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I'm going to make a falsifiable prediction that will either make me look brilliant or destroy my credibility:
The traditional 60/40 portfolio will experience a 25%+ drawdown before the end of 2027.
Here's my exact reasoning: 🧵
The traditional 60/40 portfolio will experience a 25%+ drawdown before the end of 2027.
Here's my exact reasoning: 🧵
First, what counts as "traditional 60/40"?
60% U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or similar)
40% U.S. investment-grade bonds (10yr+ duration)
Rebalanced quarterly
This is the benchmark for $18 trillion in assets.
60% U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or similar)
40% U.S. investment-grade bonds (10yr+ duration)
Rebalanced quarterly
This is the benchmark for $18 trillion in assets.
The setup is already in place:
Current environment:
S&P at ~6,000 (elevated valuations)
10-year yields at 4.5%
Stock-bond correlation at +0.33
Inflation running 3%+ (above target)
Fiscal deficits $1T+ annually
We're one catalyst away from crisis.
Current environment:
S&P at ~6,000 (elevated valuations)
10-year yields at 4.5%
Stock-bond correlation at +0.33
Inflation running 3%+ (above target)
Fiscal deficits $1T+ annually
We're one catalyst away from crisis.
Everyones using ChatGPT for content writing. Meanwhile Claude is quietly outperforming it on every platform.
I switched 3 months ago and my engagement jumped 340% across all socials.
The secret isnt Claude itself. Its the 10 prompts that make it write like an actual human, not a corporate robot.
Here they are: 🧵
I switched 3 months ago and my engagement jumped 340% across all socials.
The secret isnt Claude itself. Its the 10 prompts that make it write like an actual human, not a corporate robot.
Here they are: 🧵
1. The Coffee Shop Test
Prompt:
"Write this like you're explaining it to a friend over coffee. No marketing speak. No corporate jargon. Just straight talk about [topic]. If it sounds like a LinkedIn post, rewrite it."
Claude actually gets this. ChatGPT still sounds like it's pitching a SaaS product.
Prompt:
"Write this like you're explaining it to a friend over coffee. No marketing speak. No corporate jargon. Just straight talk about [topic]. If it sounds like a LinkedIn post, rewrite it."
Claude actually gets this. ChatGPT still sounds like it's pitching a SaaS product.
2. Voice Finder
Prompt:
"Give me 5 different ways to say this same idea. Make each one sound like a different person wrote it - one cynical, one excited, one skeptical, one matter-of-fact, one surprised."
This is how I find MY voice. Pick the version that feels most natural, then Claude refines it.
Prompt:
"Give me 5 different ways to say this same idea. Make each one sound like a different person wrote it - one cynical, one excited, one skeptical, one matter-of-fact, one surprised."
This is how I find MY voice. Pick the version that feels most natural, then Claude refines it.
@SahanJournal You really should report precisely what the person’s status is.
The article seems to use “refugee” and “asylum seeker” interchangeably.
They have different legal meanings in this context.
The article seems to use “refugee” and “asylum seeker” interchangeably.
They have different legal meanings in this context.
@SahanJournal If she “immigrated legally to the United States,” why doesn’t she have her green card?
Perhaps because she didn’t “immigrate legally to the United States.”
Precision in your reporting is needed.
Perhaps because she didn’t “immigrate legally to the United States.”
Precision in your reporting is needed.
@SahanJournal @threadreaderapp please unroll
🧵THREAD:
@NBCNews aired a 10-minute “video investigation” into Israel’s military accountability.
It spent 9 seconds on Oct. 7 — the event that started the war.
Here’s how the rest of the story was built.
@NBCNews aired a 10-minute “video investigation” into Israel’s military accountability.
It spent 9 seconds on Oct. 7 — the event that started the war.
Here’s how the rest of the story was built.
Out of 606 seconds, NBC devoted 9 seconds to Oct. 7.
The words "tunnels" and "hostages" were never mentioned.
Everything that followed was framed without that context.
The words "tunnels" and "hostages" were never mentioned.
Everything that followed was framed without that context.
Take away Oct. 7, tunnels, and hostages and the war stops making sense.
1/ Why has Russia failed so abysmally at providing secure battlefield communications to its troops in Ukraine? The answer, concludes Russian warblogger Oleg Tsarev, is that the military communications budget has been looted for years by corrupt generals and contractors. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev relates the dismal history of Russia's military communications programmes:
"I remember how, at the beginning of the Special Military Operation, all units were buying Motorola radios. There was no other communications."
"I remember how, at the beginning of the Special Military Operation, all units were buying Motorola radios. There was no other communications."
3/ "Now, Elon Musk has shut down the Starlink terminals our military used in the Special Military Operation, and our communications at the front have been disrupted. I'm talking to military personnel: many say we still have virtually no communications of our own.
@basedregina @janvanruth11 @KassieTroy @IslanderWORLD There is no link to 'german fascism', because there never was such a thing, but an explanation why this happens in Germany does exist nevertheless.
Which might sound strange and apologetic, but hear me out, what I say will make sense.
Many people believe that 'fascism' ...
1/
Which might sound strange and apologetic, but hear me out, what I say will make sense.
Many people believe that 'fascism' ...
1/
@basedregina @janvanruth11 @KassieTroy @IslanderWORLD 2) ... is a rightwing german, a 'nazi thing', but it originated in Italy and was the special italian brand of originally /socialist/ totalitarian thinking.
Italian fascism had its origin in the italian alliances of WW1 combat veterans, Fasci italiani di combattimento ...
2/>
Italian fascism had its origin in the italian alliances of WW1 combat veterans, Fasci italiani di combattimento ...
2/>
@basedregina @janvanruth11 @KassieTroy @IslanderWORLD 3) ... who opposed the italian government and wanted a more nationalistic policy.
And the political orientation of its members was at first all over the place. You had right-wingers and monarchist, but an overwhelmingly huge part were left-wingers and socialists.
What ...
3/>
And the political orientation of its members was at first all over the place. You had right-wingers and monarchist, but an overwhelmingly huge part were left-wingers and socialists.
What ...
3/>
🧵UNSEALED: New indictment against Zubayr al-Bakoush for his role in the September 11, 2012, terrorist attack on the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, Libya.
Charges include conspiracy, terrorism, attempted murder, murder, and arson.
1/n
Charges include conspiracy, terrorism, attempted murder, murder, and arson.
1/n
Al-Bakoush is the third person to be apprehended and charged in connection to the Benghazi attack.
The other two are Ahmed Salim Faraj Abu Khatallah and Mustafa Muhammad Muftah al-Imam.
2/n
The other two are Ahmed Salim Faraj Abu Khatallah and Mustafa Muhammad Muftah al-Imam.
2/n
Abu Khattala was indicted in August of 2013 and captured by Delta Force in June 2014.
He was convicted in 2017, sentenced in 2018, but the sentence was later overturned due to it being WAY too low—just 22 years.
He was resentenced to 28 years and is now in the CO Supermax.
3/n
He was convicted in 2017, sentenced in 2018, but the sentence was later overturned due to it being WAY too low—just 22 years.
He was resentenced to 28 years and is now in the CO Supermax.
3/n
The lack of evidence for mastectomy in response to gender dysphoria applies equally to adults, yet the NHS makes over 1000 referrals a year for these surgeries (link in next tweet).
Removing a young woman's breasts in response to psychological distress is a dereliction of the clinician's duty of care to protect vulnerable patients from harm.
The question is, what will it take for the NHS to alter course?
Removing a young woman's breasts in response to psychological distress is a dereliction of the clinician's duty of care to protect vulnerable patients from harm.
The question is, what will it take for the NHS to alter course?
The thousands of NHS mastectomy referrals in response to gender dysphoria are only one part of the picture given the numbers of crowd-funders to get access to these surgeries privately, and some patients who are able to self-fund.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/1…
archive.ph/A9m2x
telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/1…
archive.ph/A9m2x
@threadreaderapp unroll
NEW: The controversy over the 2020 presidential election took a sharp turn last week when the FBI executed a search warrant at the offices of the Fulton County Election Board in Georgia. It’s a dramatic development.
Atlanta’s Fulton County was the epicenter of Donald Trump’s disputed loss of the state in 2020. Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton called the search warrant a “vindication” for Trump. Candidate Trump “almost went to jail for raising the questions that have now been validated by a federal magistrate,” Fitton told Newsmax.
“The reason the search warrant was approved was because a federal magistrate looked at the facts and made the conclusion that there was a reasonable belief that a crime had taken place…specifically election crimes.”
@eevildivaa recording has started lol
@eevildivaa @threadreaderapp unroll
@eevildivaa @grok can you help kashish tuteja
🧵 THREAD: Is this really the bottom in silver? Let’s break it down.
1/
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.
Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
Calls for a “silver bottom” are getting louder.
Leverage washed out. Margins raised. Asia volatile.
On paper, that looks constructive.
But paper ≠ physical.
2/
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.
That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
Yes, leveraged longs were flushed.
Yes, positioning has weakened.
Yes, ETF outflows suggest speculative fatigue.
That clears traders.
It does not create metal.
1/ Did @OpenAI just break California’s new AI safety law?
The answer appears to be yes, and OpenAI could owe millions in fines. 🧵
The answer appears to be yes, and OpenAI could owe millions in fines. 🧵
2/ Since December, OpenAI has been racing to reclaim the title of best coding AI.
Yesterday, they launched GPT-5.3-Codex, regaining the lead — but there's a problem: they may have broken California law to do it.
Yesterday, they launched GPT-5.3-Codex, regaining the lead — but there's a problem: they may have broken California law to do it.
3/ Some context: California's SB 53 requires major AI companies to publish a safety framework for how they'll prevent catastrophic risks — defined as >50 deaths or >$1B in property damage from their models.
