10 for brain CMRO₂ is 2.2. By the time core temp hits ~27°C (threshold for unconsciousness), brain O₂ consumption is ~45% of baseline. Demand meets the catastrophically low supply.
Cardiac surgeons exploit this in deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA), cooling the brain to 15-18°C to permit operating on a bloodless field.
The stowaway essentially did this to himself!
3/
1️⃣ Hypoxia disables the thermostat
The preoptic anterior hypothalamus is exquisitely sensitive to hypoxia. As PaO₂ falls during ascent, it loses the ability to defend core temperature. The body becomes poikilothermic: temperature tracks the environment and the stow-away gets cold without shivering.
2️⃣ Hypothermia suppresses VO₂
The Q10 for brain CMRO₂ is 2.2. By the time core temp hits ~27°C (threshold for unconsciousness), brain O₂ consumption is ~45% of baseline. Demand meets the catastrophically low supply.
Cardiac surgeons exploit this in deep hypothermic circulatory arrest (DHCA), cooling the brain to 15-18°C to permit operating on a bloodless field.
The stowaway essentially did this to himself!
3/
Having looked at the manifestos, we are drilling down a bit more into the constituencies and regions. We plan to list all the candidates and puzzle out current polling.
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
Edinburgh & Lothian East
Constituencies:
In recent times, the old Lothian region has been largely painted yellow with a splash of gold in Edinburgh West & red in Edinburgh South. This election, the polling is a bit tighter with Labour seeking to regain East Lothian, NE Edinburgh & Central Edinburgh. The Greens & LDs might also throw a curveball in a couple of seats. If you are thinking of voting tactically, there are opportunities.
Constituencies:
In recent times, the old Lothian region has been largely painted yellow with a splash of gold in Edinburgh West & red in Edinburgh South. This election, the polling is a bit tighter with Labour seeking to regain East Lothian, NE Edinburgh & Central Edinburgh. The Greens & LDs might also throw a curveball in a couple of seats. If you are thinking of voting tactically, there are opportunities.
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs
Miles Briggs -Conservative and Unionist Party
Morgwn Davies - Independent
Nigel Douglas - Reform UK
Tim McKay - Liberal Democrats
Paul McLennan - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Martin Whitfield- Labour Party
The old East Lothian seat has lost Tranent and has been relocated from the South Scotland region. Paul McLennan of the SNP won in 2021 with a 1,179 majority over Martin Whitfield. It was previously held by Iain Gray of Labour. YouGov predict that Labour could take this seat from the SNP
Paul McLennan sat on the LGBTI+ CPG which pushed for GRR. He introduced a motion last November with the assistance of Scottish Trans to mark Trans Day of Remembrance (he also blocked us the day after he was elected).
Both @Miles4Lothian (Con) & @_MWhitfield (Lab) were MSPs in the last Parliament.
Miles Briggs -Conservative and Unionist Party
Morgwn Davies - Independent
Nigel Douglas - Reform UK
Tim McKay - Liberal Democrats
Paul McLennan - Scottish National Party (SNP)
Martin Whitfield- Labour Party
The old East Lothian seat has lost Tranent and has been relocated from the South Scotland region. Paul McLennan of the SNP won in 2021 with a 1,179 majority over Martin Whitfield. It was previously held by Iain Gray of Labour. YouGov predict that Labour could take this seat from the SNP
Paul McLennan sat on the LGBTI+ CPG which pushed for GRR. He introduced a motion last November with the assistance of Scottish Trans to mark Trans Day of Remembrance (he also blocked us the day after he was elected).
Both @Miles4Lothian (Con) & @_MWhitfield (Lab) were MSPs in the last Parliament.
Having looked at the manifestos, we are drilling down a bit more into the constituencies and regions. We plan to list all the candidates and puzzle out current polling.
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
We haven't canvased all the candidates, but thought this would be a great way for constituents - or candidates - to let our followers know where they stand. We will do a thread for each region. Please add any feed back/comments to the post relating to your constituency or region. We will share our experiences of candidates if relevant!
We have mainly drawn on the polling from YouGov and More In Common as they have looked at the constituencies. Other polls are available, so feel free to point out any data we missed!
Central Scotland and Lothians West
Constituencies:
Central Scotland is solidly SNP in the constituencies and something seismic would have to occur to shake that. The list will be where the main shake ups happen here.
Constituencies:
Central Scotland is solidly SNP in the constituencies and something seismic would have to occur to shake that. The list will be where the main shake ups happen here.
Airdrie
Euan Blockley - Conservative and Unionist Party
Neil Gray - Scottish National Party (SNP)
John Jo Leckie - British Unionist Party
Suzanne MacLeod - Labour Party
Brendan O'Donnell - Independent
Graham Simpson - Reform UK
Edward John Thornley - Liberal Democrats
Airdrie has been held by the Health Sec Neil Gray since 2011 and that is unlikely to change. YouGov have Lab in second place, but with both SNP & Lab losing voters to Reform. More in Common have Reform pushing the SNP hard in second place. Reform’s Graham Simpson was a member of the last Parliament.
Euan Blockley - Conservative and Unionist Party
Neil Gray - Scottish National Party (SNP)
John Jo Leckie - British Unionist Party
Suzanne MacLeod - Labour Party
Brendan O'Donnell - Independent
Graham Simpson - Reform UK
Edward John Thornley - Liberal Democrats
Airdrie has been held by the Health Sec Neil Gray since 2011 and that is unlikely to change. YouGov have Lab in second place, but with both SNP & Lab losing voters to Reform. More in Common have Reform pushing the SNP hard in second place. Reform’s Graham Simpson was a member of the last Parliament.
🔥🔥🔥Breaking! The top anti ICE organizer in MN involves childcare orgs. I’m not kidding you! 😹 Drumroll, the org is called Isaiah.
A project of ISAIAH is Kids Count on Us, a coalition of community-based childcare providers, teachers, and families.
Yup, the childcare centers being investigated were involved in the anti Ice activities. Is this obstruction of justice?
The Immigrant Defense Network that I reported on with Peggy Flanagan falls under this org. Recall she also works with the US Revolution folks at the Tides 22nd Century Initiative.
How I found this? Doran Schrantz of Isaiah was at the 2023, 22nd Century Initiative conference along with Peggy Flanagan. Well recall this Tides initiative is also running a coup on our president and country. And is now planning the formation of a new US government for after it falls.
Although I couldn’t find more on this, the Isaiah “Ballot Drop Off Groups” interested me.
Anywho, the founder of the 22nd Century Initiative wrote about Isaiah. It’s linked all the way back to the George Floyd movement. And it called up people from across the country. These weren’t just folks from MN.
“When Operation Metro Surge arrived, this infrastructure was already in place. It did not need to be built in conditions of crisis. It needed to be activated. And it was - within days.”
And all business targeting, including Target and Delta etc originated from here too.
“Minneapolis did not improvise its resistance in January. It activated infrastructure that had been built over years.
The primary coordinating organization was ISAIAH, a Minnesota interfaith community organizing network led by co-executive director JaNaé Bates.”
“ISAIAH had spent decades building relationships across faith communities, labor unions, and neighborhood organizations. But ISAIAH was the river, not the only spring. The coalition that made the resistance possible included SEIU Local 26, representing over 8,000 janitors, security officers, and window cleaners; UNITE HERE Local 17, representing more than 6,000 hospitality workers; MARCH, a clergy-led multifaith network that mobilized 700 clergy from across the country with less than seven days’ notice; the Immigrant Defense Network; Peace Catalyst International; Singing Resistance, a group that walked streets singing to prevent ICE from taking people and to let neighbors know they were not alone; neighborhood mutual aid networks; and dozens of individual congregations providing sanctuary, legal observation, and material support.”
@GregoryKBovino you were facing an org that contributes to the US revolution and obstructs justice.
A project of ISAIAH is Kids Count on Us, a coalition of community-based childcare providers, teachers, and families.
Yup, the childcare centers being investigated were involved in the anti Ice activities. Is this obstruction of justice?
The Immigrant Defense Network that I reported on with Peggy Flanagan falls under this org. Recall she also works with the US Revolution folks at the Tides 22nd Century Initiative.
How I found this? Doran Schrantz of Isaiah was at the 2023, 22nd Century Initiative conference along with Peggy Flanagan. Well recall this Tides initiative is also running a coup on our president and country. And is now planning the formation of a new US government for after it falls.
Although I couldn’t find more on this, the Isaiah “Ballot Drop Off Groups” interested me.
Anywho, the founder of the 22nd Century Initiative wrote about Isaiah. It’s linked all the way back to the George Floyd movement. And it called up people from across the country. These weren’t just folks from MN.
“When Operation Metro Surge arrived, this infrastructure was already in place. It did not need to be built in conditions of crisis. It needed to be activated. And it was - within days.”
And all business targeting, including Target and Delta etc originated from here too.
“Minneapolis did not improvise its resistance in January. It activated infrastructure that had been built over years.
The primary coordinating organization was ISAIAH, a Minnesota interfaith community organizing network led by co-executive director JaNaé Bates.”
“ISAIAH had spent decades building relationships across faith communities, labor unions, and neighborhood organizations. But ISAIAH was the river, not the only spring. The coalition that made the resistance possible included SEIU Local 26, representing over 8,000 janitors, security officers, and window cleaners; UNITE HERE Local 17, representing more than 6,000 hospitality workers; MARCH, a clergy-led multifaith network that mobilized 700 clergy from across the country with less than seven days’ notice; the Immigrant Defense Network; Peace Catalyst International; Singing Resistance, a group that walked streets singing to prevent ICE from taking people and to let neighbors know they were not alone; neighborhood mutual aid networks; and dozens of individual congregations providing sanctuary, legal observation, and material support.”
@GregoryKBovino you were facing an org that contributes to the US revolution and obstructs justice.
The org that coordinated the anti ICE activities in MN, Isaiah, is involved with the Tides 22nd Century Initiative that is running a coup upon our country and president. And is planning a new USA government.
Happy reading @GregoryKBovino
Happy reading @GregoryKBovino
Let’s get some names out of the way. Those present at the Tides 22nd Century Initiative conference in 2023 included:
🔹Peggy Flanagan - MN lieutenant governor
🔹Doran schrantz - Isaiah
🔹Rinku Sen, Narrative Initiative
🔹 Maria Stephan - horizons project
🔹Plus more
drive.google.com/drive/mobile/f…
🔹Peggy Flanagan - MN lieutenant governor
🔹Doran schrantz - Isaiah
🔹Rinku Sen, Narrative Initiative
🔹 Maria Stephan - horizons project
🔹Plus more
drive.google.com/drive/mobile/f…
$OMC path to $11/sh 2026(e) FCF
Pre-acquisition $OMC was doing ~$1,500MM FCF and $IPG ~$1,000
= $2,500 - 120 from divestitures
$2,380
2026(e) cost synergies: $900
Cost to get savings: $250
= $650 * 60% to FCF = $390
$2,380 + $390 = $2,770
EOY 2026 s/o: 256.6MM
= $10.80/sh
Pre-acquisition $OMC was doing ~$1,500MM FCF and $IPG ~$1,000
= $2,500 - 120 from divestitures
$2,380
2026(e) cost synergies: $900
Cost to get savings: $250
= $650 * 60% to FCF = $390
$2,380 + $390 = $2,770
EOY 2026 s/o: 256.6MM
= $10.80/sh
Or take combined OMC + IPG Adj. EBITDA reported in 2025 $OMC presentation of $4,061.7MM and back out ITDA — you’ll get ~$2,440MM FCF
Or read the S-4 where they have (un)levered FCF estimates (higher estimates than we’re using here)
Or read the S-4 where they have (un)levered FCF estimates (higher estimates than we’re using here)
Or start at $23,100.9MM combined rev est net of planned dispositions.
15% ebitda margin
= $3,465 EBITDA - $392.7 D&A (1.7% of rev) = $3,072.3 - $235 int exp = $2,837 * 26% effective tax rate = $2,100 excl synergies
$OMC 2028(e) FCF: $3,000-3,280MM
@ 236.5MM s/o = 5.5-6x FCF
15% ebitda margin
= $3,465 EBITDA - $392.7 D&A (1.7% of rev) = $3,072.3 - $235 int exp = $2,837 * 26% effective tax rate = $2,100 excl synergies
$OMC 2028(e) FCF: $3,000-3,280MM
@ 236.5MM s/o = 5.5-6x FCF
I ran comms for Google during Oracle v. Google in 2012, tech's last big trial of the century. Watching Musk v. Altman has me flashing back hard.
Fifteen observations on the trial comms war so far, in no particular order:
Fifteen observations on the trial comms war so far, in no particular order:
1. Vast asymmetry between the parties. Elon has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sam et al are in the opposite position. It means Elon can take many more risks with trial and comms strategy, pressing the line of what'll piss off the judge.
2. Notable that Elon's lead attorney is Marc Toberoff, a Hollywood IP litigator introduced to him by best bud Ari Emanuel. Tells you everything about how Team Elon is approaching this. Not as a contract case, but as a battle over the rightful ownership of something iconic in culture.
This is crazy.
Imagine a hole the size of a football field that is 700 feet deep.
Now fill it up with wastewater, and remove a tablespoon.
That was our starting material for this study.
1/
Imagine a hole the size of a football field that is 700 feet deep.
Now fill it up with wastewater, and remove a tablespoon.
That was our starting material for this study.
1/
Using an untargeted sequencing approach, we were not only able to identify a single measles patient from that sample, but we were able to confirm that the sequence of the virus specifically matched the virus from that patient.
2/
evidence.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
2/
evidence.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…
Kind of mind boggling, isn’t it?
3/3
3/3
Profound insights by Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:
Today, the exchange rate in tactical combat exceeds 100:1. One dollar invested in drones translates into more than $100 in Russian losses. 1/15
Today, the exchange rate in tactical combat exceeds 100:1. One dollar invested in drones translates into more than $100 in Russian losses. 1/15
USF spend approximately $40 million per month on drones while inflicting around $4 billion in damage on the enemy — a ratio of roughly 1:100. Over a 10-month period, the cost of eliminating a single Russian infantryman is estimated at about $882. 2/15
In 10 months, USF has surpassed 85,000 confirmed enemy personnel eliminated. It is a significant portion of the enemy’s army, destroyed using systems made of plastic and metal costing from $300 to a few thousand dollars. 3/15
How do people seek guidance from Claude?
We looked at 1M conversations to understand what questions people ask, how Claude responds, and where it slips into sycophancy. We used what we found to improve how we trained Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview.
anthropic.com/research/claud…
We looked at 1M conversations to understand what questions people ask, how Claude responds, and where it slips into sycophancy. We used what we found to improve how we trained Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview.
anthropic.com/research/claud…
About 6% of all conversations are people asking Claude for personal guidance—whether to take a job, how to handle a conflict, if they should move.
Over 75% of these conversations fell into four domains: health & wellness, career, relationships, and personal finance.
Over 75% of these conversations fell into four domains: health & wellness, career, relationships, and personal finance.
Claude mostly avoids sycophancy when giving guidance—it shows up in just 9% of conversations.
But the rate is particularly high in conversations on spirituality and relationship guidance.
But the rate is particularly high in conversations on spirituality and relationship guidance.
Did You Know that a Black enslaved man was Responsible for Saving America from a SmallPox Epidemic
Onesimus (potrait unavailable) introduced the idea of vaccination based upon the African practice of inoculation in Libya,to help mitigate spread of smallpox
💉THREAD💉
Onesimus (potrait unavailable) introduced the idea of vaccination based upon the African practice of inoculation in Libya,to help mitigate spread of smallpox
💉THREAD💉
Onesimus was an enslaved African who introduced the concept of inoculation to America and helped save hundreds of Bostonians from smallpox in 1721. But his role has hardly been told.
It began in 1716. When asked by his owner, prominent Puritan minister Cotton Mather, about a scar on his forearm, Onesimus described the basics of smallpox inoculation - a practice that was common Africa (and Asia) but relatively unknown in the American colonies.
