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Never has the self-suicide of #Syria's mainstream opposition been more clear than in recent days.

#Afrin was really bad, but this NE incursion (its manner; its consequences etc.) is truly beyond the pale -- in truth, what we've witnessed is a #Turkish campaign through-&-through.

It's clear now that the Dec 2016 loss of #Aleppo - in large part due to #Turkey selling it out to #Russia - was *the* turning point.

Opposition factions lost any sense of autonomy of action & over the years that followed, everyone but #JFS-#HTS & #AlQaeda existed *for* #Ankara.

An #American presence in NE #Syria kept at least some of this #Turkish ambition under wraps (just ), but #Trump's naive (or malicious?) "green light" decision after speaking with #Erdogan let everything loose.

Only now are we seeing the consequences -- and they're not yet clear.

Read 9 tweets

Hal Marshall

@HalMarshall2309

"[W]hat’s remarkable about Warren’s rise, and her durability, is that it’s coming in the face of considerable headwinds blowing within the Democratic electorate." vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/e…

"According to new findings from the progressive research firm Avalanche on the subject of 'electability,' Democrats are haunted by the state of the country under Donald Trump and deeply worried about their ability to beat him next year with a woman on top of the ticket.

"Avalanche found that 53% of likely Democratic primary voters say it is 'Harder' or 'Much Harder' for a female candidate to defeat Trump. But in spite of those worries, Warren is also now perceived as more electable than she was in June ... .

Read 6 tweets

McJulie is totally a witch

@mcjulie

https://twitter.com/dliebelson/status/1183820187360989185

I wanted to talk about this terrible chart, and the concept of "bias" and how it's misused, often deliberately.

https://twitter.com/dliebelson/status/1183820187360989185

We have a cultural tendency to think of a LACK of bias as a positive quality -- a quality of being objectively measured & balanced, where everything is "on the one hand... but on the other hand..."

Like blind Justice, holding up her scales.

But not every idea has an ideal balance point somewhere in the middle. "Nazis: good or bad?" should have only one answer, BAD, expressed in the strongest possible terms.

Read 12 tweets

Adam W Gaffney

@awgaffney

The proportion of health spending going to health insurance company profits is basically irrelevant to the question of whether a fragmented and privatized healthcare financing *system*, centered around a central role for private insurance, causes waste, death, and misery.

By way of analogy, let's say we started financing public schools through insurance companies instead of through taxes. Let's say that some kids, whose parents couldn't afford "education insurance," just didn't go to school,

While other kids had "high deductible" education insurance that meant rationing their interactions with teachers, skipping after school programs, etc. etc.

And other kids' families wound up with giant bills if they lived and went to a nearby school that was not in-network!

Read 12 tweets

Tim Bartik

@TimBartik

My new book is being released today, "Making Sense of Incentives: Taming Business Incentives to Promote Prosperity". This book summarizes in 120 pp, for a broad audience, much of my research on incentives. The pdf is available for free download via: upjohn.org/research-highl…

The book summarizes some of the problematic facts about incentives: they've tripled since 1990, they tend to disproportionately go to the largest corporations, & they are not targeted at distressed areas.

I also try to dispel myths about incentives. Contrary to these myths, incentives only tip a minority of location decisions, and do not pay for themselves with fiscal benefits.

Read 16 tweets

tolu ogunlesi

@toluogunlesi

”Seplat Petroleum Development Co. agreed to buy Eland Oil & Gas Plc, adding resources in Nigeria as it seeks to become the country’s biggest independent exploration and production company.” google.com/amp/s/www.bloo…

“The acquisition of Eland, whose main asset is the OML 40 license in the Niger Delta, is set to boost Seplat’s production to 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, a jump of as much as 30% from 2019 guidance.”

“While it’ll still trailing top domestic rival Aiteo Eastern E&P Co., the deal highlights how the retreat of some oil majors in recent years is allowing independent players to grow.”

Read 4 tweets

Anand Giridharadas

@AnandWrites

It is possible to believe that Trump illegally ordered an investigation into the Bidens AND that Hunter Biden represents a tradition of cashing in on public service that is troubling.

nytimes.com/2019/10/15/us/…

In George Packer’s THE UNWINDING, one character, a lobbyist and former “Biden guy,” is the source of this observation.

“Selling out” became “cashing in.”

That we are governed by a kleptocratic tyrant doesn’t make it less true that “cash-in” culture has infected Democrats, too.

As a country, we are like your friend who has dated so many awful guys that they forget they could date a good guy.

Yes, Trump’s quid pro quo was illegal.

But it’s also possible to elect people who don’t have shady foreign entanglements, dubious foundations, etc.

Read 4 tweets

Lux 📝 Alptraum, A Friend To The Internet

@LuxAlptraum

As we continue to talk about “new” and “non-toxic” masculinity, it is worth mentioning that, while masculinity’s obsession with avoiding a feminine aesthetic is a symptom of its sickness, masculinity that embraces superficial femininity is not automatically healthy.

A man who wears makeup and dresses can still be a rapist; indeed, the subversion of the aesthetics of masculinity can be used as a tool to reassert one’s power: e.g. I’m *such* a man I can get away with wearing this dress.

The poisonous core of modern masculinity is not about whether you wipe your ass or wear nail polish or take a shower. It’s an obsession with power, status, and, most troublingly, *dominance over other people*.

Read 7 tweets

Michael Sanderson

@msanderson_MACo

I'll use this thread to keep a "tally" of the required county contribution under the Kirwan Formula Workgroup Plan today. It stands at $1.35B under the draft thus far. We all expect the details to change today, but unclear on ripple effects. DLS doc: dls.maryland.gov/pubs/prod/NoPb…

On page 5 of that document, see the $8,051m column for current law mandated spending, and then the $8,995m column. That's NOW versus (draft) FULL KIRWAN in FY2030. However, it's understated significantly...

The $8,995m column includes the effect of counties *reducing* their contribution below current MOE requirements - they can't do that. So, a clearer look would be to compare the *greater* of the two numbers versus the current law.... #Kirwan #Blueprint4MD

Read 8 tweets

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي

@iyad_elbaghdadi

My only promise to you is that I'll be on the battlefield until I die.

I should explain. Other dads can promise their children safety or stability. I don't know if I can promise that. This is what I can promise.

That I will fight for you and for everyone until the day I die.

Read 3 tweets

Allison McCann

@atmccann

the situation in Syria is quickly changing, so here's a brief visual thread with a few questions we've been trying to answer since U.S. forces withdrew last week nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Who will control northeast Syria now? About 1/3 of the country was controlled by a Kurdish-led militia, the SDF, but already Turkish forces and the Syrian government are contesting border areas

How will this turn out? The Kurds face an enormous blow to their hopes of retaining autonomy. And in the majority-Arab areas of northeast Syria, there are fears that if Assad enters, that opens the door for armed opposition or extremists too

Read 6 tweets

Amanda Marcotte

@AmandaMarcotte

Huh, I don’t know how I haven’t seen this before, but it seems that there were *multiple* reports of the Fred Trump arrest at the KKK rally, and they erase all doubt that he was there to support the KKK. vice.com/en_us/article/…

Found that this morning, because I’ve long wondered if Trump’s long-standing desire to destroy the post-WWII order (read more here: slate.com/news-and-polit…) isn’t just a favor to Putin. If Trump’s dad has pro-fascist sympathies, it might go back to that, as well.

It’s just interesting to me that Trump, whose racism is very sincere but who is half-literate and incurious, has always had a somewhat coherent ideology that is reminiscent of pre-WWII fascist sympathizers. A father who had opinions in that manner would explain a lot.

Read 5 tweets

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