“The Forgotten Part of the Contest:
Army Logistics In The Pacific”

My latest article with Carmelia Scott-Skillern @WarOnTheRocks


With some very blunt talk for our field...warontherocks.com/2024/04/the-fo… "As Gen. Omar Bradley is credited as saying, “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” ...Unfortunately, when it comes to how the American defense community plans for and talks about the future of competition and conflict in the Pacific, it isn’t measuring up"

In honor of all the policy thinktanks and media trying to leverage the #Oppenheimer movie for their own purposes , I provide you with a thread of #BarbieTheMovie fighting back.

In it, I substitute "Barbie" into your texts...Let's see what fun we can have: The Aspen Barbie Forum is the premier Barbie policy conference in the United States. Presented by the Barbie Strategy Group, It has provided a nonpartisan public venue for domestic and global leaders to discuss the key Barbie policy issues of the day for the past 14 years.

Arms Control and AI:
What "Leaders Need to Know":

(a thread, sharing my response to a question from a senior leader on it) Almost every new tech in war, whether the battleship to nuclear weapons, has created new questions of their use and abuse, often leading to arms control discussions. So we should not be surprised to see this happen with AI and robotics.

Imagine if they were actually serious about this 1 door nonsense talking point, as the Republican policy solution for school shootings.

Wouldn’t it be an utter indictment of the Heritage Foundation that they didn’t propose something so simple as that, for decades? IE, if you actually believe that idea, you should be angry at all the needless dead children because your thinktanks didn’t think of it and failed your red state leaders. It would be a massive Intelligence failure and question wasted millions of dollars.

Time for Hard Talk as a Parent + Policy Wonk: (🧵)

Studies show today's generation of kids has highest levels of depression and sadness.

And, yet, of the issues causing them fear+angst, it is hard to think of any the @GOP is actively trying to make better.

https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1529788240252772359

Talk to them. Ask them their fears and concerns.
They will bring up threats like School Shootings, Climate Change, and the Pandemic. They will also talk about behavioral/social problems like Racism, Social Media Harassment, and Bullying.

The counter narrative soon to below:
'If you don't like being assigned to an abortion ban state, tough. No one made you join the military, just like no one 'makes' you get pregnant. Handle your business, follow the state law, or leave."

Responses:
1) Awesome to value "choice"

https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1521647014097870848

2) Way to help recruiting and retention, in an era of unprecedented unemployment, Fred Flintstone.
3) This legal change effects just the soldier who signed up, but their spouse, partner, even daughter.

🧵The list of military bases, by state, where abortion will be illegal immediately or very quickly:

Arkansas:
Joseph Robinson Army Base in North Little Rock, AR
Fort Chaffee Army Base in Fort Smith, AR
Pine Bluff Arsenal Army Base in Jefferson County, AR

https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1521619141916082177

Little Rock Air Force Base in Jacksonville, AR

Timely to below, I was asked at event today, what are warnings I've given that I regret most that leaders in government ignored?

My 3 answers:
1) Iraq War (to Bush II NSC members): that it would be extended, more casualties than predicting, and I didn't see...

https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1521472202918572032

and I didn't why had to be right now with Afghanistan still ongoing

2) Right-wing domestic extremism, terrorism, and mass killings (to Trump NSC --yes, LOL in retrospect): That it was far worse trend than wanted to see, that needed resources/intel to be able to respond better

🧵 Reaction, writing as a national security analyst, with a bit of a reputation as a ”futurist”:

I have to share that I am really shook by what the latest Supreme Court news heralds, from the ruling itself to the forces and decisions that led to it, to what happens next... I was supposed to work this morning on a future scenario of instability and conflict in another country over the next generation. But I am finding it hard to concentrate given thoughts on what happens in our own democracy and violence trends in that same time period.

I still can’t get over the scale of information so many journalists held back about Trump and January 6 for their books.

Oh and don’t try the “I didn’t confirm it until now.”

We are not children, gullibly thinking confirmations magically/coincidentally happen book release week

https://twitter.com/peterwsinger/status/1517597359114498051

Indeed, just due to the book industry publication/editing/marketing process, they sat on the important news at least 6-10 months from when they wrote it into draft to the book release, let alone from when they actually learned the information but held back reporting it.

Your regular reminder that Heritage is no longer a policy thinktank peer.

https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/1515697397879422977

Oh, was that impolite to say out loud in wonk land?

Organizations that literally plan and organize how to suppress voting and ban books are impolite to our democracy.

Russian military behind hack of satellite communication devices in Ukraine at war’s outset
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

For those not keeping track or claiming no cyber matters, the Ukraine war has now seen two historic lines crossed in conflict +cybersecurity: 1) cross of cyber and space conflict, which is not just crossing domains (and domains that humans never fought in past conventional conflicts), but also makes real questions of formerly theoretic questions of when wars start.

To the "We need to focus on China" team:

A thread:

1) It is cute when you act like you discovered the concept of China as a strategic competitor 2) Competing with China means competing not just in Asia, but in other regions too where they seek to build their power and influence elsewhere.

Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs the supposed Russian masters of it?

A thread 🧵 of 10 persuasion messaging themes working for them: 1) Pre-Bunking
In the past, Russia was essentially pushing against an open door.
This time, a network style coalition got ahead of it and preempted and pre-bunked the Russian goal of justifying a long planned invasion as an emergency response.

Why are we not seeing many drones in UKR war?
A few quick answers:
1) Equipment/Acquisitions: Neither side has woven significant numbers of armed UAS into their armies yet in major way
2) Air Defenses: Both have em, still active, all the way down to MANPADS. Also both sides still flying fighters. Back to above, the drones they do have are highly vulnerable to that. Gotta take down both to get the value of current generation of slow UAS

The Trump "social network" terms of service are something to behold.

A sampling: Don't tell the boss...

Many of my national security colleagues are filled with deep angst this week over what the Afghan withdrawal means for the future of US power.

I feel the same way, but in looking at the events of 2021 at home. The insurrection of January 6, a major political party turning on science to effectively aid and abet a deadly pandemic, and now Supreme Court going to bizarre lengths to ignore the Constitution for a minority political ideology (private citizen bounty hunting abortion…what?)

It is week 2 of our Cybersecurity Threats and Trends course @Future_of_War @asu

This week is cybercrime... @Future_of_War @ASU Discussion questions:
What are the various forms of Cybercrime?
What key issues do megabreaches present, not just to the victim, but the wider ecosystem?
Explain the issues presented by Ransomware.
Would you pay it or not?
....

So many policy wonks and Senators want to talk things like number of Navy ships,
but this is as much or more of a weakness in our strategic competition with China

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1416412377256534016

1) Our science advantage was utterly crucial advantage in every aspect (military, economic, cultural etc) of Cold War. Undermined now
2) a major party divorcing from basic science (and thus reality) undermines every policy, from weapons to energy to climate to health to cyber etc

Excited to share with you a major new report from myself and a team of education+ technology experts on what we can do about mis/disinfo:

Teaching Cyber Citizenship:

Bridging Education and National Security to Build Resilience to New Online Threats
newamerica.org/education-poli… The online world has been a crucial tool for education and connection, especially during the pandemic. But it has also spread a new kind of threat. Viral misinformation, deliberately spread disinformation, conspiracy theories, and hate speech run rampant.

Some thoughts on yet another right wing online/media mob going after military service member: 1) Always important to identify the players and their history. Today's episode is brought Breitbart's Pentagon reporter, elevating the fellow who helped bring you Pizzagate and multiple other conspiracy theories, as well as has repeatedly elevated Russian info ops