Thread by @OnChainWizard

Want to know why nearly every token except for BTC & ETH continues to bleed out?

It's partly a matter of buyside flows + retail interest. Let's look at some quick data to back it up, including what to watch for to start getting bidding again.

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The consensus view is that everyone has taken risk off, and there is no incremental bid for riskier alt tokens. But how much has buy side behavior changed in the past 4 months?

Let's start with "smart money" buys on @nansen_ai. When I wrote about whale watching on April 3rd, the amount of 7 day token inflows for non-stable + non-BTC/ETH (top 10 token movements) were +/- $41M (FYI this is just on ETH)

onchainwizard.substack.com/p/onchain-wiza…

In the last 7 days, the comparable top 10 token flows for non majors/stables were just +/- $9M. Or a decline of -78%.

Compare this to changes in WETH holdings for the smart money cohort for example: back in April the trailing 30 day inflows were just $40mm for WETH. In the past 30 days the inflows were a whopping $192mm. Or a 4.8x increase.

Obviously these are just historical snapshots, but I find the rate of change between the 2 groups interesting. I am personally watching this "rate of change" in smart alt token inflows to have a barometer on the furthest end of the risk spectrum, which helps inform when to bid

Especially when we are hopefully getting near the end of both 3AC contagion + onchain fund redemptions/capitulation. But another piece of the puzzle is retail flows/users.

Lets look at Uniswap monthly active users from @DuneAnalytics . During the May 2021 and November 2021 peaks, "New" MAUs peaked at 617k and 370k respectively. New users are down to just 87k or total MAUs at 308k in June vs. 1mm at the peak (-70%)

Compare this to NFTs, where actually the number of active users is now higher than Uniswap (per @chainalysis), at ~750k in Q2-22 (with over 300k coming from Opensea alone). The TLDR is that new money is coming in via NFTs and leaving the rest of the on-chain trading world.

You can see this another way via @chainalysis where the avg wallet age has actually been going down and is much younger for NFTs, while the rest have mostly ticked up (users are seasoning or getting older basically everywhere else)

TLDR: smart money flows into non majors / stables is -78%, Uniswap users are -70%, while NFT users have held up much better + is the avenue by which new $ is flowing in.

I'll be writing about this a bit more later this week (who is still making $), but new users flocking in (buyside interest) has actually led to winning trades in some NFTs this year. Here is an example of a SOL NFT where buyers snagged a 100x+ this year

https://twitter.com/nansen_alpha/status/1544231465365303298?s=20&t=-6coNguwhLuW3_P6ZSEBtw