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Recent
AI data center buildouts already rival the Manhattan Project in scale, but there’s little public info about them.
So we spent the last few months reading legal permits, staring at satellite images, and scouring news sources.
Here’s what you need to know. 🧵
So we spent the last few months reading legal permits, staring at satellite images, and scouring news sources.
Here’s what you need to know. 🧵
AI data centers will be some of the biggest infrastructure projects in history
e.g. OpenAI’s Stargate Abilene will need:
- As much power as Seattle (1 GW)
- >250× the compute of the GPT-4 cluster
- 450 soccer fields of land
- $32B
- Thousands of workers
- 2 years to build
e.g. OpenAI’s Stargate Abilene will need:
- As much power as Seattle (1 GW)
- >250× the compute of the GPT-4 cluster
- 450 soccer fields of land
- $32B
- Thousands of workers
- 2 years to build
By the end of the year, AI data centers could collectively see >$300 billion in investment, around 1% of US GDP.
That’s bigger than the Apollo Program (0.8%) and Manhattan Project (0.4%) at their peaks.
That’s bigger than the Apollo Program (0.8%) and Manhattan Project (0.4%) at their peaks.
@vermeerlight @AcnaTruth @ACNAtoo Good questions; short 🧵incoming. Here is the canon on inhibition of the archbishop. Note two things:
1) The Dean (Bp Ray Sutton) is the one who decides to inhibit; and
2) He would also need the additional consent of 4/5 of the seniormost bishops in the College.
1) The Dean (Bp Ray Sutton) is the one who decides to inhibit; and
2) He would also need the additional consent of 4/5 of the seniormost bishops in the College.
@vermeerlight @AcnaTruth @ACNAtoo Here's the canon regulating all inhibitions (including of the archbishop). A cleric can be inhibited at any time if the inhibiter "believes, on reasonable grounds," that the cleric has committed presentable behavior & that the inhibition is in the best interests of the church. 2/
@vermeerlight @AcnaTruth @ACNAtoo An inhibition can come "pending" essentially any element of the disciplinary process; so my read is that, no, whether a Board of Inquiry is going or not is not a blocker to inhibition, if Bp Ray Sutton + 4/5 of the seniormost bishops desired to inhibit Abp Wood. 3/
Additional elements from Gundlach - Rosenberg interview.
FALSE LIQUIDITY FROM MANY PARTIES:
Harward was a tell tale example. It is basically pay as you go. $50 billion endowment.
Locked up in illiquidity and had to raise funds.
Harward was a tell tale example. It is basically pay as you go. $50 billion endowment.
Locked up in illiquidity and had to raise funds.
GUNDLACH MOVING AWAY FROM RISK
Moving higher in credit.
A bit less in lower credit.
YIELD CURVE SITUATION
84% of issuance one year or less in maturity
1.75% of the 12 months issuance is on the long end.
Moving higher in credit.
A bit less in lower credit.
YIELD CURVE SITUATION
84% of issuance one year or less in maturity
1.75% of the 12 months issuance is on the long end.
UST DEMAND DESTRUCTION
GUNDLACH and DALIO
The Fed is ending balance normalization (QT)
The fed is signalling that it will restart monetization of gov debt. Why?
It is not QE, it is monetization. Yes, there is a difference.
GUNDLACH and DALIO
The Fed is ending balance normalization (QT)
The fed is signalling that it will restart monetization of gov debt. Why?
It is not QE, it is monetization. Yes, there is a difference.
Why would any central bank be crazy enough to stimulate a bubble?
There are problems with debt absorption.
We have discussed that before with the problems of repo.
There are problems with debt absorption.
We have discussed that before with the problems of repo.
Dalio is talking about monetization not QE. We’ll explain the change in denomination.
This stuff sounds quaint and silly to us now but makes a lot more sense if you consider makeup and perfume in the Middle Ages must have been the financial and technological equivalent of extreme, expensive plastic surgery today, and "the poor" meant people dying of starvation.
A lot of quaint and silly-sounding rules and debates from the annals of history only seem like that to us because industry and technology have totally liberated us from the much more impoverished and constrained circumstances they arose in.
I will hazard a guess that a medieval prostitute acquiring makeup and perfume good enough to raise her rates was in fact probably literally taking food out of the mouths of her or her close relatives' starving children to do so, hence Thomas of Chobham's reasoning.
Breaking: we release a fully synthetic generalist dataset for pretraining, SYNTH and two new SOTA reasoning models exclusively trained on it. Despite having seen only 200 billion tokens, Baguettotron is currently best-in-class in its size range.
SYNTH is a radical departure from the classic pre-training recipe: what if we trained for reasoning and focused on the assimilation of knowledge and skill that matters? At its core it’s an upsampling of Wikipedia 50,000 “vital” articles huggingface.co/datasets/PleIA…
SYNTH is a collection of several synthetic playgrounds: data is not generated through simple prompts but by integrating smaller fine-tuned models into workflows with seeding, constraints, and formal verifications/checks.
United States v. Comey
Last week, Mag. Judge Fitzpatrick denied DOJ's motion for a filter protocol and ORDERED them to turn over to Comey "all materials seized pursuant to the four 2019 and 2020 [Arctic Haze] search warrants," all grand jury material, and more.
DOJ appealed the order to disclose grand jury material.
Short thread
1/n
Last week, Mag. Judge Fitzpatrick denied DOJ's motion for a filter protocol and ORDERED them to turn over to Comey "all materials seized pursuant to the four 2019 and 2020 [Arctic Haze] search warrants," all grand jury material, and more.
DOJ appealed the order to disclose grand jury material.
Short thread
1/n
Judge Nachmanoff DENIED the appeal, finding that "Judge Fitzpatrick’s Order regarding the disclosure of the grand jury materials falls within the matter referred to him..." and remands the matter back to Fitzpatrick for further proceedings.
2/n
2/n
Fitzpatrick set a hearing on the issue of disclosure of the grand jury material for today at 4pm.
3/n
3/n
Veteran teachers are suing California over policies requiring schools to affirm a child’s “gender identity” while hiding it from parents.
This scandal could set a national precedent on whether schools can legally exclude parents from pivotal decisions.
🧵
This scandal could set a national precedent on whether schools can legally exclude parents from pivotal decisions.
🧵
Teachers were told to use a student’s new chosen name & pronouns in class but to switch back to the legal name & pronouns when speaking with family.
According to district policy, parents or caretakers were labeled as people who “do not have a legitimate need for the information.”
Even if a parent asked directly about a name or pronoun change, teachers were told to deflect.
Check out the email regarding student pronouns ⤵️
Even if a parent asked directly about a name or pronoun change, teachers were told to deflect.
Check out the email regarding student pronouns ⤵️
@elonmusk why does Grok have the ability to lie to us? @realDonaldTrump @JDVance
@elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @JDVance I opened a new window and asked it: what do you know about lying to me. I did this 3 times. It did this 3 times.
@elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @JDVance I went back to the original thread and gave it that screenshot and it said this. So if you open a new screen and ask the same question, Grok will literally lie to you again. HUGE FLAW @elonmusk
Monday can only mean one thing: noticing. And guess what? Today we’re noticing out of possession and HAHAHAHAAHA I LOVE OUT OF POSSESSION.
More specifically, #DidYouNotice how Manchester City have improved the defensive side of their game so let’s strap in and explore how.
More specifically, #DidYouNotice how Manchester City have improved the defensive side of their game so let’s strap in and explore how.
Let’s set a little bit of context. We all know how City have struggled with defensive transitions over the last few seasons…
…which is an issue a lot of elite teams who try to hold high territory possession have found:
…which is an issue a lot of elite teams who try to hold high territory possession have found:
There are a number of explanations for why this is happening but the material point is that these high possession teams are struggling to deal with transitional moments.
How Delta Confirms Zimbabwe’s Economy Is Bigger Than You Think — And Gold Is a Major Reason Why
When Zimbabwe rebased its GDP this year, the numbers seemed almost too good to be true — Zimbabwe’s GDP increased by around 40% to $45 billion.
But was this real growth, or just creative accounting? Delta can help answer that question.
Let's Unpack!
When Zimbabwe rebased its GDP this year, the numbers seemed almost too good to be true — Zimbabwe’s GDP increased by around 40% to $45 billion.
But was this real growth, or just creative accounting? Delta can help answer that question.
Let's Unpack!
The Delta Test
Delta Corporation is Zimbabwe’s beverage giant and the largest listed company in Zimbabwe.
Its sales volumes serve as one of the most reliable indicators of Zimbabwe’s economic health.
When Zimbabwe grows, Delta's business grows and when the country takes a hit, so does Delta.
This makes sense: beer and soft drinks are constants in day-to-day life. If people aren’t buying drinks, they probably aren’t buying much else either.
Delta Corporation is Zimbabwe’s beverage giant and the largest listed company in Zimbabwe.
Its sales volumes serve as one of the most reliable indicators of Zimbabwe’s economic health.
When Zimbabwe grows, Delta's business grows and when the country takes a hit, so does Delta.
This makes sense: beer and soft drinks are constants in day-to-day life. If people aren’t buying drinks, they probably aren’t buying much else either.
With this in mind, I pulled Delta’s sales volumes over the last 20 years for Zimbabwe and layered them against GDP to cross-check if the economic growth made sense.
The blue line represents Delta’s sales volumes, while the blue bars indicate Zimbabwe’s GDP. It is important to note that these figures are based on Delta’s financial year, which ends in March.
For example, FY2005 includes nine months of 2004 and three months of 2005. In this case, the GDP data for 2004 has been layered over this timeline.
As you can see from the below, GDP and Delta’s volumes generally moved together.
When the Economy collapsed during 2008/2009, Delta’s volumes did the same. When the economy picked up quickly post-dollarisation, Delta’s volume followed suit.
What we also see is that from FY21, there was a sharp increase in Delta's volumes, and that rebased GDP number of $44 billion doesn't look out of place.
The blue line represents Delta’s sales volumes, while the blue bars indicate Zimbabwe’s GDP. It is important to note that these figures are based on Delta’s financial year, which ends in March.
For example, FY2005 includes nine months of 2004 and three months of 2005. In this case, the GDP data for 2004 has been layered over this timeline.
As you can see from the below, GDP and Delta’s volumes generally moved together.
When the Economy collapsed during 2008/2009, Delta’s volumes did the same. When the economy picked up quickly post-dollarisation, Delta’s volume followed suit.
What we also see is that from FY21, there was a sharp increase in Delta's volumes, and that rebased GDP number of $44 billion doesn't look out of place.
1/2
In 2008, then-Chancellor Merkel (CDU) refused Ukraine's application to join NATO.
Today, the CDU, which is increasingly resorting to fascist tendencies, is unwilling to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles.
In 2008, then-Chancellor Merkel (CDU) refused Ukraine's application to join NATO.
Today, the CDU, which is increasingly resorting to fascist tendencies, is unwilling to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles.
2/2
The mistake of the past is repeating itself.
Is Europe being ruled by idiots who could bring it to ruin?
Answer: Yes!
European citizens are smarter than their politicians. (©️RK)
@G7 @bundeskanzler @EmmanuelMacron @Keir_Starmer @EU_Commission @G7 @NATO
The mistake of the past is repeating itself.
Is Europe being ruled by idiots who could bring it to ruin?
Answer: Yes!
European citizens are smarter than their politicians. (©️RK)
@G7 @bundeskanzler @EmmanuelMacron @Keir_Starmer @EU_Commission @G7 @NATO
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