1/ Reports on token ownership concentration and DeFi transaction volume often come to incorrect conclusions when centralized exchange hot wallets are involved. Here’s some background on how exchanges typically operate these wallets:
2/ A centralized exchange functions as the custodian for all customer assets. Trades between two counterparties can occur and settle instantaneously by using an internal ledger, only interfacing back with blockchains when customers deposit and withdraw.
3/ To simplify the operational aspect of deposits and withdrawals, centralized exchanges often accumulate customer tokens into a single or small number of wallets, rather than requiring a separate on-chain wallet per customer (as would be the case with a decentralized exchange).
4/ If a blockchain’s protocol supports adding a memo to deposit transactions such that the exchange can identify the customer from the deposit payload, then the customers can deposit directly into the exchange’s hot wallet.
5/ If not, then often exchanges will provide a unique wallet for the customer to deposit into, and then will sweep the customer funds into an exchange hot wallet for aggregation, soon after the deposit occurs.
6/ Then all withdrawals will be just transactions with the exchange hot wallet as sender, regardless of which customer it came from. And trades between customers on the platform are just internal database operations.
7/ Lack of knowledge of this operational setup leads to frequent mischaracterizations of on-chain data. Some typical examples of the forms these mischaracterizations take:
8/ -Claims that most tokens are held by only a few “whales”
-Claims that an “exchange is buying/selling tokens”
-Claims that one of these exchange wallets has over-centralized a DeFi governance protocol
9/ If these claims are based on assumptions that don’t properly account for how exchange hot wallets work, they’re most likely untrue.
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1/ Some things that could slow market contagion and quicken recovery:
-clarity from US regulators
-more robust US crypto futures and options markets
-US spot crypto ETFs
2/ Regulatory clarity for US crypto exchanges and other digital asset providers would instill confidence for US institutional investors to continue betting on the long term viability of the assets.
3/ More robust crypto futures and options markets in the US would also help bring in institutional capital, dampen volatility by giving access to capital efficient hedging, and make it easier for firms to gain exposure to the asset class without needing to handle spot.
1/ Observations from ftx.com/exchange-stats on a large market-down event such as the last 24 hours:
2/ Retail were net sellers, institutions were net buyers, *but the institutional buy-vs-sell imbalance was negligible, not statistically significantly different from normal days.*
3/ In general institutions are market making fairly evenly on both sides on FTX.
1/ Every interview I've watched (or done) recently includes questions about apparent correlations between stocks and crypto, usually amid discussion of whether crypto is (1) a good inflation hedge, (2) a portfolio diversifier, (3) an independent store of value.
2/ Asset correlations can arise from a variety of underlying phenomena. Correlations are not static, and may or may not be intrinsic to properties of the asset themselves. I think about correlations falling into one of three main categories:
3/ (a) arbitrage – two assets are correlated because there exists a fungible relationship between them. E.g., the returns of an ADR (e.g. NOK on NYSE) are correlated with the returns of its underlying ordinary shares (NOK1V in Helsinki) because you can convert one into the other.
1/ FTX US has no imminent plans to propose physically settling agricultural products under our margin model. ft.com/content/295a66…
2/ In a hypothetical future in which we did, hedgers such as the agricultural groups described in this article could continue using FCMs under the traditional model on existing CCPs if they prefer.
3/ Furthermore, in a hypothetical future in which physically settled commodities trade on FTX US, we could easily match trading schedules for those products with the contracts and spot markets that currently trade.
2/ If one of the main purposes of a financial market is to allow for the expression and transfer of risk, the presence of derivatives is critical.
3/ Crypto markets in the US will not reach the level of advancement, maturity, or safety seen in equity or bond markets without derivatives; without them the tools for position expression and risk management will remain very limited.